Angels Take Home WS Win

Milwaukee drops a game from the National League Championship Series because of their losses in Chicago this week.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed BOS in 5 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Playoff Pace: July 30, 2008

This post is a measure of who's projected to win all divisions plus the wild cards, and how far behind the rest of the teams are. For instance, Tampa Bay is in the AL East lead with 91 wins, but Boston is just a couple percentage points behind and also gains 91 wins. Any team over .500 in this measurement has a shot at the division title or wild card, but as the season draws nearer to the end, start focusing on teams in the .800s or .900s.

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (97 - 65)
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (89 - 73)
4 - BOS - 0.9743 (91 - 71)
5 - MIN - 0.8728 (88 - 74)
6 - NYY - 0.6567 (87 - 75)
7 - DET - 0.5363 (83 - 79)
8 - OAK - 0.4896 (82 - 80)
9 - TEX - 0.4604 (81 - 81)
10 - TOR - 0.2915 (83 - 79)
11 - CLE - 0.0549 (77 - 85)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (79 - 83)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (68 - 94)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - MIN - 0.8758 (88 - 74)
3 - NYY - 0.8402 (87 - 75)
4 - DET - 0.6842 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6565 (83 - 79)
6 - OAK - 0.6222 (82 - 80)
7 - TEX - 0.5850 (81 - 81)
8 - BAL - 0.5099 (79 - 83)
9 - CLE - 0.4102 (77 - 85)
10 - KAN - 0.3790 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (68 - 94)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - NYM - 1.0000 (85 - 77)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (82 - 80)
4 - PHI - 0.9925 (85 - 77)
5 - LAD - 0.9731 (81 - 81)
6 - FLA - 0.8441 (81 - 81)
7 - ATL - 0.7288 (78 - 84)
8 - MIL - 0.6630 (86 - 76)
9 - COL - 0.6449 (76 - 86)
10 - STL - 0.5664 (85 - 77)
11 - SFO - 0.2926 (70 - 92)
12 - HOU - 0.0863 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0.0528 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - MIL - 1.0000 (86 - 76)
2 - PHI - 0.9548 (85 - 77)
3 - STL - 0.9438 (85 - 77)
4 - LAD - 0.8184 (81 - 81)
5 - FLA - 0.8120 (81 - 81)
6 - ATL - 0.7011 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0.6643 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0.6448 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0.6140 (76 - 86)
10 - COL - 0.6122 (76 - 86)
11 - SFO - 0.3908 (70 - 92)
12 - SDG - 0.2070 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

Toughest Schedule So Far: Royals and Rays

Major League Baseball Strength of Schedule Rankings
1 - KAN - Opponents #3 in wins and #1 in runs scored/allowed
2 - TAM - Opponents #2 in wins and #2 in runs scored/allowed
3 - BAL - Opponents #1 in wins and #3 in runs scored/allowed
4 - BOS - Opponents #4 in wins and #6 in runs scored/allowed
5 - TOR - Opponents #5 in wins and #5 in runs scored/allowed
6 - MIN - Opponents #9 in wins and #4 in runs scored/allowed
7 - CHW - Opponents #8 in wins and #7 in runs scored/allowed
8 - CLE - Opponents #6 in wins and #11 in runs scored/allowed
9 - OAK - Opponents #7 in wins and #14 in runs scored/allowed
10 - SEA - Opponents #10 in wins and #9 in runs scored/allowed
11 - NYY - Opponents #11 in wins and #10 in runs scored/allowed
12 - DET - Opponents #12 in wins and #12 in runs scored/allowed
13 - TEX - Opponents #13 in wins and #13 in runs scored/allowed
14 - LAA - Opponents #14 in wins and #8 in runs scored/allowed
15 - HOU - Opponents #15 in wins and #16 in runs scored/allowed
16 - CIN - Opponents #18 in wins and #15 in runs scored/allowed
17 - PIT - Opponents #16 in wins and #18 in runs scored/allowed
18 - COL - Opponents #20 in wins and #19 in runs scored/allowed
19 - WAS - Opponents #17 in wins and #20 in runs scored/allowed
20 - MIL - Opponents #19 in wins and #21 in runs scored/allowed
21 - SFO - Opponents #21 in wins and #17 in runs scored/allowed
22 - SDG - Opponents #27 in wins and #22 in runs scored/allowed
23 - PHI - Opponents #24 in wins and #23 in runs scored/allowed
24 - ATL - Opponents #23 in wins and #26 in runs scored/allowed
25 - LAD - Opponents #26 in wins and #24 in runs scored/allowed
26 - STL - Opponents #22 in wins and #29 in runs scored/allowed
27 - NYM - Opponents #28 in wins and #25 in runs scored/allowed
28 - CHC - Opponents #25 in wins and #30 in runs scored/allowed
29 - ARI - Opponents #29 in wins and #27 in runs scored/allowed
30 - FLA - Opponents #30 in wins and #28 in runs scored/allowed

Four Teams Projected To Win 90+ Games; Another Can't Break 60 Wins

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - LAA : 97 - 65
2 - CHC : 92 - 70
3 - TAM : 91 - 71
4 - BOS : 91 - 71
5 - CHW : 89 - 73
6 - MIN : 88 - 74
7 - NYY : 87 - 75
8 - MIL : 86 - 76
9 - NYM : 85 - 77
10 - PHI : 85 - 77
11 - STL : 85 - 77
12 - DET : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 83 - 79
14 - OAK : 82 - 80
15 - ARI : 82 - 80
16 - LAD : 81 - 81
17 - FLA : 81 - 81
18 - TEX : 81 - 81
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - ATL : 78 - 84
21 - HOU : 77 - 85
22 - CLE : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 76 - 86
26 - COL : 76 - 86
27 - SFO : 70 - 92
28 - SEA : 68 - 94
29 - SDG : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103

AL East Has Won 56% Of Non-Division Games; NL West Only 42.5%

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.5%
2 - NL - 37.5%

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.591 ( 149-103 , equals 95.8 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.409 ( 103-149 , equals 66.2 wins over one season)

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 70.4%
3 - AL-W - 60.9%
4 - NL-C - 56.1%
5 - NL-E - 23.1%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.562 ( 178-139 , equals 91.0 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.530 ( 197-175 , equals 85.8 wins over one season)
3 - AL-C - 0.506 ( 158-154 , equals 82.0 wins over one season)
4 - AL-W - 0.505 ( 150-147 , equals 81.8 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.476 ( 156-172 , equals 77.0 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.425 ( 147-199 , equals 68.8 wins over one season)

Interleague Play Records by Division
1 - AL-C - 0.644
2 - AL-E - 0.578
3 - AL-W - 0.542
4 - NL-C - 0.452
5 - NL-E - 0.436
6 - NL-W - 0.333

Baseball Rankings Now: July 30, 2008 -- Detroit Climbs To #8 Overall

AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - MIN
6 - NYY
7 - DET
8 - TOR
9 - TEX
10 - OAK
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - ARI
7 - LAD
8 - FLA
9 - ATL
10 - HOU
11 - COL
12 - PIT
13 - CIN
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Overall Power Rankings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - MIN
6 - CHC
7 - NYY
8 - DET
9 - TOR
10 - MIL
11 - NYM
12 - PHI
13 - TEX
14 - OAK
15 - STL
16 - BAL
17 - ARI
18 - LAD
19 - FLA
20 - CLE
21 - KAN
22 - ATL
23 - HOU
24 - COL
25 - PIT
26 - CIN
27 - SEA
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

Angels Can Win 96 Games...Astros Most Balanced Ballclub

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - LAA : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 92 - 70
3 - CHC : 91 - 71
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - NYY : 88 - 74
7 - MIN : 87 - 75
8 - MIL : 87 - 75
9 - NYM : 85 - 77
10 - PHI : 85 - 77
11 - STL : 84 - 78
12 - TOR : 83 - 79
13 - DET : 83 - 79
14 - OAK : 83 - 79
15 - FLA : 82 - 80
16 - ARI : 82 - 80
17 - LAD : 81 - 81
18 - TEX : 81 - 81
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - ATL : 79 - 83
21 - CLE : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - COL : 76 - 86
25 - KAN : 76 - 86
26 - PIT : 76 - 86
27 - SFO : 70 - 92
28 - SEA : 68 - 94
29 - SDG : 66 - 96
30 - WAS : 60 - 102

---

Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

1 - HOU
2 - LAD
3 - MIL - too dependent on own division
4 - TEX - not good enough at home
5 - FLA
6 - WAS
7 - OAK
8 - SDG - too dependent on own division
9 - TOR - too dependent on own division
10 - NYY
11 - SEA - not good enough at home
12 - LAA - not good enough at home
13 - PHI - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
14 - KAN - not good enough at home
15 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
16 - ARI - too dependent on own division
17 - NYM
18 - CIN
19 - BAL - not good enough in own division
20 - PIT - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
21 - CLE - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
22 - DET - not good enough in own division
23 - SFO - not good enough at home
24 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
25 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - MIN - too dependent on own division
28 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
29 - COL - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division

Cubs Now Take Angels To 6 Games In World Series, Can't Close Out LA

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 7 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: July 29, 2008 -- Angels On Top Again

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.6%
2 - NL - 37.4%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - MIN
6 - NYY
7 - CHC
8 - TOR
9 - MIL
10 - DET

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 67.4%
3 - AL-W - 59.7%
4 - NL-C - 52.7%
5 - NL-E - 23.8%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - MIN
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - DET
9 - OAK
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - LAD
9 - ATL
10 - COL
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - PIT
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Los Angeles Angels Win World Series Over Tired Cubs

Movements of note since the last playoff prediction a few weeks ago:

1. Boston falls to AL seed no. 2 with 93 wins. The Angels climb two spots and take the top seed with 96 wins.
2. The White Sox win 92 games yet fall to seed no. 3, but Tampa retains the wild card with 91 wins.
3. The Phillies fall completely out of the playoffs and cede the second NL seed to the New York Mets, who win 86 games this year.
4. Milwaukee's 88 wins kick out St. Louis (at 84 wins) for the National League wild card -- and the Brewers make it a close I-94 NL Championship series as well.
   

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 7 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 5 games. ***

Complete American League Dominance

Even the NL Central's 52.4% out-of-division winning percentage can't save them from the fact that they only won 45.2% of their interleague games.

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.6%
2 - NL - 37.4%

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.591 ( 149-103 , equals 95.8 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.409 ( 103-149 , equals 66.2 wins over one season)

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 64.7%
3 - AL-W - 58.7%
4 - NL-C - 49.0%
5 - NL-E - 23.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.565 ( 178-137 , equals 91.5 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.524 ( 193-175 , equals 85.0 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.505 ( 148-145 , equals 81.8 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.503 ( 156-154 , equals 81.5 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.479 ( 156-170 , equals 77.5 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.427 ( 147-197 , equals 69.2 wins over one season)

Interleague Play Records by Division
1 - AL-C - 0.644
2 - AL-E - 0.578
3 - AL-W - 0.542
4 - NL-C - 0.452
5 - NL-E - 0.436
6 - NL-W - 0.333

Baseball Rankings Now: July 28, 2008 -- Angels Best in Baseball

AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - NYY
6 - MIN
7 - DET
8 - TOR
9 - OAK
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - ARI
7 - LAD
8 - FLA
9 - ATL
10 - COL
11 - CIN
12 - HOU
13 - PIT
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Overall Power Rankings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - NYY
6 - MIN
7 - CHC
8 - MIL
9 - DET
10 - TOR
11 - OAK
12 - NYM
13 - TEX
14 - PHI
15 - STL
16 - BAL
17 - ARI
18 - LAD
19 - FLA
20 - CLE
21 - ATL
22 - KAN
23 - COL
24 - CIN
25 - HOU
26 - PIT
27 - SEA
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

Back on Track

Baseball Playoffs Now returns from the Tuscan sun with a long-awaited database and stats update.  I caught up on baseball news upon returning home...

Poor National League - an All-Star loss plus sinking further in the interleague battle.  No wonder my computer is virtually laughing at any NL team in the rankings.

Here's how I did on the July predictions (using rankings as of July 23, the date of my return, even though this post is only being written five days afterward):

1. "Toronto overtakes Baltimore, but can't get any higher than 4th in the AL East." -- Perfect.  The Jays are 1.5 games up on the Orioles, but stuck in 4th place 6 games behind the Yankees.
   
2. "Kansas City, tied for last in the Central, earns it by losing at a faster rate than Cleveland." -- Almost, but not quite.  Kansas City remains tied for last, but ranked 0.001 above the Indians in win-loss percentage.
   
3. "Philadelphia and Washington anchor the top and bottom of the NL East, but when we return, the central three teams will rank #2 Atlanta, #3 Florida, #4 Mets." -- Ouch!  I was way off on the NL East, which ended up seeing the Mets power to first, leading Philly, Florida, Atlanta, and Washington, respectively.
   
4. "Pittsburgh falls behind Houston for last place in the NL Central." -- Only a game off, but Houston still earns last place, a dramatic fall from a month or so ago (2nd in the Central by far).
   
5. "The NL West remains boring and noncompetitive. Arizona will still be in first place and will have a sub-.500 record." -- Spot on.  The Diamondbacks' 50-51 record is good enough for first place in the West.  No other division has more than 2 teams with fewer than 50 wins.  The West has four.
   
6. "Milwaukee leapfrogs St. Louis for the #2 position in the Central and consequently is in the wild card lead. Bratwurst around the nation quiver in fear as Brewer Nation assembles to tailgate. Troubled pitcher Eric Gagne returns to Miller Park -- but only as a Sausage Race runner. Randall Simon attends a game to give Gagne the cathartic thumpin' Milwaukee fans need." -- Tongue-in-cheek but pitch perfect.  The Brewers start hitting crazy good after the All-Star break and add CC Sabathia to create a scary pitching corps (at least for the NL).  Eric Gagne does indeed return to the team and wins 3 of 5 games.  Brewers' late-summer-collapse watch begins in earnest.

Of six predictions, I correctly foresaw three situations, got 2 of them half-way, and completely airballed the last.  That's pretty good for a three-week vacation.