Daily Playoff Prediction: June 3, 2008

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 3, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.2%
2 - NL - 47.8%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - PHI
5 - TOR
6 - CHW
7 - OAK
8 - ATL
9 - MIL
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 85.7%
3 - NL-E - 77.1%
4 - AL-C - 35.1%
5 - AL-W - 32.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - NYY
8 - MIN
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - MIL
5 - PIT
6 - ARI
7 - NYM
8 - STL
9 - CIN
10 - HOU
11 - FLA
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - COL

The Underrated Pittsburgh Pirates

One look at the Pirates' last-place standing in the NL Central, trailing the Cubs by 9.5 games, and their four-games-under-.500 record, it's easy to dismiss this team. FOX notes that the Pirates are getting "nowhere near the seasons they expected from Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny" and various media rankings place Pittsburgh in the middle third of ballclubs at the very best:

AOL: 21st overall
CBS: 19th
ESPN: 23rd
FOX: 23rd

It's true that the Pirates have a quality win percentage that's about 20th in Major League Baseball. But the national sportswriters failed to notice that Pittsburgh has played the hardest schedule in baseball to date: membership in the NL Central means taking on teams currently ranked #1, #10, #14, #15, and #16 overall. Over the past half-month, the Pirates have won series against the Cubs (#1 in baseball) , St. Louis (#14), and Atlanta (#8) while barely losing a rubber match against the Cubs again on May 18th.

Baseball Playoffs Now recommends the Pirates...cautiously. They rate fairly high on our Watch List, as their playoff rating (wins against schedule) is high and Pittsburgh has been the 11th-best ballclub over the past 10 games. But the Pirates' scoring capacity is suspect: for every 1 run allowed to score, Pittsburgh only scores 0.921 runs themselves (23rd in the majors). Because of their current inability to match opponents run for run, we place the Pirates' final record at 23rd-best (75 wins).

Baseball Playoffs Now's prediction algorithms places Pittsburgh's ranking alongside that of major networks: around 22nd in baseball. Yet when we create power rankings, it's important to note the path that teams took to get to today. The Pirates have nothing to be ashamed of, and we pencil them in at 13th overall.

Phillies on Pace to Win 97 Games

MLB Final Record Predictions

1 - CHC - 105 - 57
2 - PHI - 97 - 65
3 - BOS - 95 - 67
4 - ARI - 93 - 69
5 - TAM - 93 - 69
6 - ATL - 91 - 71
7 - CHW - 90 - 72
8 - STL - 90 - 72
9 - OAK - 89 - 73
10 - TOR - 89 - 73
11 - LAA - 87 - 75
12 - FLA - 86 - 76
13 - NYM - 83 - 79
14 - MIN - 81 - 81
15 - LAD - 81 - 81
16 - CLE - 80 - 82
17 - NYY - 80 - 82
18 - TEX - 80 - 82
19 - HOU - 79 - 83
20 - MIL - 79 - 83
21 - CIN - 78 - 84
22 - DET - 75 - 87
23 - PIT - 75 - 87
24 - BAL - 75 - 87
25 - SFO - 68 - 94
26 - WAS - 65 - 97
27 - KAN - 64 - 98
28 - SDG - 63 - 99
29 - SEA - 61 - 101
30 - COL - 59 - 103

Boston Fails to Extend Cubs World Series Curse

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Baseball Ratings Now: June 2, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.4%
2 - NL - 47.6%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - PHI
6 - CHW
7 - OAK
8 - ATL
9 - NYM
10 - MIL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 83.6%
3 - NL-E - 79.7%
4 - AL-W - 37.4%
5 - AL-C - 34.3%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - NYY
8 - TEX
9 - MIN
10 - CLE
11 - BAL
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - NYM
5 - MIL
6 - ARI
7 - PIT
8 - STL
9 - HOU
10 - CIN
11 - FLA
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - COL

NL Central Tumbles to Third-Best Division

The once-mighty NL Central - home to the mauling Cubs, resurgent Cards, surprising Astros, and on-again off-again Brewers, Reds, and Pirates - reached another nosedive milestone last night as the NL East overtook them for 2nd-best division in baseball.

Though the NL Central still outpaces the East in terms of wins and losses (.526 to .519, respectively), the NL East wins in every other category:

Average runs scored per 1 allowed:
NL Central: 1.040 runs scored
NL East: 1.087 runs scored

Projected average record by season's end:
NL Central: 83-79 (.515)
NL East: 86-76 (.528)

Average overall rating (v. strength of schedule):
NL Central: 12.83th place out of 30 teams (57.23th percentile)
NL East: 12.6th place out of 30 teams (58th percentile)

Overall rating by team:
Cubs (#1 overall)
Astros (#9)
Cardinals (#11)
Pirates (#16)
Brewers (#17)
Reds (#23)

Phillies (#5)
Braves (#7)
Mets (#12)
Marlins (#14)
Nationals (#25)

The pure averages of the Central and East's ratings are for comparison only; we use a more complex formula to determine which division is stronger (i.e. rating averages weighted towards the division's middle team(s) as well as results of games played outside the division).

Braves Bandwagon Part I

Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings on ESPN:

"Which team this year is most likely to come from even a couple of games back in the pack and show up in October? ... [O]ur pick would be the Braves. They have a better run differential (plus-48) than six of the eight teams that would make the playoffs if the postseason started today. They rank first or second in the league in batting average, ERA and rotation ERA. And the biggest reason for their .500-ish record (28-25) is their 2-14 record in one-run games.

"I'm going to predict this right now," said one NL scout. "I think Atlanta wins that division."

Jayson and unnamed NL scout, welcome to Baseball Playoffs Now, where Atlanta has been winning the NL East since April 22, when by record they were fourth in the division - but by our ratings easily on top.

White Sox over Boston in AL Championship Series; Lose to Cubs in World Series

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 5 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 30, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.5%
2 - NL - 47.5%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - PHI
6 - TOR
7 - ATL
8 - OAK
9 - HOU
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-E - 87.3%
3 - NL-C - 86.0%
4 - AL-W - 42.6%
5 - AL-C - 38.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - TOR
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - MIN
8 - TEX
9 - NYY
10 - BAL
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - HOU
5 - STL
6 - NYM
7 - ARI
8 - FLA
9 - PIT
10 - MIL
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

Phillies in NL Championship Series, Swept by Cubbies

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed TAM in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 29, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.0%
2 - NL - 47.0%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - CHW
6 - PHI
7 - TOR
8 - ATL
9 - HOU
10 - ARI

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 89.1%
3 - NL-E - 82.8%
4 - AL-W - 49.1%
5 - AL-C - 39.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CHW
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - TEX
9 - NYY
10 - MIN
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - HOU
5 - ARI
6 - STL
7 - NYM
8 - MIL
9 - FLA
10 - CIN
11 - LAD
12 - PIT
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG