Symptom: Uneven Play; Disease: Unbalanced Club

Our illuminating new Balance Ranking measures how much teams rely on certain parts of the season. If homestands or away series are the primary cause of a team's record, they fall in this ranking. In the same manner, if divisional play or out-of-division play figures too highly in what makes a squad tick, then we penalize them. The highest-rated teams are those who have perfect balance between home and away records, and in-division and out-of-division records.

The Balance Rankings are no measure of success, as the Kansas City Royals (#1 in the list) can tell you. Yet playing the #2 White Sox or #3 Athletics will become much more scary, knowing that they can win anytime, anywhere. On the other hand, a non AL-Central team playing Minnesota in the Twin Cities can take heart.

Below we detail the symptoms of each team's "unbalance disease." And kudos to the Royals, who apparently figured out a way to lose to everyone everywhere, making them the most balanced team today.

Balance Rankings
1 - KAN
2 - CHW
3 - OAK
4 - SEA
5 - HOU
6 - SDG
7 - CLE - too dependent on homestands
8 - TOR
9 - LAD - too dependent on own division
10 - ARI - too dependent on own division
11 - COL
12 - PIT - not good enough at home
13 - BAL - not good enough in own division
14 - PHI - too dependent on homestands
15 - NYY - not good enough in own division
16 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
17 - NYM - not good enough in own division
18 - TEX - too dependent on own division
19 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
20 - CIN - too dependent on homestands
21 - LAA - not good enough at home
22 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
23 - DET - not good enough in own division
24 - FLA - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
25 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
28 - WAS - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
29 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
30 - MIN - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division

Never Mind, AL West - You Win

Further to the news of yesterday, in which the AL West choked away its lead over the AL Central:

I wrote, "In other words, the AL Central is better because it has the power to match the West's best teams - yet its weakest link is not nearly as poor as the West's worst."

That statement is no longer true. There is still a suspicious difference between the West's best and worst teams, enough to create a 10% difference between the divisions in that part of Baseball Playoffs Now's division rankings. But the Central lost that last hope last night as Cleveland lost to Texas, Detroit lost to Oakland, and Minnesota lost to Baltimore. Of the AL Central teams, only the White Sox won yesterday, and that was over fellow division member Kansas City.

As of now, the AL Central isn't skating by on the measure of divisional cohesion. Even though Seattle lost again and there continues to be a growing divide between the Western teams, that statistic - meant to be a sort of tiebreaker between divisions - has been overpowered by interdivisional play.

Blue Jays Fly Higher Than Angels

I just came across an interesting series by Sport Crack called Powerless Rankings, and I wanted to publicize my response to his latest rankings:

SportCrack
Worst: Rockies, then Royals, Mariners, Padres, and Tigers
Best: Cubs, then Rays, Angels, Phillies, Red Sox

Baseball Playoffs Now response
"The Powerless Rankings look good, though Detroit deserves a tiny bit more credit for playing the 12th-hardest schedule in the majors and playing better than half of baseball over the past ten games. I'd stick San Francisco there instead, but it's really a tossup.

I'm also impressed by the Cubs - Rays - Phillies - Red Sox picks, but I thoroughly disagree with your Angels #3 ranking. I'd place them around tenth in the league; their wins in very close games against sub-par opponents (22nd-hardest schedule) don't speak very well to their long-term viability. The Angels will win about 88 games - and lose the division to the A's by 2 games with no chance at the wild card.

Instead, give it up for the Toronto Blue Jays. They have consistently high numbers: 8th in quality wins, 9th-hardest schedule, best in baseball over the last 10 games, 4th overall in computer models against infinite-depth-of-schedule (that is, taking into account their opponents' opponents' opponents ad infinitum).

Baseball Playoffs Now Power Rankings
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - PHI

Runners-up: White Sox, A's, Braves, Brewers, Angels"

Cubs Continue Stranglehold on World Series Prediction

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 4, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.2%
2 - NL - 47.8%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - PHI
6 - CHW
7 - OAK
8 - ATL
9 - MIL
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 91.3%
3 - NL-E - 74.7%
4 - AL-W - 37.4%
5 - AL-C - 33.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - TEX
8 - MIN
9 - NYY
10 - BAL
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - MIL
5 - STL
6 - HOU
7 - PIT
8 - NYM
9 - ARI
10 - CIN
11 - FLA
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

NL Central Rebounds; AL West Chokes

We're back to status quo. The NL Central had faltered for a few days, falling behind the NL East to 3rd place among the divisions, and the AL West had moved from 5th place to 4th over the slumping AL Central.

Neither move lasted more than a week. Today's division rankings are back to their expected levels.

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100,0%
2 - NL-C - 85,7%
3 - NL-E - 77,1%
4 - AL-C - 35,1%
5 - AL-W - 32,0%
6 - NL-W - 0,0%

Measuring quality wins over the past 10 games, the teams in the NL Central have ranked an average of 7th place in the majors while the NL East teams ranked an average of 16th place.

The American League is a bit more complicated. The AL West has scored slightly better than the Central over the past 10 games (an average of 18th place on average versus 18.6th place on average for the AL Central), yet the West has fallen in our rankings. The reason is that when averaging the Baseball Playoffs Now rankings of each team in a division to produce the division's average rating, we use multiple types of averages.

Normal averages do not reflect the general tendency of a certain group of numbers. An arithmetic mean (normal average) can be skewed by either an unusually high or low number in the group, or it could fail to recognize the difference between a group of numbers that are very close in value and a group of numbers very disparate in value.

The latter problem applies to the AL Central - AL West division rankings. The Central's average ranking is 46.89% and the West's average ranking is 47.12%, so on the surface, the West is doing a bit better.

But using a function called the geometric mean, we see vast differences in the two divisions. The Central's geometric mean is 42.17% and the West's geometric mean is 32.82%, because the West's teams are far more spread out in their strengths than the Central's:

AL Central
CHW - 0.7714
CLE - 0.4897
DET - 0.3838
KAN - 0.1754
MIN - 0.5242

AL West
LAA - 0.6142
OAK - 0.7369
SEA - 0.0534
TEX - 0.4806

You will notice that the Central is grouped pretty securely around both 47% and 42%, their arithmetic and geometric means, respectively. But the West has huge differences between the top team(s) and the bottom team, which means that this division on the whole is somewhat weaker than the Central. In other words, the AL Central is better because it has the power to match the West's best teams - yet its weakest link is not nearly as poor as the West's worst.

Daily Playoff Prediction: June 3, 2008

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 3, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.2%
2 - NL - 47.8%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - PHI
5 - TOR
6 - CHW
7 - OAK
8 - ATL
9 - MIL
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 85.7%
3 - NL-E - 77.1%
4 - AL-C - 35.1%
5 - AL-W - 32.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - NYY
8 - MIN
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - MIL
5 - PIT
6 - ARI
7 - NYM
8 - STL
9 - CIN
10 - HOU
11 - FLA
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - COL

The Underrated Pittsburgh Pirates

One look at the Pirates' last-place standing in the NL Central, trailing the Cubs by 9.5 games, and their four-games-under-.500 record, it's easy to dismiss this team. FOX notes that the Pirates are getting "nowhere near the seasons they expected from Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny" and various media rankings place Pittsburgh in the middle third of ballclubs at the very best:

AOL: 21st overall
CBS: 19th
ESPN: 23rd
FOX: 23rd

It's true that the Pirates have a quality win percentage that's about 20th in Major League Baseball. But the national sportswriters failed to notice that Pittsburgh has played the hardest schedule in baseball to date: membership in the NL Central means taking on teams currently ranked #1, #10, #14, #15, and #16 overall. Over the past half-month, the Pirates have won series against the Cubs (#1 in baseball) , St. Louis (#14), and Atlanta (#8) while barely losing a rubber match against the Cubs again on May 18th.

Baseball Playoffs Now recommends the Pirates...cautiously. They rate fairly high on our Watch List, as their playoff rating (wins against schedule) is high and Pittsburgh has been the 11th-best ballclub over the past 10 games. But the Pirates' scoring capacity is suspect: for every 1 run allowed to score, Pittsburgh only scores 0.921 runs themselves (23rd in the majors). Because of their current inability to match opponents run for run, we place the Pirates' final record at 23rd-best (75 wins).

Baseball Playoffs Now's prediction algorithms places Pittsburgh's ranking alongside that of major networks: around 22nd in baseball. Yet when we create power rankings, it's important to note the path that teams took to get to today. The Pirates have nothing to be ashamed of, and we pencil them in at 13th overall.

Phillies on Pace to Win 97 Games

MLB Final Record Predictions

1 - CHC - 105 - 57
2 - PHI - 97 - 65
3 - BOS - 95 - 67
4 - ARI - 93 - 69
5 - TAM - 93 - 69
6 - ATL - 91 - 71
7 - CHW - 90 - 72
8 - STL - 90 - 72
9 - OAK - 89 - 73
10 - TOR - 89 - 73
11 - LAA - 87 - 75
12 - FLA - 86 - 76
13 - NYM - 83 - 79
14 - MIN - 81 - 81
15 - LAD - 81 - 81
16 - CLE - 80 - 82
17 - NYY - 80 - 82
18 - TEX - 80 - 82
19 - HOU - 79 - 83
20 - MIL - 79 - 83
21 - CIN - 78 - 84
22 - DET - 75 - 87
23 - PIT - 75 - 87
24 - BAL - 75 - 87
25 - SFO - 68 - 94
26 - WAS - 65 - 97
27 - KAN - 64 - 98
28 - SDG - 63 - 99
29 - SEA - 61 - 101
30 - COL - 59 - 103

Boston Fails to Extend Cubs World Series Curse

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Baseball Ratings Now: June 2, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.4%
2 - NL - 47.6%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - PHI
6 - CHW
7 - OAK
8 - ATL
9 - NYM
10 - MIL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 83.6%
3 - NL-E - 79.7%
4 - AL-W - 37.4%
5 - AL-C - 34.3%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - NYY
8 - TEX
9 - MIN
10 - CLE
11 - BAL
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - NYM
5 - MIL
6 - ARI
7 - PIT
8 - STL
9 - HOU
10 - CIN
11 - FLA
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - COL