Playoff Pace: July 30, 2008

This post is a measure of who's projected to win all divisions plus the wild cards, and how far behind the rest of the teams are. For instance, Tampa Bay is in the AL East lead with 91 wins, but Boston is just a couple percentage points behind and also gains 91 wins. Any team over .500 in this measurement has a shot at the division title or wild card, but as the season draws nearer to the end, start focusing on teams in the .800s or .900s.

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (97 - 65)
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (89 - 73)
4 - BOS - 0.9743 (91 - 71)
5 - MIN - 0.8728 (88 - 74)
6 - NYY - 0.6567 (87 - 75)
7 - DET - 0.5363 (83 - 79)
8 - OAK - 0.4896 (82 - 80)
9 - TEX - 0.4604 (81 - 81)
10 - TOR - 0.2915 (83 - 79)
11 - CLE - 0.0549 (77 - 85)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (79 - 83)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (68 - 94)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - MIN - 0.8758 (88 - 74)
3 - NYY - 0.8402 (87 - 75)
4 - DET - 0.6842 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6565 (83 - 79)
6 - OAK - 0.6222 (82 - 80)
7 - TEX - 0.5850 (81 - 81)
8 - BAL - 0.5099 (79 - 83)
9 - CLE - 0.4102 (77 - 85)
10 - KAN - 0.3790 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (68 - 94)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - NYM - 1.0000 (85 - 77)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (82 - 80)
4 - PHI - 0.9925 (85 - 77)
5 - LAD - 0.9731 (81 - 81)
6 - FLA - 0.8441 (81 - 81)
7 - ATL - 0.7288 (78 - 84)
8 - MIL - 0.6630 (86 - 76)
9 - COL - 0.6449 (76 - 86)
10 - STL - 0.5664 (85 - 77)
11 - SFO - 0.2926 (70 - 92)
12 - HOU - 0.0863 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0.0528 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - MIL - 1.0000 (86 - 76)
2 - PHI - 0.9548 (85 - 77)
3 - STL - 0.9438 (85 - 77)
4 - LAD - 0.8184 (81 - 81)
5 - FLA - 0.8120 (81 - 81)
6 - ATL - 0.7011 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0.6643 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0.6448 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0.6140 (76 - 86)
10 - COL - 0.6122 (76 - 86)
11 - SFO - 0.3908 (70 - 92)
12 - SDG - 0.2070 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

Tampa Closest To Wild Card By Far, Might Take AL East Anyway

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 96 - 66
3 - TAM : 95 - 67
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - LAA : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - NYY : 85 - 77
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - MIN : 85 - 77
11 - MIL : 84 - 78
12 - ATL : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 82 - 80
14 - BAL : 82 - 80
15 - DET : 81 - 81
16 - TEX : 81 - 81
17 - ARI : 80 - 82
18 - FLA : 80 - 82
19 - NYM : 80 - 82
20 - CLE : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 77 - 85
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 73 - 89
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 65 - 97
29 - SEA : 64 - 98
30 - WAS : 60 - 102

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AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
1 - LAA - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0,9565 (89 - 73)
5 - TAM - 0,9366 (95 - 67)
6 - TEX - 0,6317 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0,5740 (85 - 77)
8 - DET - 0,3037 (81 - 81)
9 - NYY - 0,2619 (85 - 77)
10 - CLE - 0,2258 (80 - 82)
11 - TOR - 0,0077 (82 - 80)
12 - BAL - 0,0000 (82 - 80)
12 - KAN - 0,0000 (77 - 85)
12 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1,0000 (95 - 67)
2 - OAK - 0,8154 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0,6890 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0,6636 (85 - 77)
5 - TOR - 0,5719 (82 - 80)
6 - BAL - 0,5683 (82 - 80)
7 - DET - 0,5434 (81 - 81)
8 - TEX - 0,5385 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0,5088 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0,4083 (77 - 85)
11 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - PHI - 1,0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1,0000 (80 - 82)
4 - ATL - 0,8525 (83 - 79)
5 - LAD - 0,8275 (78 - 84)
6 - FLA - 0,7531 (80 - 82)
7 - NYM - 0,7455 (80 - 82)
8 - STL - 0,5239 (85 - 77)
9 - SFO - 0,4964 (73 - 89)
10 - MIL - 0,4563 (84 - 78)
11 - COL - 0,1780 (68 - 94)
12 - HOU - 0,1607 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0,1558 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0,0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0,0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1,0000 (85 - 77)
2 - MIL - 0,9372 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0,9103 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0,8041 (80 - 82)
5 - NYM - 0,7960 (80 - 82)
6 - LAD - 0,7000 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0,6623 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0,6577 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0,5129 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0,4909 (73 - 89)
11 - COL - 0,2898 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0,1774 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

Final Record Predictions and Playoff Pace: June 25, 2008

The American League is pretty linear - that is, the teams' propensity to enter the postseason roughly corresponds to their record - but the National League is not even close. The Dodgers are projected to win 77 games but are #6 in propensity to win a divisional championship because they play in the West, whereas St. Louis will win 87 games but is only #8 on the divisional championship list because of their difficult Central division. The Cardinals, however, can gloat about their top position in the wild card race, where the Dodgers are only #7.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 98 - 64
2 - BOS : 95 - 67
3 - TAM : 92 - 70
4 - LAA : 92 - 70
5 - CHW : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 90 - 72
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - STL : 87 - 75
9 - MIL : 84 - 78
10 - NYY : 84 - 78
11 - MIN : 83 - 79
12 - ATL : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - TOR : 81 - 81
15 - ARI : 81 - 81
16 - BAL : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 81 - 81
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - CLE : 80 - 82
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 76 - 86
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 72 - 90
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 67 - 95
29 - SEA : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (95 - 67)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
4 - OAK - 0.9285 (90 - 72)
5 - TAM - 0.7595 (92 - 70)
6 - TEX - 0.5941 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0.4652 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.2712 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.2447 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.2084 (84 - 78)
11 - TOR - 0.0226 (81 - 81)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (81 - 81)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
2 - OAK - 0.9251 (90 - 72)
3 - NYY - 0.7093 (84 - 78)
4 - MIN - 0.6766 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6112 (81 - 81)
6 - BAL - 0.5993 (81 - 81)
7 - TEX - 0.5920 (81 - 81)
8 - DET - 0.5656 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.5504 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4104 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8416 (82 - 80)
5 - FLA - 0.8321 (82 - 80)
6 - LAD - 0.7322 (77 - 85)
7 - NYM - 0.7211 (79 - 83)
8 - STL - 0.5365 (87 - 75)
9 - MIL - 0.4461 (84 - 78)
10 - SFO - 0.3823 (72 - 90)
11 - PIT - 0.1872 (78 - 84)
12 - HOU - 0.1270 (76 - 86)
13 - COL - 0.1123 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (67 - 95)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
2 - MIL - 0.9197 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0.8510 (82 - 80)
4 - FLA - 0.8414 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.7292 (79 - 83)
6 - PIT - 0.6896 (78 - 84)
7 - LAD - 0.6674 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6361 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5233 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0.4863 (72 - 90)
11 - COL - 0.3465 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0.2884 (67 - 95)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

Playoff Pace: June 23, 2008

Oakland in 2nd place both in division and wild card race ... St. Louis has to pray it gets the wild card since it's far behind in the Central ... Milwaukee 9th in division championship race but 3rd in wild card race (it's possible!) ... Yankees 10th in division championship race but 3rd in wild card race as well ...

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0.9728 (89 - 73)
5 - TEX - 0.7131 (81 - 81)
6 - TAM - 0.6861 (91 - 71)
7 - MIN - 0.5220 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.4091 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0.3803 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.3211 (85 - 77)
11 - BAL - 0.0255 (80 - 82)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (74 - 88)
12 - TOR - 0.0000 (80 - 82)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - OAK - 0.9358 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0.8134 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0.7282 (83 - 79)
5 - TEX - 0.6859 (81 - 81)
6 - DET - 0.6694 (81 - 81)
7 - BAL - 0.6622 (80 - 82)
8 - CLE - 0.6543 (80 - 82)
9 - TOR - 0.6492 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4562 (74 - 88)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (88 - 74)
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (101 - 61)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8392 (83 - 79)
5 - FLA - 0.8062 (83 - 79)
6 - LAD - 0.7979 (78 - 84)
7 - NYM - 0.7604 (81 - 81)
8 - STL - 0.4203 (86 - 76)
9 - MIL - 0.3162 (83 - 79)
10 - SFO - 0.2616 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.2030 (70 - 92)
12 - PIT - 0.0702 (77 - 85)
13 - HOU - 0.0257 (76 - 86)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (75 - 87)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (60 - 102)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (86 - 76)
2 - ATL - 0.9046 (83 - 79)
3 - MIL - 0.8962 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0.8690 (83 - 79)
5 - NYM - 0.8196 (81 - 81)
6 - LAD - 0.7108 (78 - 84)
7 - PIT - 0.6513 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6070 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5814 (75 - 87)
10 - SFO - 0.4267 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.3957 (70 - 92)
12 - SDG - 0.2881 (68 - 94)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (60 - 102)

New Playoff Pace Rankings -- Current Odds For October

To determine division championship pace, we project the final records of every team in baseball, then figure out who's in front and how far behind every other team is. The same is true for the wild card predictions, just with the projected division leaders removed.

These numbers do not mean that Boston, Chicago WS, and Oakland have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Rather, the 1.0000 ratings mean that they hold the strongest projected records (and therefore best predicted chance) and everyone else is measured relative to them.

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (93 - 69)
1 - OAK - 1.0000 (89 - 73)
4 - LAA - 0.9029 (86 - 76)
5 - TEX - 0.6967 (80 - 82)
6 - TAM - 0.5921 (91 - 71)
7 - DET - 0.4128 (80 - 82)
8 - CLE - 0.3897 (80 - 82)
9 - MIN - 0.3766 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.3163 (86 - 76)
11 - TOR - 0.0275 (81 - 81)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (58 - 104)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (72 - 90)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (80 - 82)


AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - LAA - 0.8522 (86 - 76)
3 - NYY - 0.8473 (86 - 76)
4 - TOR - 0.6873 (81 - 81)
5 - DET - 0.6760 (80 - 82)
6 - BAL - 0.6721 (80 - 82)
7 - CLE - 0.6609 (80 - 82)
8 - TEX - 0.6576 (80 - 82)
9 - MIN - 0.6523 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4056 (72 - 90)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (58 - 104)


NL Division Championship Pace
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (83 - 79)
4 - ATL - 0.7696 (84 - 78)
5 - FLA - 0.7400 (83 - 79)
6 - LAD - 0.7047 (79 - 83)
7 - NYM - 0.6523 (81 - 81)
8 - STL - 0.4673 (85 - 77)
9 - MIL - 0.3341 (82 - 80)
10 - SFO - 0.1759 (71 - 91)
11 - PIT - 0.1084 (77 - 85)
12 - COL - 0.0754 (69 - 93)
13 - HOU - 0.0297 (75 - 87)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (74 - 88)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (62 - 100)


NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (85 - 77)
2 - ATL - 0.9516 (84 - 78)
3 - FLA - 0.9149 (83 - 79)
4 - MIL - 0.8596 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.8066 (81 - 81)
6 - LAD - 0.7102 (79 - 83)
7 - PIT - 0.6218 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.5388 (75 - 87)
9 - CIN - 0.5075 (74 - 88)
10 - SFO - 0.3631 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.2971 (69 - 93)
12 - SDG - 0.2476 (68 - 94)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (62 - 100)