Who's getting screwed?

Here's an interesting statistic for baseball fans in the know to think over:

Place in Division	Avg Record
1	0.6067
2	0.5269
3	0.5162
4	0.4365
5	0.3942

That is, the average team in first place in its division has a record of .607.

Once we know the average placement for every record, we can see who's getting screwed through unlucky division membership. Number one on our list: the Milwaukee Brewers, who continue to trade spots with St. Louis and the Chicago Cubs for 1st-3rd place in the NL Central. Right now the Brewers (with a .577 record) are in 1.37th place in the average baseball division, yet they hold third in the Central.

Two other unlucky teams have over a full place difference between their current place and where they would be in the average division:

Philadelphia (.556 and in 3rd in the NL East) places 1.64th place on average
Tampa Bay (.539 and in 3rd in the AL East) places 1.86th place on average

The lucky teams who actually deserve worse than they have?

Minnesota (in 2nd and really deserves 3.69th place)
Kansas City (exactly the same as Minnesota)
Los Angeles Dodgers (in 2nd and really deserves 3.2th place)
San Francisco (in 3rd and really deserves 4.19th place)

Here's the simple reason why the old league pennant was a great system: choosing playoff contenders through divisions is a yearly gamble. No division is the same, so Milwaukee gets screwed and Minnesota gets lucky. The pre-1969 pennant race, where each team played each other league opponent a set amount of times, was a perfectly fair method of choosing champions (forgetting, for the moment, inequality between AL and NL going into the World Series).

But as long as the public wants playoffs - and you know we do - we'll have to put up with the warts. Other major sports have tried to equalize a naturally unequal situation: hockey reseeds opponents between playoff round 1 and 2, and the NBA lets sixteen teams into the playoffs. Maybe baseball will have something up its sleeve someday.

LA Angels Not *That* Divine

Established baseball ranking sources are showing a tendency to overrate the Angels (#16 in our ratings). Here's the rundown:
Gridmarks placed Los Angeles at no. 11.
TeamRankings and AOL Sports gave them seventh place.
CBS and FOX Sports think LA is fourth-best.
Last week's ESPN Power Rankings awarded the Angels third place.
Only Coaches' Corner agrees with us: 16th is the best spot for Los Angeles.

There is no way Los Angeles is even in the top quarter of MLB teams:

Runs scored v. allowed is at a ratio of 1.047 to 1, fourteenth-best in baseball. The Angels' two major competitors score and defend much better (Seattle 1.117 to 1, Oakland 1.396 to 1; tenth-best and second-best in baseball, respectively).

Los Angeles has indeed scored an impressive number of quality wins (fifth place in the MLB) but against the 26th-easiest schedule in the majors. Their quality RPI (record + strength of schedule) is 14th.

Score analysis places the Angels in 18th place, taking into account every run scored/allowed against an infinite strength-of-schedule algorithm.

Los Angeles has a slightly-better-than-average record against a slightly-worse-than-average division (7-6 against the 4th-best division), rated 16th in division play.

In every single metric, the Angels are a middle-of-the-road team. That is why our Overrated Scale places Los Angeles squarely as the second-most-overrated team in baseball. Sportswriters love them because their stats are good and the names are big, and it's easy to concentrate on 17 wins (tied for second-most in baseball) and forget about how the Angels got there.

As always, if Los Angeles can capture a division championship or wild-card spot, the journey to the postseason becomes moot. But Baseball Playoffs Now projects not only a 87-75 final record for the Angels, but a third-place finish in a four-team division (Oakland is on pace for 104-58 and Seattle can make 88-74). Unless Los Angeles can win big upcoming series hosting Oakland (now) and a tough road trip to Seattle and Oakland (6 division road games in 7 days) in early June, the Angels will have a tough time making it to the All-Star break intact.

White Sox Still in Championship Lead

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed SEA in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHW over no. 2 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

AL Ratings - Team
1 - OAK
2 - CHW
3 - TAM
4 - SEA
5 - BAL
6 - NYY
7 - BOS
8 - CLE
9 - LAA
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - MIN
13 - KAN
14 - TEX

NL Ratings - Team
1 - ARI
2 - CHC
3 - MIL
4 - NYM
5 - STL
6 - PHI
7 - HOU
8 - CIN
9 - ATL
10 - FLA
11 - LAD
12 - COL
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - PIT
16 - SDG

Baseball Ratings Now: April 29

AL Ratings - Team
1 - OAK
2 - CHW
3 - TAM
4 - NYY
5 - BAL
6 - CLE
7 - BOS
8 - SEA
9 - LAA
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - MIN
13 - KAN
14 - TEX

NL Ratings - Team
1 - ARI
2 - CHC
3 - MIL
4 - NYM
5 - PHI
6 - STL
7 - CIN
8 - ATL
9 - FLA
10 - LAD
11 - HOU
12 - COL
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - PIT
16 - SDG

Atlanta May Unfortunately Win Its Division

Once-14-consecutive-division-champion Atlanta is projected to take the NL East again, according to Baseball Playoffs Now's algorithms. With a record of 95-67, the Braves will beat out the rest of the East (yet fall in 4 games in the first playoff series):

New York Mets: 89-73
Philadelphia: 88-74
Florida: 83-79
Washington: 58-104

Atlanta ranks no. 1 in our new "May Unfortunately Win Its Division" rankings, marking the greatest disparity between projected record and current team power rating. In other words, the Braves haven't proven that they deserve to win 95 games. Their current rating is only sixteenth in the league (and they sit in a division with #8 New York Mets, #13 Philadelphia, #17 Florida, and #23 Washington). Why does the third-ranked team in the East earn the division championship?

The simple answer is that the Braves have a much better runs-scored/-allowed ratio. Atlanta has scored 124 runs and allowed 98 runs (a ratio of 1.265 to 1). Let's look at their division opponents:

New York Mets: 1.119 to 1
Philadelphia: 1.088 to 1
Florida: 0.974 to 1
Washington: 0.736 to 1

Therefore Florida, sitting at a record of 15-10, is not going to remain #1 in the East. They don't have the offensive and defensive guts to do so. Overtaking them will be Atlanta, a team who can - ploddingly - creep up on both New York and Florida and do just enough to make the postseason.

But given the Braves' mediocre performance so far (fifteenth in quality wins against the twenty-fifth easiest schedule) and a computer analysis that says they are in truth just marginally better than their current record of 12-13, Atlanta will only fall into the division lead by accident. And unless they show flashes of brilliance soon, they will also fall quickly in the playoffs.

White Sox over Cubs in World Series

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed LAA in 3 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 1 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHW over no. 2 seed CHC in 5 games. ***

Overrated Kansas City, Underrated Seattle

Right now Seattle is suffering from being in the same division as the Angels and A's. Although the Mariners have lost more games than they have won, Baseball Playoffs Now rates their schedule as the 5th hardest in the majors. Combined with a mediocre record, Seattle rates around the 70th percentile in all of our major categories (wins-losses, score analysis, and division strength). Quite a surprising result for a team whose record is only .462 at the moment, but an even record against the Angels (#15 in our ratings) and a winning record against the A's (#4) and Rays (#5) provides enough rationale for our computer ratings.

Kansas City, on the other hand, stands at #28 in the Baseball Playoffs Now ratings, despite a .440 record. The Royals have played only twenty-fifth-best in wins and losses against the league's nineteenth-easiest schedule, and are in fourth place in the MLB's second-easiest division. After sweeping the Tigers (#24) and winning series against the Yankees (#9) and Blue Jays (#22) - albeit at home - Kansas City looked good. But a seven-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Angels (#15), Oakland (#4), and Cleveland (#8) left the Royals reeling. A strong start has not been enough to solidify this Kansas City team, earning them the current most-overrated-team-in-baseball position.

White Sox Win Championship

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed LAA in 3 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 1 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHW over no. 2 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Warning Sign for Milwaukee

[Baseball Playoffs Now data, based on win-loss analysis only]

Milwaukee's current rating: 0.9540 out of 1.000
Milwaukee's current rating in the NL Central only: 0.5345 out of 1.000

The Brewers are second-last in the league in division play, topping only Oakland. Milwaukee is certainly struggling within their division, having to cope with the resurgent Cubs and underdog Cardinals, in addition to a Houston team making a run at 3rd place. Their current record shows as many games in the loss column as wins.

Baseball Playoffs Now ranks Milwaukee as the fourth-best team in the majors, BUT the Brewers won't be able to capitalize on their unseen strengths unless they can get some division wins and get into the playoffs. The current end-of-season projections for the NL Central:

Chicago Cubs: 107-55
St. Louis: 96-66
Milwaukee: 90-72
Houston: 84-78
Cincinnati: 68-94
Pittsburgh: 55-107

Not only will the Brewers miss the division championship, they lose the wild-card spot by 6 games to St. Louis, who is projected to make it to the postseason. As always, the road to the postseason begins within the division. Milwaukee needs to step it up a notch.

The Chicago 'L' World Series

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed LAA in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHC over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

Cubs over A's in 2008 World Series

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed LAA in 4 games.
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 3 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed NYM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 1 seed CHW in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHC over no. 2 seed OAK in 5 games. ***

Ohio's Hidden Strength

Top two entries in the Baseball Playoffs Now scale of underrated teams:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Cleveland Indians

Here are two teams to watch. Cincinnati and Cleveland are faring almost identically by win-loss record (9-12 and 8-12, respectively), yet our ratings place them much higher than mere record would indicate. Cincinnati is playing better by far right now, earning the #8 rating in the majors, and Cleveland isn't doing too bad either at #16.

The Reds owe their high rating to playing generally well against the third hardest schedule in baseball. Fighting against the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs (all top-10 teams in the majors), Cincinnati has swung from poor losses (by 9 runs against Chicago) to great wins (by 8 runs against Milwaukee). Even more impressive is a series win against Arizona, the best team in major league baseball. With upcoming games against Houston (#20 in our ratings), San Francisco (#21) and Atlanta (#19), we predict that Cincinnati will pull to .500 and start to challenge the first team in the top half of the NL Central to have mid-season woes.

The Cleveland Indians also scored an important series win against the Chicago White Sox (#6), and picked apart Oakland (#5) twice. Yet this two-faced team also suffered disastrous outings against Detroit (#25), where the Indians lost by 11 runs, as well as three separate three-game losing streaks in a season less than a month old. Baseball Playoffs Now ranks Cleveland as baseball's #2 underrated team because our scoring algorithm believes that the Indians can keep it close to most team in the MLB, but does Cleveland have the guts to pull out wins?

Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed SEA in 4 games.
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 3 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 7 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHC over no. 2 seed OAK in 5 games. ***

The Worst 12-7 Team in Baseball

Perhaps the victim of an easy schedule - always an integral part of our ratings - the Florida Marlins have distinguished themselves as MLB's most overrated team through the beginning of April. Though sixth in baseball in quality wins, thanks to their 12 victories, the W's have come at the expense of the league's most laughable schedule.

The Marlins have beaten the Mets in 10 innings, their best game. The remainder of Florida's wins are over Pittsburgh, Washington, Houston, and Atlanta, all except for the Braves under .500 (and Atlanta barely over that mark). Moreover, bad losses to the same teams (by scores of 7-2, 13-0, 9-2, 5-0, 5-1, and 8-0) show critical flaws in the Marlins' viability for the rest of the season.

Despite today's NL East-leading record, Baseball Playoffs Now projects Florida to stumble to a 79-83 record and fall to 4th place in the East, above perennial basement-dweller Washington.

The Brew City Enigmas

Shades of last season: the Milwaukee Brewers lost at home last night to the surprising St. Louis Cardinals, a maddening result for a team who remembers last season's foul end. Once in control of the division, the Brewers have fallen 2 games behind the Cubs and 1.5 games behind St. Louis due to untimely losses in both Wisconsin and Missouri. Milwaukee is now solidly in 3rd place in the NL Central. So how good are the Brewers, anyway?

Runs-scored and -allowed statistics suggest that Milwaukee is on pace to have won 10.7 games as of today. Their record of 11-8 show a slight tendency to win close games, and given the large number of difficult games played against both the division-leading Cubs and Cardinals, the casual opinion of Milwaukee is that the Brewers are slightly overachieving.

Baseball Playoffs Now rates Milwaukee #7 in quality wins and #12 in strength of schedule, yet the Brewers stand at #2 in Major League Baseball in ratings percentage index (a mixture of quality wins and strength of schedule). This discrepancy follows from the relationship between record and schedule. Teams who win have losing opponents by definition; therefore record and schedule are often inversely related. Arizona is #1 in record and #26 in strength of schedule. The same is true for the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis, Boston, and most of baseball's good teams. But Milwaukee bucks the trend by barely losing to good teams away and handily beating poor teams at home. By wins and losses only, Baseball Playoffs Now places Milwaukee at a true ratings percentage index (quality wins + schedule) just below league phenom Arizona, and well above the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis (#6 and #7 respectively).

Our scoring analysis algorithm places the Brewers between Chicago and St. Louis in runs scored/allowed, however. Surprisingly, Milwaukee is projected to score 0.6 runs more than St. Louis over a 100-game series in Milwaukee and 0.2 runs more than the Cardinals over that same series in St. Louis. But against Chicago, Milwaukee loses by 0.5 run per game in Illinois and by 0.1 run per game in Wisconsin.

In the final ratings, Milwaukee still controls second place in baseball. Given their current mediocre NL Central standing (third place), not to mention a ninth place standing in baseball, it is safe to say that the Brewers are underrated. Milwaukee is much better than its record states. With more losses like last night's, however, it's hard to know in which direction this team is going.

World Champion Arizona Diamondbacks

Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TOR in 4 games.
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 3 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.
No. 3 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ATL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 3 seed CHC in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed ARI over no. 2 seed OAK in 4 games. ***