Angels Take Home WS Win

Milwaukee drops a game from the National League Championship Series because of their losses in Chicago this week.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed BOS in 5 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Cubs Now Take Angels To 6 Games In World Series, Can't Close Out LA

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 7 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Los Angeles Angels Win World Series Over Tired Cubs

Movements of note since the last playoff prediction a few weeks ago:

1. Boston falls to AL seed no. 2 with 93 wins. The Angels climb two spots and take the top seed with 96 wins.
2. The White Sox win 92 games yet fall to seed no. 3, but Tampa retains the wild card with 91 wins.
3. The Phillies fall completely out of the playoffs and cede the second NL seed to the New York Mets, who win 86 games this year.
4. Milwaukee's 88 wins kick out St. Louis (at 84 wins) for the National League wild card -- and the Brewers make it a close I-94 NL Championship series as well.
   

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 7 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 5 games. ***

Tampa Bay Rays Are World Champions!

Boston and Chicago are knocked off their high perches as wild card Tampa Bay storms in for 7-game victories against the Red Sox, then against the Cubs in the World Series. The Rays are only a half-game back in the toughest division, and have played the toughest schedule in baseball. Tampa certainly earned their championship.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Phillies Win Divisional Series Over Cards, But Wild Card Rays Take LA For A Ride

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Wild Cards Boot Out Angels and Phillies

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Chicago Cubs Regain World Series Championship Over Would-Be Repeat Red Sox

Also of note, the Angels climb into the no. 2 seed and play in the American League Championship Series.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 2 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed LAA in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games. ***

Angels Take Red Sox For 5-Game Ride In Divisional Series; Fall Short

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

The Angels finally make it into the Divisional Series, beating out Oakland by a game for the West title. Yes, we know that Los Angeles's record has shown their strength for quite a while now, but the Athletics only this past weekend fell below the level of the Angels. Even though the A's series win against Florida was impressive, the Angels were even more so as they swept Philly in Pennsylvania.

By pure run differential, Oakland is by far superior at 1.226 runs scored per 1 run allowed to Los Angeles at 1.043 runs scored. The basic Pythagorean final record prediction places the A's at 93 wins (current record of .547 plus .592 over the remaining games) and the Angels at 91 wins (.605 now plus .519 the rest of the way), giving Oakland the AL West championship. However - and this is a big however - Oakland's play against strength of schedule and just plain win-loss record does not bear out the prediction that they can win 93 games in 2008. Baseball Playoffs Now employs a "gravitate towards the mean" filter to punish teams who have excellent run differentials but mediocre win-loss records, and to reward teams who have poor differentials but mediocre records.

Adding each team's propensity to actually win games - and not just score runs - Oakland loses 4 wins and Los Angeles loses 1 win, placing the A's at 89 wins and the Angels at 90. Hence, Los Angeles wins the division and the right to lose to Boston in the first round of the playoffs.

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Daily Playoff Prediction: June 20, 2008 -- Boston Wins Another One

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Major League Baseball 2008 Final Four: Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Boston Jealous of Gainesville, Takes 2008 WS

If the University of Florida can get a basketball-football-basketball trifecta, then why shouldn't Boston do the same in baseball-basketball-baseball?

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Chicago Cubs Take Back World Series Win From Boston

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games. ***

Boston Red Sox Repeat As World Champions; Cubs Fans Burn City and Massacre Goats

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

White Sox Lose AL Championship to Boston; Cubs Still Win It All

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Cubs Win World Series in 7; Playoff Prediction Methods Explained

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

I'd like to shed some light on how Baseball Playoffs Now predicts the postseason. Our final record predictions generate division placements and the wild card team, based on a history-weighted pythagorean method. Once we know the playoff teams, we turn to a completely different statistic to figure out who are the better teams.

Our Power Rankings are compiled using both pure wins/losses and runs scored/allowed in two separate algorithms, both rated against an infinite strength of schedule matrix. But run differential is the best single predictor of upcoming performance, so Baseball Playoffs Now weights that factor much more heavily when creating a special stat called Playoff Ratings. The only use for this statistic is picking winners in our playoff predictions; we don't publish it as Power Rankings because it is skewed too far away from wins and losses.

Using Eric Seidman's Home Field Advantage article to determine HFA, we give a (small) home field advantage to the proper teams' ratings. The winner of the series is therefore simply the team with the higher rating.

Mathematics, backed up by Seidman's data, also returns the probabilities that a series will extend to 3, 4, or 5 games (in the case of the Divisional Series) or 4, 5, 6, or 7 games (in the case of the League Championship and World Series):

The math: (coin flip for winner [or use historical data, but there is only a very small difference] ^ number of games in series) x number of possible outcomes in which the series lasts that long

Divisional Series:
3 games = 0.5^3 x 2 = 25%
4 games = 0.5^4 x 4 = 25%
5 games = 0.5^5 x 16 = 50%

League/World Series:
4 games = 0.5^4 x 2 = 12.5%
5 games = 0.5^5 x 8 = 25%
6 games = 0.5^6 x 20 = 31.25%
7 games = 0.5^7 x 40 = 31.25%

Using these numbers, we use some fuzzy math to generate the least-scientific prediction of this entire site: series lengths. We figure out the greatest difference in Playoff Rating between teams in the playoffs, then figure out about where the two teams in each series lie in that range. Plugging that percentage into the probabilities above, we can approximate series lengths.

And voilà!

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 7 games. ***

Chicago Teams Continue World Series Domination

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

All-Chicago World Series Taken To 6 Games

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

Cards Take NL Wild Card; Chicago over Boston in AL Championship Series

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

Los Angeles Angels Kick Tampa Out Of Wild Card - Then Fall In 3 Games To BoSox

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed LAA in 3 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Red Sox Creeping Up on Cubs -- Enough to Win World Series?

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed OAK in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***