Four Teams Projected To Win 90+ Games; Another Can't Break 60 Wins

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - LAA : 97 - 65
2 - CHC : 92 - 70
3 - TAM : 91 - 71
4 - BOS : 91 - 71
5 - CHW : 89 - 73
6 - MIN : 88 - 74
7 - NYY : 87 - 75
8 - MIL : 86 - 76
9 - NYM : 85 - 77
10 - PHI : 85 - 77
11 - STL : 85 - 77
12 - DET : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 83 - 79
14 - OAK : 82 - 80
15 - ARI : 82 - 80
16 - LAD : 81 - 81
17 - FLA : 81 - 81
18 - TEX : 81 - 81
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - ATL : 78 - 84
21 - HOU : 77 - 85
22 - CLE : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 76 - 86
26 - COL : 76 - 86
27 - SFO : 70 - 92
28 - SEA : 68 - 94
29 - SDG : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103

Angels Can Win 96 Games...Astros Most Balanced Ballclub

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - LAA : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 92 - 70
3 - CHC : 91 - 71
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - NYY : 88 - 74
7 - MIN : 87 - 75
8 - MIL : 87 - 75
9 - NYM : 85 - 77
10 - PHI : 85 - 77
11 - STL : 84 - 78
12 - TOR : 83 - 79
13 - DET : 83 - 79
14 - OAK : 83 - 79
15 - FLA : 82 - 80
16 - ARI : 82 - 80
17 - LAD : 81 - 81
18 - TEX : 81 - 81
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - ATL : 79 - 83
21 - CLE : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - COL : 76 - 86
25 - KAN : 76 - 86
26 - PIT : 76 - 86
27 - SFO : 70 - 92
28 - SEA : 68 - 94
29 - SDG : 66 - 96
30 - WAS : 60 - 102

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Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

1 - HOU
2 - LAD
3 - MIL - too dependent on own division
4 - TEX - not good enough at home
5 - FLA
6 - WAS
7 - OAK
8 - SDG - too dependent on own division
9 - TOR - too dependent on own division
10 - NYY
11 - SEA - not good enough at home
12 - LAA - not good enough at home
13 - PHI - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
14 - KAN - not good enough at home
15 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
16 - ARI - too dependent on own division
17 - NYM
18 - CIN
19 - BAL - not good enough in own division
20 - PIT - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
21 - CLE - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
22 - DET - not good enough in own division
23 - SFO - not good enough at home
24 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
25 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - MIN - too dependent on own division
28 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
29 - COL - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division

Tampa Closest To Wild Card By Far, Might Take AL East Anyway

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 96 - 66
3 - TAM : 95 - 67
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - LAA : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - NYY : 85 - 77
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - MIN : 85 - 77
11 - MIL : 84 - 78
12 - ATL : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 82 - 80
14 - BAL : 82 - 80
15 - DET : 81 - 81
16 - TEX : 81 - 81
17 - ARI : 80 - 82
18 - FLA : 80 - 82
19 - NYM : 80 - 82
20 - CLE : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 77 - 85
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 73 - 89
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 65 - 97
29 - SEA : 64 - 98
30 - WAS : 60 - 102

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AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
1 - LAA - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0,9565 (89 - 73)
5 - TAM - 0,9366 (95 - 67)
6 - TEX - 0,6317 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0,5740 (85 - 77)
8 - DET - 0,3037 (81 - 81)
9 - NYY - 0,2619 (85 - 77)
10 - CLE - 0,2258 (80 - 82)
11 - TOR - 0,0077 (82 - 80)
12 - BAL - 0,0000 (82 - 80)
12 - KAN - 0,0000 (77 - 85)
12 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1,0000 (95 - 67)
2 - OAK - 0,8154 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0,6890 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0,6636 (85 - 77)
5 - TOR - 0,5719 (82 - 80)
6 - BAL - 0,5683 (82 - 80)
7 - DET - 0,5434 (81 - 81)
8 - TEX - 0,5385 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0,5088 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0,4083 (77 - 85)
11 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - PHI - 1,0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1,0000 (80 - 82)
4 - ATL - 0,8525 (83 - 79)
5 - LAD - 0,8275 (78 - 84)
6 - FLA - 0,7531 (80 - 82)
7 - NYM - 0,7455 (80 - 82)
8 - STL - 0,5239 (85 - 77)
9 - SFO - 0,4964 (73 - 89)
10 - MIL - 0,4563 (84 - 78)
11 - COL - 0,1780 (68 - 94)
12 - HOU - 0,1607 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0,1558 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0,0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0,0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1,0000 (85 - 77)
2 - MIL - 0,9372 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0,9103 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0,8041 (80 - 82)
5 - NYM - 0,7960 (80 - 82)
6 - LAD - 0,7000 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0,6623 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0,6577 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0,5129 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0,4909 (73 - 89)
11 - COL - 0,2898 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0,1774 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

Final Record Predictions and Playoff Pace: June 25, 2008

The American League is pretty linear - that is, the teams' propensity to enter the postseason roughly corresponds to their record - but the National League is not even close. The Dodgers are projected to win 77 games but are #6 in propensity to win a divisional championship because they play in the West, whereas St. Louis will win 87 games but is only #8 on the divisional championship list because of their difficult Central division. The Cardinals, however, can gloat about their top position in the wild card race, where the Dodgers are only #7.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 98 - 64
2 - BOS : 95 - 67
3 - TAM : 92 - 70
4 - LAA : 92 - 70
5 - CHW : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 90 - 72
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - STL : 87 - 75
9 - MIL : 84 - 78
10 - NYY : 84 - 78
11 - MIN : 83 - 79
12 - ATL : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - TOR : 81 - 81
15 - ARI : 81 - 81
16 - BAL : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 81 - 81
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - CLE : 80 - 82
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 76 - 86
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 72 - 90
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 67 - 95
29 - SEA : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (95 - 67)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
4 - OAK - 0.9285 (90 - 72)
5 - TAM - 0.7595 (92 - 70)
6 - TEX - 0.5941 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0.4652 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.2712 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.2447 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.2084 (84 - 78)
11 - TOR - 0.0226 (81 - 81)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (81 - 81)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
2 - OAK - 0.9251 (90 - 72)
3 - NYY - 0.7093 (84 - 78)
4 - MIN - 0.6766 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6112 (81 - 81)
6 - BAL - 0.5993 (81 - 81)
7 - TEX - 0.5920 (81 - 81)
8 - DET - 0.5656 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.5504 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4104 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8416 (82 - 80)
5 - FLA - 0.8321 (82 - 80)
6 - LAD - 0.7322 (77 - 85)
7 - NYM - 0.7211 (79 - 83)
8 - STL - 0.5365 (87 - 75)
9 - MIL - 0.4461 (84 - 78)
10 - SFO - 0.3823 (72 - 90)
11 - PIT - 0.1872 (78 - 84)
12 - HOU - 0.1270 (76 - 86)
13 - COL - 0.1123 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (67 - 95)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
2 - MIL - 0.9197 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0.8510 (82 - 80)
4 - FLA - 0.8414 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.7292 (79 - 83)
6 - PIT - 0.6896 (78 - 84)
7 - LAD - 0.6674 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6361 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5233 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0.4863 (72 - 90)
11 - COL - 0.3465 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0.2884 (67 - 95)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

Cubs, BoSox Finish Season With 98 Wins

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - BOS : 98 - 64
2 - CHC : 98 - 64
3 - CHW : 93 - 69
4 - TAM : 91 - 71
5 - PHI : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - LAA : 86 - 76
8 - NYY : 86 - 76
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - ATL : 84 - 78
11 - FLA : 83 - 79
12 - ARI : 83 - 79
13 - MIL : 82 - 80
14 - NYM : 81 - 81
15 - TOR : 81 - 81
16 - DET : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 80 - 82
18 - CLE : 80 - 82
19 - TEX : 80 - 82
20 - MIN : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 79 - 83
22 - PIT : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 75 - 87
24 - CIN : 74 - 88
25 - KAN : 72 - 90
26 - SFO : 71 - 91
27 - COL : 69 - 93
28 - SDG : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 62 - 100
30 - SEA : 58 - 104

New Final Record Prediction Method

Baseball Playoffs Now is all about good power ratings, and how those ratings can predict future performance. We've been using the Pythagorean method to predict future records (runs scored / (runs scored + runs allowed)) and it's been working well. But as a Phillies blog pointed out, a team's win pace has "absolutely nothing" to do with RS/RA. The win pace is simply the team's current winning percentage. Using runs scored and runs allowed is a good way to differentiate teams with similar records, and historically, real-world team records approach their Pythagorean records.

But using pure run differentials is no longer our method, since it ignores a full half of the power ratings. Our ratings are equal parts of wins/losses against infinite strength of schedule and runs scored/allowed against infinite strength of schedule. Therefore, our Final Record Predictions will reflect both of them.

The records below began as Pythagorean records, and you can see the pure Pyth predictions at today's earlier post. After seeing where run differentials place a team, however, we add or subtract games based on a team's simple propensity to win or lose games (ignoring all runs). So Boston stays at 99 wins since it ranks first in baseball with its pure win/loss record against its schedule. But Philadelphia falls 6 games, from 99 wins to 93 wins, because of its 68% W/L rating compared to Boston.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - BOS : 99 - 63
3 - PHI : 93 - 69
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - STL : 88 - 74
8 - LAA : 87 - 75
9 - NYY : 84 - 78
10 - ARI : 83 - 79
11 - ATL : 83 - 79
12 - TOR : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 80 - 82
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - PIT : 79 - 83
21 - MIN : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - HOU : 76 - 86
25 - SFO : 72 - 90
26 - SDG : 71 - 91
27 - KAN : 69 - 93
28 - COL : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 65 - 97
30 - SEA : 60 - 102

Can Chicago Win 105 Games?

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 105 - 57
2 - PHI : 99 - 63
3 - BOS : 99 - 63
4 - CHW : 94 - 68
5 - OAK : 93 - 69
6 - STL : 90 - 72
7 - TAM : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 88 - 74
9 - NYY : 85 - 77
10 - ARI : 85 - 77
11 - ATL : 85 - 77
12 - FLA : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 83 - 79
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 80 - 82
17 - TEX : 79 - 83
18 - BAL : 79 - 83
19 - DET : 78 - 84
20 - PIT : 78 - 84
21 - MIN : 76 - 86
22 - LAD : 76 - 86
23 - HOU : 74 - 88
24 - CIN : 73 - 89
25 - SFO : 71 - 91
26 - SDG : 70 - 92
27 - COL : 66 - 96
28 - KAN : 66 - 96
29 - WAS : 64 - 98
30 - SEA : 60 - 102

Phillies Drop Back Below 100 Wins, White Sox Catching Up

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - PHI : 99 - 63
3 - CHW : 98 - 64
4 - BOS : 95 - 67
5 - STL : 92 - 70
6 - TAM : 90 - 72
7 - OAK : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 89 - 73
9 - ARI : 88 - 74
10 - TOR : 86 - 76
11 - ATL : 86 - 76
12 - FLA : 84 - 78
13 - LAD : 83 - 79
14 - NYY : 81 - 81
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - CLE : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 80 - 82
18 - HOU : 80 - 82
19 - TEX : 79 - 83
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 77 - 85
22 - CIN : 76 - 86
23 - MIN : 74 - 88
24 - SFO : 74 - 88
25 - DET : 73 - 89
26 - SDG : 66 - 96
27 - COL : 64 - 98
28 - KAN : 63 - 99
29 - WAS : 61 - 101
30 - SEA : 61 - 101

Phillies Move Into 100-Win Club

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - PHI : 100 - 62
3 - CHW : 98 - 64
4 - BOS : 97 - 65
5 - OAK : 91 - 71
6 - STL : 91 - 71
7 - TAM : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 89 - 73
9 - ARI : 88 - 74
10 - ATL : 88 - 74
11 - TOR : 86 - 76
12 - FLA : 85 - 77
13 - MIL : 82 - 80
14 - LAD : 81 - 81
15 - NYY : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 79 - 83
18 - TEX : 79 - 83
19 - HOU : 78 - 84
20 - CLE : 78 - 84
21 - PIT : 76 - 86
22 - CIN : 76 - 86
23 - MIN : 75 - 87
24 - SFO : 74 - 88
25 - DET : 73 - 89
26 - SDG : 67 - 95
27 - COL : 63 - 99
28 - KAN : 62 - 100
29 - WAS : 60 - 102
30 - SEA : 60 - 102

Baseball-Wide Power Rankings, Final Record Predictions

Overall Rank
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - OAK
6 - CHW
7 - PHI
8 - MIL
9 - ATL
10 - LAA
11 - STL
12 - PIT
13 - NYM
14 - CIN
15 - HOU
16 - FLA
17 - CLE
18 - MIN
19 - NYY
20 - ARI
21 - TEX
22 - BAL
23 - LAD
24 - DET
25 - WAS
26 - SFO
27 - KAN
28 - COL
29 - SDG
30 - SEA

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 105 - 57
2 - PHI : 97 - 65
3 - BOS : 95 - 67
4 - OAK : 92 - 70
5 - CHW : 92 - 70
6 - ATL : 91 - 71
7 - STL : 90 - 72
8 - TAM : 90 - 72
9 - LAA : 89 - 73
10 - TOR : 89 - 73
11 - ARI : 88 - 74
12 - FLA : 85 - 77
13 - MIL : 84 - 78
14 - NYM : 83 - 79
15 - MIN : 82 - 80
16 - CLE : 81 - 81
17 - LAD : 80 - 82
18 - HOU : 79 - 83
19 - NYY : 79 - 83
20 - TEX : 79 - 83
21 - CIN : 77 - 85
22 - BAL : 76 - 86
23 - PIT : 76 - 86
24 - DET : 72 - 90
25 - SFO : 69 - 93
26 - WAS : 64 - 98
27 - SDG : 63 - 99
28 - KAN : 63 - 99
29 - SEA : 60 - 102
30 - COL : 60 - 102

Phillies on Pace to Win 97 Games

MLB Final Record Predictions

1 - CHC - 105 - 57
2 - PHI - 97 - 65
3 - BOS - 95 - 67
4 - ARI - 93 - 69
5 - TAM - 93 - 69
6 - ATL - 91 - 71
7 - CHW - 90 - 72
8 - STL - 90 - 72
9 - OAK - 89 - 73
10 - TOR - 89 - 73
11 - LAA - 87 - 75
12 - FLA - 86 - 76
13 - NYM - 83 - 79
14 - MIN - 81 - 81
15 - LAD - 81 - 81
16 - CLE - 80 - 82
17 - NYY - 80 - 82
18 - TEX - 80 - 82
19 - HOU - 79 - 83
20 - MIL - 79 - 83
21 - CIN - 78 - 84
22 - DET - 75 - 87
23 - PIT - 75 - 87
24 - BAL - 75 - 87
25 - SFO - 68 - 94
26 - WAS - 65 - 97
27 - KAN - 64 - 98
28 - SDG - 63 - 99
29 - SEA - 61 - 101
30 - COL - 59 - 103

Chicago Cubs Win 103 Games in 2008

To predict the final record of all baseball teams, we use a modified Smyth/Patriot method to find the most probable number of wins in the remainder of the season based on previous runs scored - runs allowed ratios.

That is, the Milwaukee Brewers currently have a .471 win-loss record over 51 games (or 31.48% of the season). Their history-adjusted run ratio is 0.887 runs scored for every 1 run allowed (223.578 runs scored to 251.930 runs allowed), to which Smyth/Patriot returns an expected future win/loss record of .444.

51 prior games of .471 baseball plus 111 future games of .444 baseball equals a final record of .452, or 73 wins out of 162 ball games.

This is one of the few not completely homegrown statistics on Baseball Playoffs Now, and this site is indebted to Bill James and the later Smyth/Patriot adjustments for their work.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC - 103 - 59
2 - ARI - 98 - 64
3 - OAK - 95 - 67
4 - ATL - 95 - 67
5 - TAM - 94 - 68
6 - PHI - 94 - 68
7 - CHW - 94 - 68
8 - BOS - 93 - 69
9 - STL - 91 - 71
10 - FLA - 90 - 72
11 - LAA - 88 - 74
12 - TOR - 86 - 76
13 - LAD - 85 - 77
14 - HOU - 85 - 77
15 - CLE - 81 - 81
16 - NYY - 79 - 83
17 - NYM - 79 - 83
18 - BAL - 79 - 83
19 - TEX - 78 - 84
20 - MIN - 77 - 85
21 - PIT - 75 - 87
22 - DET - 73 - 89
23 - MIL - 73 - 89
24 - CIN - 72 - 90
25 - WAS - 67 - 95
26 - SFO - 63 - 99
27 - KAN - 63 - 99
28 - COL - 63 - 99
29 - SEA - 59 - 103
30 - SDG - 58 - 104