Baseball Rankings Now: July 28, 2008 -- Angels Best in Baseball

AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - NYY
6 - MIN
7 - DET
8 - TOR
9 - OAK
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - ARI
7 - LAD
8 - FLA
9 - ATL
10 - COL
11 - CIN
12 - HOU
13 - PIT
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Overall Power Rankings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - NYY
6 - MIN
7 - CHC
8 - MIL
9 - DET
10 - TOR
11 - OAK
12 - NYM
13 - TEX
14 - PHI
15 - STL
16 - BAL
17 - ARI
18 - LAD
19 - FLA
20 - CLE
21 - ATL
22 - KAN
23 - COL
24 - CIN
25 - HOU
26 - PIT
27 - SEA
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

Back on Track

Baseball Playoffs Now returns from the Tuscan sun with a long-awaited database and stats update.  I caught up on baseball news upon returning home...

Poor National League - an All-Star loss plus sinking further in the interleague battle.  No wonder my computer is virtually laughing at any NL team in the rankings.

Here's how I did on the July predictions (using rankings as of July 23, the date of my return, even though this post is only being written five days afterward):

1. "Toronto overtakes Baltimore, but can't get any higher than 4th in the AL East." -- Perfect.  The Jays are 1.5 games up on the Orioles, but stuck in 4th place 6 games behind the Yankees.
   
2. "Kansas City, tied for last in the Central, earns it by losing at a faster rate than Cleveland." -- Almost, but not quite.  Kansas City remains tied for last, but ranked 0.001 above the Indians in win-loss percentage.
   
3. "Philadelphia and Washington anchor the top and bottom of the NL East, but when we return, the central three teams will rank #2 Atlanta, #3 Florida, #4 Mets." -- Ouch!  I was way off on the NL East, which ended up seeing the Mets power to first, leading Philly, Florida, Atlanta, and Washington, respectively.
   
4. "Pittsburgh falls behind Houston for last place in the NL Central." -- Only a game off, but Houston still earns last place, a dramatic fall from a month or so ago (2nd in the Central by far).
   
5. "The NL West remains boring and noncompetitive. Arizona will still be in first place and will have a sub-.500 record." -- Spot on.  The Diamondbacks' 50-51 record is good enough for first place in the West.  No other division has more than 2 teams with fewer than 50 wins.  The West has four.
   
6. "Milwaukee leapfrogs St. Louis for the #2 position in the Central and consequently is in the wild card lead. Bratwurst around the nation quiver in fear as Brewer Nation assembles to tailgate. Troubled pitcher Eric Gagne returns to Miller Park -- but only as a Sausage Race runner. Randall Simon attends a game to give Gagne the cathartic thumpin' Milwaukee fans need." -- Tongue-in-cheek but pitch perfect.  The Brewers start hitting crazy good after the All-Star break and add CC Sabathia to create a scary pitching corps (at least for the NL).  Eric Gagne does indeed return to the team and wins 3 of 5 games.  Brewers' late-summer-collapse watch begins in earnest.

Of six predictions, I correctly foresaw three situations, got 2 of them half-way, and completely airballed the last.  That's pretty good for a three-week vacation.

Baseball Playoffs Now Hiatus

Baseball Playoffs Now is taking a few weeks' break for a much-needed vacation. We'll be bumming around Europe without the computer power necessary to update you with the best power rankings and playoff predictions. Enjoy the All-Star Game and break, as well as Independence Day and the dog days of summer.

Three cheers for the NL in the All-Star Game -- they need all the help they can get in the World Series.

Finally, as long as Baseball Playoffs Now is in the prediction business, here are the next three or four weeks:

1. Toronto overtakes Baltimore, but can't get any higher than 4th in the AL East.
2. Kansas City, tied for last in the Central, earns it by losing at a faster rate than Cleveland.
3. Philadelphia and Washington anchor the top and bottom of the NL East, but when we return, the central three teams will rank #2 Atlanta, #3 Florida, #4 Mets.
4. Pittsburgh falls behind Houston for last place in the NL Central.
5. The NL West remains boring and noncompetitive. Arizona will still be in first place and will have a sub-.500 record.
6. Milwaukee leapfrogs St. Louis for the #2 position in the Central and consequently is in the wild card lead. Bratwurst around the nation quiver in fear as Brewer Nation assembles to tailgate. Troubled pitcher Eric Gagne returns to Miller Park -- but only as a Sausage Race runner. Randall Simon attends a game to give Gagne the cathartic thumpin' Milwaukee fans need.

We'll see how these predictions pan out when we return in the last week or so of July. In the meantime, Happy Birthday USA and for the love of all that is good on this Earth, National League, win some games!!!

Tampa Bay Rays Are World Champions!

Boston and Chicago are knocked off their high perches as wild card Tampa Bay storms in for 7-game victories against the Red Sox, then against the Cubs in the World Series. The Rays are only a half-game back in the toughest division, and have played the toughest schedule in baseball. Tampa certainly earned their championship.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Home Field Advantage & The Five-Run Rule

Home teams are doing famously well this year. I can't pinpoint a cause like some intrepid accusers, but I can give the numbers:

Home teams: 672-511 (.568)
Away teams: 511-672 (.432)
Home team runs on average: 4.68
Away team runs on average: 4.37

The home team therefore has a 13.6% better chance at winning the ballgame, using 0.31 more runs on average to do so. We've already cited Cy Morong's Historical Trends in Home Field Advantage as a good source of HFA history, and it bears noticing that the average home field advantage is around 10%. Given baseball's long seasons, adding 3.6% more to HFA is equivalent to almost 6 more wins. That's the difference between playing in October and going home.

In other news, teams who have scored 5 runs or more in a ballgame this season have gone 465-90 (.838). If you play in one of the 47% of games in which one team scores at least 5 runs, it better be you. If it's not, you have less than a 20% chance of winning the game.

Tampa Closest To Wild Card By Far, Might Take AL East Anyway

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 96 - 66
3 - TAM : 95 - 67
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - LAA : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - NYY : 85 - 77
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - MIN : 85 - 77
11 - MIL : 84 - 78
12 - ATL : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 82 - 80
14 - BAL : 82 - 80
15 - DET : 81 - 81
16 - TEX : 81 - 81
17 - ARI : 80 - 82
18 - FLA : 80 - 82
19 - NYM : 80 - 82
20 - CLE : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 77 - 85
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 73 - 89
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 65 - 97
29 - SEA : 64 - 98
30 - WAS : 60 - 102

---

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
1 - LAA - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0,9565 (89 - 73)
5 - TAM - 0,9366 (95 - 67)
6 - TEX - 0,6317 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0,5740 (85 - 77)
8 - DET - 0,3037 (81 - 81)
9 - NYY - 0,2619 (85 - 77)
10 - CLE - 0,2258 (80 - 82)
11 - TOR - 0,0077 (82 - 80)
12 - BAL - 0,0000 (82 - 80)
12 - KAN - 0,0000 (77 - 85)
12 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1,0000 (95 - 67)
2 - OAK - 0,8154 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0,6890 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0,6636 (85 - 77)
5 - TOR - 0,5719 (82 - 80)
6 - BAL - 0,5683 (82 - 80)
7 - DET - 0,5434 (81 - 81)
8 - TEX - 0,5385 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0,5088 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0,4083 (77 - 85)
11 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - PHI - 1,0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1,0000 (80 - 82)
4 - ATL - 0,8525 (83 - 79)
5 - LAD - 0,8275 (78 - 84)
6 - FLA - 0,7531 (80 - 82)
7 - NYM - 0,7455 (80 - 82)
8 - STL - 0,5239 (85 - 77)
9 - SFO - 0,4964 (73 - 89)
10 - MIL - 0,4563 (84 - 78)
11 - COL - 0,1780 (68 - 94)
12 - HOU - 0,1607 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0,1558 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0,0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0,0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1,0000 (85 - 77)
2 - MIL - 0,9372 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0,9103 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0,8041 (80 - 82)
5 - NYM - 0,7960 (80 - 82)
6 - LAD - 0,7000 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0,6623 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0,6577 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0,5129 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0,4909 (73 - 89)
11 - COL - 0,2898 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0,1774 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

Baseball Rankings Now: June 27, 2008 -- Nine Of Top Ten Ballclubs American League

Overall Power Rankings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - MIN
8 - NYY
9 - BAL
10 - STL
11 - PHI
12 - MIL
13 - TOR
14 - TEX
15 - DET
16 - CLE
17 - ATL
18 - FLA
19 - KAN
20 - ARI
21 - NYM
22 - HOU
23 - PIT
24 - LAD
25 - CIN
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

---

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - MIN
7 - NYY
8 - BAL
9 - TOR
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - STL
3 - PHI
4 - MIL
5 - ATL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - HOU
10 - PIT
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

The Official Domination By The American League Has Begun

For the first time this season, the AL is not only incredibly strong in power rankings (63% to the NL's 37%), but also holds the top three divisions in Major League Baseball.  The National League Central can't even claim that its #2 out-of-division record is a good enough reason for it to be ranked higher than the fourth-best division, since it can't even come close to .500 in interleague play.  No AL division is fewer than 4 games above .500 in interleague games, and no NL division is fewer than 8 games below .500.  The NL West has lost a full two-thirds of its 69 matches against the AL.

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.0%
2 - NL - 37.0%

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 62.2%
3 - AL-W - 60.9%
4 - NL-C - 59.9%
5 - NL-E - 31.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.579 ( 140-102 , equals 93.7 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.536 ( 149-129 , equals 86.8 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.507 ( 114-111 , equals 82.1 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.498 ( 121-122 , equals 80.7 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.474 ( 117-130 , equals 76.7 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.406 ( 102-149 , equals 65.8 wins over one season)

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.596 ( 124-84 , equals 96.6 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.404 ( 84-124 , equals 65.4 wins over one season)
by division
1 - AL-C - 0.640
2 - AL-E - 0.603
3 - AL-W - 0.533
4 - NL-C - 0.446
5 - NL-E - 0.431
6 - NL-W - 0.333

Athletics Chasing Angels -- And Have 19-Rank Balance Advantage

Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

1 - HOU
2 - KAN
3 - LAD
4 - TOR
5 - NYM
6 - OAK - not good enough in own division
7 - CLE
8 - WAS - not good enough at home
9 - MIN
10 - SEA - not good enough at home
11 - NYY - not good enough in own division
12 - CIN - not good enough in own division
13 - STL - not good enough at home
14 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
15 - FLA - too dependent on own division
16 - PHI - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
17 - COL - too dependent on homestands
18 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
19 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
20 - SDG - too dependent on own division
21 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
22 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
23 - BAL - not good enough in own division
24 - DET - not good enough in own division
25 - LAA - not good enough at home
26 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
27 - ARI - too dependent on own division
28 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
29 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
30 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division

Phillies Win Divisional Series Over Cards, But Wild Card Rays Take LA For A Ride

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

AL East Holds Top Two Power Ranks

Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - MIN
9 - PHI
10 - STL
11 - BAL
12 - MIL
13 - TEX
14 - TOR
15 - DET
16 - FLA
17 - ATL
18 - CLE
19 - ARI
20 - KAN
21 - NYM
22 - PIT
23 - HOU
24 - LAD
25 - CIN
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

---

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - HOU
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

NL Hurting -- That's All There Is To Say

MLB League Rankings (including strength of schedule)
1 - AL - 61.6%
2 - NL - 38.4%

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.583 ( 116-83 , equals 94.4 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.417 ( 83-116 , equals 67.6 wins over one season)

MLB Division Rankings (including strength of schedule)
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 63.4%
3 - AL-W - 61.4%
4 - AL-C - 58.4%
5 - NL-E - 33.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.573 ( 137-102 , equals 92.9 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.540 ( 148-126 , equals 87.5 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.507 ( 113-110 , equals 82.1 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.490 ( 117-122 , equals 79.3 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.478 ( 117-128 , equals 77.4 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.411 ( 102-146 , equals 66.6 wins over one season)