NL Central Tumbles to Third-Best Division

The once-mighty NL Central - home to the mauling Cubs, resurgent Cards, surprising Astros, and on-again off-again Brewers, Reds, and Pirates - reached another nosedive milestone last night as the NL East overtook them for 2nd-best division in baseball.

Though the NL Central still outpaces the East in terms of wins and losses (.526 to .519, respectively), the NL East wins in every other category:

Average runs scored per 1 allowed:
NL Central: 1.040 runs scored
NL East: 1.087 runs scored

Projected average record by season's end:
NL Central: 83-79 (.515)
NL East: 86-76 (.528)

Average overall rating (v. strength of schedule):
NL Central: 12.83th place out of 30 teams (57.23th percentile)
NL East: 12.6th place out of 30 teams (58th percentile)

Overall rating by team:
Cubs (#1 overall)
Astros (#9)
Cardinals (#11)
Pirates (#16)
Brewers (#17)
Reds (#23)

Phillies (#5)
Braves (#7)
Mets (#12)
Marlins (#14)
Nationals (#25)

The pure averages of the Central and East's ratings are for comparison only; we use a more complex formula to determine which division is stronger (i.e. rating averages weighted towards the division's middle team(s) as well as results of games played outside the division).

Braves Bandwagon Part I

Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings on ESPN:

"Which team this year is most likely to come from even a couple of games back in the pack and show up in October? ... [O]ur pick would be the Braves. They have a better run differential (plus-48) than six of the eight teams that would make the playoffs if the postseason started today. They rank first or second in the league in batting average, ERA and rotation ERA. And the biggest reason for their .500-ish record (28-25) is their 2-14 record in one-run games.

"I'm going to predict this right now," said one NL scout. "I think Atlanta wins that division."

Jayson and unnamed NL scout, welcome to Baseball Playoffs Now, where Atlanta has been winning the NL East since April 22, when by record they were fourth in the division - but by our ratings easily on top.

White Sox over Boston in AL Championship Series; Lose to Cubs in World Series

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 5 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 30, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.5%
2 - NL - 47.5%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - PHI
6 - TOR
7 - ATL
8 - OAK
9 - HOU
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-E - 87.3%
3 - NL-C - 86.0%
4 - AL-W - 42.6%
5 - AL-C - 38.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - TOR
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - MIN
8 - TEX
9 - NYY
10 - BAL
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - HOU
5 - STL
6 - NYM
7 - ARI
8 - FLA
9 - PIT
10 - MIL
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

Phillies in NL Championship Series, Swept by Cubbies

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed TAM in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 29, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.0%
2 - NL - 47.0%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - CHW
6 - PHI
7 - TOR
8 - ATL
9 - HOU
10 - ARI

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 89.1%
3 - NL-E - 82.8%
4 - AL-W - 49.1%
5 - AL-C - 39.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CHW
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - TEX
9 - NYY
10 - MIN
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - HOU
5 - ARI
6 - STL
7 - NYM
8 - MIL
9 - FLA
10 - CIN
11 - LAD
12 - PIT
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

AL West Growing in Strength - Thanks to Texas?!

Earlier this season the home of AL doormats Seattle and Texas, the AL West is beginning to pick up speed, moving from 5th to 4th in our division poll. Texas has jumped to .500 on the season and #15 in our MLB power rankings, and the Angels (#10) and Oakland (#3) are doing more than enough to offset the woes of the #29 Mariners.

Since Seattle's season has been terrible for a while now, and the A's and Angels have been duking it out for the West lead with excellent rankings each, it really falls to Texas to increase or decrease the division's strength. Just 5 days ago, the Rangers were ranked 11th in the AL and the AL West was ranked 5th out of 6 divisions. But recent games, especially last night's win in Tampa Bay by 6 runs (over the top-ranked team in the top-ranked division), provided a giant boost to Texas' rating. Along with wins by the A's and Angels, now-8th-in-the-AL Texas was a huge reason that the AL West's strength meter climbed from about one-third of the AL East's power to over one-half (since Tampa's loss also caused the East's strength to fall slightly).

Over the past 10 games, Seattle has been the worst-performing team - but Texas, Los Angeles, and Oakland are all around the 85th baseball-wide percentile. Next up for the AL West to overcome: the #3 division NL East, who will be a tough nut to crack...

Atlanta: 7th overall, 52% last 10 games
Florida: 14th overall, 40% last 10 games
New York Mets: 12th overall, 49% last 10 games
Philadelphia: 6th overall, 98% last 10 games
Washington: 25th overall, 17% last 10 games

2008 MLB Final Four: Oakland, Boston, Chicago Cubs, Arizona

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 3 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 3 seed PHI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 28, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.3%
2 - NL - 46.7%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - OAK
4 - BOS
5 - CHW
6 - PHI
7 - ATL
8 - ARI
9 - HOU
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 86.5%
3 - NL-E - 80.0%
4 - AL-W - 52.9%
5 - AL-C - 36.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - OAK
3 - BOS
4 - CHW
5 - LAA
6 - TOR
7 - BAL
8 - TEX
9 - CLE
10 - MIN
11 - NYY
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - ARI
5 - HOU
6 - NYM
7 - FLA
8 - STL
9 - MIL
10 - LAD
11 - PIT
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

Why Our Metrics Are Saber

Baseball Playoffs Now is an offshoot of the math-infused-baseball study known as sabermetrics. Most sabermetricians are concerned with individual players; I am one of the few who study team trends only. We believe that number analysis opens up new ways of being a fan, and can even make the game more enjoyable, among other benefits. While the more traditional enthusiasts spurn statistics and call this pastime "playing baseball on a calculator," the author of Baseball Playoffs Now is more than able to field a ground ball, as can most sabermetricians. Unlike some, I don't want to be stuck up about stats; designing algorithms makes it perfectly clear that interpreting math can be just as subjective as interpreting while sitting at a ballgame eating bratwurst. Instead, thinking about and writing about stats is a pursuit of truth that is not immediately obvious. This is why Baseball Playoffs Now writes about Methods and Statistics: thoughtfulness about beliefs and interpretations ought to extend to all areas of life, especially baseball.

Methods and Statistics Explained: Part II

Part II: Computer Modeling

There is little more controversial in sports than the proper method to determine strength of schedule. Luckily, most leagues use pure wins and losses to determine entrance into playoffs and the seeds therein. In college sports, the sheer number of teams and wide range of schedule difficulties prohibit the win-loss percentage from being the sole criterion to determine the best teams.

Major League Baseball proper won't need strength of schedule any time soon. But for those of us concerned with predicting future performance, especially playoff performance, knowing a team's strength against its schedule is of paramount importance, since it differentiates teams so clearly.

A key concept to understand is retrodictive ratings versus predictive ratings. Retrodictive ratings only care about wins and losses, and pretty accurately show which teams have won the most based on the difficulty of their schedule (which is also figured out based only on wins and losses).

Predictive ratings, on the other hand, care only about runs scored and allowed. This run ratio is an accurate measure of how well a team will perform in the future, and ignores whether a team actually won the ballgame. A team's difficulty of schedule is calculated using run ratios of opponents and not wins/losses.

It's clear that both of these methods have a good deal of value for rating teams, and that neither should be used exclusively. Statisticians like Jeff Sagarin synthesize retrodiction and prediction to create a meaningful halfway-point between past and future performance, and Baseball Playoffs Now follows this example.

Rating Method

The algorithm for rating a team is very simple:

Home Team Rating + Home Field Advantage - Away Team Rating = average difference between the two teams over the entire season

The difficulty, of course, is that teams perform differently from one day to the next, and from one opponent to the next. There is no perfect rating for any team that explains exactly what happened during any given ballgame. The Padres can beat the Dodgers by 5 today and lose by 3 tomorrow, while the Dodgers beat the Giants twice by 7, and the Giants beat the Padres by 5 and lose by 2.

There is an optimal point somewhere between all of the scores that describes the average performance of San Diego, San Francisco, and Los Angeles against each other. The computer's goal is to find that point and minimize the error. Baseball Playoffs Now's algorithm constantly adjusts each team's rating (which then ripples out throughout Major League Baseball, since every team is connected to every other team through a formula for every game) and finds the point at which there is the least MLB-wide error. At that point, we have the optimal ratings for today.

Running this system twice (once with run ratios, once with wins/losses only), we create two ratings for each team: predictive and retrodictive. Synthesizing them creates an important part of Baseball Playoffs Now's overall rating for each team. You can see below the difference between today's predictive and retrodictive ratings for each team. I have starred teams with 8 or more rank differences between the two ratings.

Computer Models (predictive = run ratios, retrodictive = wins/losses)
ARI - predictive # 8 - retrodictive # 13
ATL - predictive # 6 - retrodictive # 14 *****
BAL - predictive # 18 - retrodictive # 11
BOS - predictive # 7 - retrodictive # 2
CHC - predictive # 1 - retrodictive # 7
CHW - predictive # 3 - retrodictive # 4
CIN - predictive # 24 - retrodictive # 22
CLE - predictive # 11 - retrodictive # 23 *****
COL - predictive # 28 - retrodictive # 28
DET - predictive # 20 - retrodictive # 26
FLA - predictive # 17 - retrodictive # 9 *****
HOU - predictive # 14 - retrodictive # 8
KAN - predictive # 26 - retrodictive # 24
LAA - predictive # 10 - retrodictive # 3
LAD - predictive # 16 - retrodictive # 19
MIL - predictive # 23 - retrodictive # 18
MIN - predictive # 22 - retrodictive # 16
NYM - predictive # 13 - retrodictive # 21 *****
NYY - predictive # 15 - retrodictive # 17
OAK - predictive # 2 - retrodictive # 6
PHI - predictive # 4 - retrodictive # 12 *****
PIT - predictive # 19 - retrodictive # 20
SDG - predictive # 30 - retrodictive # 30
SEA - predictive # 29 - retrodictive # 29
SFO - predictive # 27 - retrodictive # 27
STL - predictive # 12 - retrodictive # 10
TAM - predictive # 5 - retrodictive # 1
TEX - predictive # 21 - retrodictive # 15
TOR - predictive # 9 - retrodictive # 5
WAS - predictive # 25 - retrodictive # 25

Chicago Cubs Win 103 Games in 2008

To predict the final record of all baseball teams, we use a modified Smyth/Patriot method to find the most probable number of wins in the remainder of the season based on previous runs scored - runs allowed ratios.

That is, the Milwaukee Brewers currently have a .471 win-loss record over 51 games (or 31.48% of the season). Their history-adjusted run ratio is 0.887 runs scored for every 1 run allowed (223.578 runs scored to 251.930 runs allowed), to which Smyth/Patriot returns an expected future win/loss record of .444.

51 prior games of .471 baseball plus 111 future games of .444 baseball equals a final record of .452, or 73 wins out of 162 ball games.

This is one of the few not completely homegrown statistics on Baseball Playoffs Now, and this site is indebted to Bill James and the later Smyth/Patriot adjustments for their work.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC - 103 - 59
2 - ARI - 98 - 64
3 - OAK - 95 - 67
4 - ATL - 95 - 67
5 - TAM - 94 - 68
6 - PHI - 94 - 68
7 - CHW - 94 - 68
8 - BOS - 93 - 69
9 - STL - 91 - 71
10 - FLA - 90 - 72
11 - LAA - 88 - 74
12 - TOR - 86 - 76
13 - LAD - 85 - 77
14 - HOU - 85 - 77
15 - CLE - 81 - 81
16 - NYY - 79 - 83
17 - NYM - 79 - 83
18 - BAL - 79 - 83
19 - TEX - 78 - 84
20 - MIN - 77 - 85
21 - PIT - 75 - 87
22 - DET - 73 - 89
23 - MIL - 73 - 89
24 - CIN - 72 - 90
25 - WAS - 67 - 95
26 - SFO - 63 - 99
27 - KAN - 63 - 99
28 - COL - 63 - 99
29 - SEA - 59 - 103
30 - SDG - 58 - 104

Phillies Take NL Wild Card, Stomped by Cubs in 3

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed PHI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed TAM in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 27, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.8%
2 - NL - 47.2%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - TAM
2 - CHC
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - CHW
6 - ARI
7 - ATL
8 - PHI
9 - TOR
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 79.9%
3 - NL-E - 77.3%
4 - AL-W - 38.3%
5 - AL-C - 34.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CHW
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - NYY
9 - MIN
10 - CLE
11 - TEX
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ARI
3 - ATL
4 - PHI
5 - HOU
6 - STL
7 - FLA
8 - NYM
9 - LAD
10 - PIT
11 - MIL
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SFO
16 - SDG

Oakland Athletics Exactly That

More proof that pure win-loss numbers unduly influence power rankings: here are the latest polls from well-known networks.

Oakland A's
Win-loss record: 0.549, #10 in the majors
ESPN: Athletics #14
CBS: Athletics #12
FOX: Athletics #7
AOL: Athletics #10

The average A's ranking is #10.75, just a bit worse than its tenth-place win-loss record, and therefore believable to the casual fan. But Baseball Playoffs Now doesn't think that #10 ranking is reasonable at all. Consider the following:

- The Athletics scored the 6th-most quality wins of any team against a medium-level schedule (17th). Most of the high quality-wins teams are playing easier schedules, so we place the A's at #7 in quality wins against their schedule.
- Over the last 10 games, Oakland is 9th in Major League Baseball: a mediocre 5-5 record is buoyed by a sweep of Boston and squeaker losses against Tampa and Atlanta.
- Over the season so far, observing only the Athletics' wins and losses and the same for all of their opponents (that is, ignoring runs scored and runs allowed), the A's are #5 in baseball.
- On the other hand, observing only the Athletics' runs scored and runs allowed and the same for all of their opponents (ignoring wins and losses), the A's do even better with second place in baseball.
- With a run ratio of 1.263 runs scored for every run allowed, Oakland is projected to win 95 games in 2008, 3rd in Major League baseball and top in the American League.
- Oakland is balanced between winning at home (.593) and away (.500), not depending exclusively on homestands to boost their record. Their road record is the third-best in the AL.

With all of these top-ten stats, it comes as no surprise that the Athletics are ranked #4 overall in Baseball Playoffs Now's power rankings. With home-field advantage in the playoffs as a #1 seed and having held their own against Boston and Tampa Bay so far, Oakland is on pace to become the AL representative in the World Series.

AL East Now Best Division in Baseball

In a move several weeks in the making, the NL Central falls behind the AL East in Baseball Playoffs Now's division rankings. The AL East had just topped the NL East to become the #2 division on May 19th, and scarcely a week later triumphs over the NL Central to become the best division in baseball.

The AL East boasts two teams in the top three (Tampa Bay and Boston), the no. 9 team (Toronto) which is listed as the third quickest-rising team in Major League Baseball, and the Yankees and Orioles at #14 and #18 respectively.

The Chicago Cubs anchor the NL Central as the best team in baseball, but the rest of the division fades away quickly: Houston (#11), St. Louis (#13), Pittsburgh (#17), Milwaukee (#21), and Cincinnati (#23).

Part of our division rankings is weighting the rankings of the division's middle team(s) more than the top and bottom teams. Third place Toronto's #9 ranking is therefore a very strong indicator of the East's strength, whereas third- and fourth-place St. Louis (#13) and Pittsburgh (#17) don't inspire nearly as much confidence. Bear in mind that placement within divisions is not based on win-loss record only, but on our overall rankings (which include, among other things, strength of schedule).

But before writing off the Central completely, consider that the average quality wins in out-of-division games are virtually identical between the NL Central and the AL East. The East has only a 1% advantage in out-of-division games and, before this weekend where they went 6-3, trailed the Central.

Oakland, Tampa Bay Back in American League Championship Series

After a couple weeks of Red Sox and White Sox dominance in the American League, Oakland and Tampa Bay move back into the AL Championship Series. The A's swept the Red Sox this weekend, ensuring at least a few days of the AL crown, and the Rays swept Baltimore, a slightly less impressive feat. But a combined record of 1-5 over the last three games by Chicago and Boston won't take them too far in our playoff predictions.

In National League news, Atlanta's series loss to Arizona drops them below the Diamondbacks in the playoffs and out of the NL Championship Series, a position the Braves had held for only one weekend.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed TAM in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: May 26, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.8%
2 - NL - 47.2%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - CHW
6 - ARI
7 - ATL
8 - PHI
9 - TOR
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 81.4%
3 - NL-E - 79.2%
4 - AL-W - 38.1%
5 - AL-C - 36.4%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CHW
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - NYY
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - MIN
11 - TEX
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ARI
3 - ATL
4 - PHI
5 - HOU
6 - NYM
7 - STL
8 - LAD
9 - FLA
10 - PIT
11 - MIL
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SFO
16 - SDG

Florida, Atlanta Too Unbalanced?

There are quite a few ways to define a balanced ball club; one of the major stats is home record v. away record. A team who can only win at home isn't usually considered particularly strong, even if their record is above average. Here are the six most unbalanced baseball teams (who have the largest quality win difference between home record and overall record):

Home Performance Most Important (and worthy of suspicion?)
1. Atlanta (20-5 at home, 26-21 overall)
2. Cincinnati (14-9 at home, 21-27 overall)
3. Boston (21-5 at home, 31-19 overall)

Away Performance Most Important (and better teams than they appear?)
1. Florida (11-8 on the road, 27-19 overall)
2. St. Louis (11-11 on the road, 28-21 overall)
3. Texas (12-14 on the road, 24-25 overall)

Of course there are better teams both at home and on the road than the six above, but they are much more balanced (like the Angels at 14-10 on the road, who also have a record of 14-11 at home). Later we'll have ratings of the most balanced teams in baseball.

Boston #1 Overall, Cubs #2, Atlanta #3

MLB Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ATL over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ATL in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

The top two teams in baseball meet in the 2008 World Series, and though Boston is currently the better team overall, Chicago has shown a greater propensity for scoring runs against good teams. Until we know which league gets home field advantage, we award the World Championship to the Chicago Cubs.

Overall Rank
1 - BOS
2 - CHC
3 - ATL
4 - CHW
5 - TAM
6 - OAK
7 - ARI
8 - FLA
9 - NYM
10 - HOU
11 - LAA
12 - PHI
13 - LAD
14 - TOR
15 - BAL
16 - CLE
17 - PIT
18 - STL
19 - MIL
20 - NYY
21 - MIN
22 - TEX
23 - CIN
24 - WAS
25 - DET
26 - KAN
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - SFO

Baseball Rankings Now: May 23, 2008

Introducing division and league rankings (though we've had division rankings up for a week or so)...

The formula for figuring out the better division or league is simple:
Average rating of teams within that group
+
Quality wins scored by that group in out-of-division or interleague games

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.1%
2 - NL - 46.9%

MLB Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - AL-E
3 - NL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - CHW
3 - TAM
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - TOR
7 - BAL
8 - CLE
9 - NYY
10 - MIN
11 - TEX
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ATL
3 - ARI
4 - FLA
5 - NYM
6 - HOU
7 - PHI
8 - LAD
9 - PIT
10 - STL
11 - MIL
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Home Teams Winning 78% Above Century Average

Home teams are 411-302 so far this season - a 57.64% win rate - while away teams are struggling. The difference between home (winning 57.64% of games) and away (winning only 42.36% of games) is a 15.29% home field advantage. This number is important because over the past century, home teams have not enjoyed such a high rate of success.

Cy Morong's Historical Trends in Home Field Advantage cites the average home field advantage from 1901 to 2003 as 8.57%, though individual years may be much better, such as the 2003 Colorado Rockies, whose mile-high Coors Field proffered a 29.6% home field advantage. The 2008 season so far, therefore, is running 78% better for home teams than the previous century's normal rate. We can't tell you why, but it does affect how we rate teams. Winning away is much more valuable for a team's ratings this season, since fewer teams are doing it.

We also look at home field advantage from a runs scored v. runs allowed perspective. Home teams have scored 3354 runs and allowed 3054 runs to score, which is an average score of Home Club 4.70 winning over Away Club 4.28. The home field advantage in runs is currently 0.42 runs (4.70 home minus 4.28 away).

You may have heard the rule of thumb which states that if a team scores 5 runs, they have put themselves in an excellent position to win the ball game. The maxim is once again proven true, as any opponent will likely score approximately 4.5 runs per game. And in fact, in the 337 games so far this season in which at least one team has scored 5 runs, 281 (83.38%) of those clubs have won the game.

Methods and Statistics Explained

Baseball Playoffs Now's Methods and Statistics series explains how we get the results we do - and especially why our mathematical interpretations differ from public stats posted on sites like ESPN's MLB standings or stats pages.

Part I: History

History - or the concept of "fading memory" in stats - is used in almost every application on this site. Baseball Playoffs Now firmly believes that August play is more important than April play when predicting playoff contenders or outcomes. Most commentators deal with a team's Last 10 Games because that is an easy statistic to track, and we offer standings over that same period as a comparative value. However, unlike those commentators, we do not see a team's record broken into two categories: Last 10 Games (most important) and Ancient History (least important).

Baseball Playoffs Now has created a unique algorithm to rate each game in the season with a historical value, a coefficient which is included in most every formula we use. This historical coefficient is quite simple: if today's game were the Brewers' 11th game of the season, then game 6 - the game directly in the middle of the season so far - would have a value of 1.0 (that is, no change whatsoever). Game 1 would have a value around 0.97 and Game 11 would have a value around 1.03. These bottom and top values (0.97 and 1.03) begin to separate as more games are played.

After yesterday's games, the season so far for all teams has lasted 687 games, an average of 45.8 games per team. That means that Game 1 of this season is rated 85.8% as important as the middle game and Game 46 of this season (from yesterday) is rated 114.2% as important as the middle game.

Now, history becomes important when we look at statistics like runs scored and runs allowed. The Yankees have scored 181 runs and allowed 209 runs to score this season. But multiplying each of their game scores by that game's history value allows us to see the Yankee trend: their historically-weighted run ratio is 178.6 runs scored to 209.2 runs allowed. The interpretation is clear: New York has been doing worse recently than if you looked at their season overall. And this realization that New York is on a slide must be taken into account when making predictions and rankings.

Our Last 10 Games stat also bears the marks of history; we do not weight the last 10 games equally but rather give them their normal history weight on the same sliding scale with every other game. The absolute best way to look at a team's recent play is to look at the season as a whole, with every game weighted for its historical importance. But in order to make comparisons with the well-known Last 10 stat, we also offer a look at a team's season cut off at 10 games and rank the teams on that measure as well.

So if you're checking our run ratios and wondering why we just quoted Atlanta at 1.310 runs scored for every 1 allowed (when their 217 runs scored and 166 runs allowed clearly shows a ratio of 1.307), it means that Atlanta's excellent recent play has bumped up their weighted run ratio by a slight amount. It doesn't sound like a lot, but the difference between the #4 Red Sox at 1.195 and #5 White Sox at 1.190 is only 0.005 runs. Statistics calculated over many low-scoring games show very small differences between teams; this is why a value for history is so important, because it clearly illuminates the better team (by one measure) between nominally equal clubs.

Atlanta on the Rise...Again

Baseball Playoffs Now has been a Braves fan this season for the simple reason that they continually show up on the Underrated list and the Teams on the Rise standings. Playing in a relatively tough division, Atlanta is second in the major leagues in run ratio - scoring 1.310 runs for every 1 given up - as well as second overall in quality wins against schedule. Their play over the last 10 games is 8th in the majors and the Braves are now only 1.5 games behind Florida. Looking at the Watch List to predict teams on the rise, we wrote at the beginning of the month, "Look for the Braves to take over." Atlanta is proving us right.

MLB Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - AL-E
3 - NL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - BAL
6 - LAA
7 - CLE
8 - TOR
9 - MIN
10 - NYY
11 - TEX
12 - KAN
13 - DET
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ATL
3 - ARI
4 - NYM
5 - HOU
6 - LAD
7 - FLA
8 - PHI
9 - PIT
10 - MIL
11 - STL
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

MLB Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

Nationals Most Underrated, Diamondbacks Most Overrated

Today's edition of Baseball's Most Underrated and Overrated Teams features Washington and Arizona, respectively. This stat derives from a team's overall rating percentile generated with our custom algorithms versus that team's win-loss percentile on the field. This is not a "directional" statistic; that is, the most underrated team is not expected to begin winning immediately and the most overrated team will probably not start losing. We have the Watch List for that sort of thing. These numbers are simply for additional insight into win-loss percentages.

The Washington Nationals are last in the NL East with a record of 20-26 and score only .838 runs for every 1 allowed. But Washington has played the toughest schedule in Major League Baseball, and over the last 10 games, the Nats have won major series against Pittsburgh and the Mets in New York. This team is only 6 below .500 against baseball's best: Atlanta (#6 overall), Philly (#17), St. Louis (#18), Florida (#14), Mets (#4), Cubs (#1), Pittsburgh (#9), Houston (#12), and Baltimore (#16). The Nationals haven't played any teams in the bottom third of Major League Baseball and have still managed to pull out 20 wins so far.

Similarly, the Arizona Diamondbacks are first in the NL West with a record of 28-16, scoring 1.286 runs for every 1 run allowed. Arizona really is playing spectacularly, but consider that their competition is the 2nd-easiest schedule in the bigs and that their first-place standing is a triumph over the worst division by far. The Diamondbacks' wins come from series against Cincinnati (#19), Colorado (#27), Dodgers (#15), San Francisco (#30), San Diego (#29), Houston (#12), Mets (#4), Philly (#17), Cubs (#1), and Detroit (#26). Even worse, their record against the three teams in the top half of baseball - Houston, Mets, and Cubs - is only 3-6.

Important series coming up for the Nats: Arizona (#5) and Pittsburgh (#9)
Important series coming up for the D'backs: Florida (#14) and Atlanta (#6)

Cardinals Edge Out Mets For Wild Card - But Trip In First Round

MLB Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - AL-E
3 - NL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - OAK
4 - CHW
5 - CLE
6 - TOR
7 - LAA
8 - BAL
9 - MIN
10 - NYY
11 - TEX
12 - KAN
13 - DET
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - NYM
3 - ARI
4 - ATL
5 - PIT
6 - HOU
7 - FLA
8 - LAD
9 - PHI
10 - STL
11 - CIN
12 - WAS
13 - MIL
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

MLB Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

A Little More Parity

After a comfortable ride at #2 in the Division Rankings - flirting with the top spot for a couple days - the NL East drops to third. Brokering this change is a stronger effort by the AL East (of whom Tampa and Baltimore are 2nd and 7th in recent play respectively) and slightly shoddy work by the NL East.

Over the last ten games, the AL East went 29-21 and the NL East earned a 23-27 record. We now have a slight American League advantage in division rankings, borne out by this past weekend's .551 interleague quality win record for the AL compared with .470 on the National League side.

MLB Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - AL-E
3 - NL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - OAK
4 - CHW
5 - CLE
6 - LAA
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - MIN
10 - NYY
11 - TEX
12 - KAN
13 - DET
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - NYM
3 - ARI
4 - ATL
5 - HOU
6 - FLA
7 - PIT
8 - LAD
9 - PHI
10 - CIN
11 - STL
12 - WAS
13 - MIL
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

MLB Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed NYM in 3 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 3 seed ATL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

Cleveland Shocks Oakland for Shot at Cubs in World Series

MLB Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CLE over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 3 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed HOU in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CLE over no. 2 seed OAK in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CLE in 5 games. ***

Well, look at that. Cleveland ascends the playoff ladder by leaps and bounds after last night's sweep of Oakland. Not only are they now first in the AL Central, but they are on pace to win 94 games and the top seed in the American League playoffs. Thanks to a slight home field advantage, the Indians power past Boston and Oakland to face Chicago in the 2008 World Series.

Except for their division lead, the Indians would be in a very good position in our Watch List (we ignore teams who are first in their division, simply because they are already on the public radar). Cleveland is scoring 25% more runs than they allow, their play over the past couple weeks is rated 5th in baseball, and their runs scored/allowed against strength of schedule is 2nd in Major League Baseball (thanks to impressive scoring and series wins against the Blue Jays and Yankees).

On the other hand, the Indians' schedule has been fairly pedestrian (18th overall); for every Oakland they play, there is a Kansas City or Seattle the next week. We'll have to wait for future series to clear things up. But this next month should be a cakewalk:

- @ Cincinnati (#21 overall)
- @ Chicago Sox (#13)
- Texas (#24)
- Chicago Sox (#13)
- @ Kansas City (#26)
- @ Texas (#24)
- @ Detroit (#28)
- Minnesota (#23)
- San Diego (#27)
- @ Colorado (#25)

Cleveland ought to coast through May/June and solidify their division lead.

MLB Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - NL-E
3 - AL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CLE
5 - CHW
6 - NYY
7 - BAL
8 - TOR
9 - LAA
10 - MIN
11 - TEX
12 - KAN
13 - DET
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ARI
3 - HOU
4 - FLA
5 - ATL
6 - NYM
7 - LAD
8 - PHI
9 - PIT
10 - MIL
11 - STL
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Angels Choking

I just can't say enough about how the national media loves to overrate the Los Angeles Angels. They're 6 games above .500 and should be congratulated for that (and they picked up our #7 ranking in wins/losses for their efforts). BUT the Angels are:

- 19th in quality wins playing against the
- 7th easiest schedule yet
- only ranked 21st in their last 10 games and
- ranked 19th given runs-scored/allowed + strength of schedule. Moreover, they
- score .992 runs for every 1 given up and
- are barely in 1st place - by half a game - in the 2nd-worst division in baseball.

My Watch List database is programmed to highlight statistics in red when they fall below a certain threshold. The Angels' numbers look like a fire engine.

Baseball Rankings Now: May 15, 2008

Evidence of media bias:
- AOL Sports rates the Yankees #2 in baseball and the Angels get sixth
- CBS puts the Angels at third place in the bigs
- FOX ranks the Los Angeles Angels fourth and the Dodgers seventh

Now let's look at the stats, free of regional bias: we rate the Yanks #16 because of mediocre play, the Angels are no better than #18 because of a laughable 7th-easiest schedule, and the Dodgers reach #11 overall but suffer from the worst performance over the last 10 games in baseball. Apparently it's all too easy to look at coastal New York and Los Angeles and write things like "Once [the Yankees] get their starting pitching together, they'll be there" (AOL).

Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - NL-E
3 - AL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CLE
5 - CHW
6 - NYY
7 - BAL
8 - LAA
9 - TOR
10 - MIN
11 - TEX
12 - KAN
13 - DET
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ARI
3 - HOU
4 - ATL
5 - FLA
6 - NYM
7 - LAD
8 - MIL
9 - STL
10 - PHI
11 - PIT
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CLE over no. 3 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed HOU in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed CLE in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 5 games. ***

Gunning for Second in the NL Central

The Cubs are winning the Central; that's old news by now (and this week's playoff predictions have consistently had the Cubs winning the World Series too). But 1, 1.5, 3, 4, and 6.5 games back are five strong teams that make the NL Central the toughest division in baseball. St. Louis is the current #2 - but who really deserves that title?

Wins/Losses + Strength of Schedule (forgetting runs entirely):
Houston - 7th
Milwaukee - 11th
St. Louis - 12th
Pittsburgh - 15th
Cincinnati - 23th

Runs Scored/Allowed + Strength of Schedule (forgetting wins/losses entirely):
Houston - 9th
St. Louis - 18th
Pittsburgh - 19th
Milwaukee - 21th
Cincinnati - 22th

A more thorough algorithm:
Quality Wins (wins/losses + location + runs scored/allowed + strength of schedule):
Houston - 8th
Milwaukee - 9th
Pittsburgh - 11th
Cincinnati - 13th
St. Louis - 19th

Last 10 Games:
Houston - 2nd
Pittsburgh - 8th
Milwaukee - 19th
Cincinnati - 20th
St. Louis - 27th

Whew. So what do all of those rankings give us? Well, St. Louis drops out of second place, certainly. Let's look at the NL Power Ratings for today, showing only the NL Central:
1 - CHC
4 - HOU
7 - MIL
10 - PIT
11 - STL
12 - CIN

There we have it: the Houston Astros rank first in all of the NL Central polls (that omit the Cubs) and have the best chance of taking second in the division, which we project them to do with 90 wins.

Houston Sneaks Into Wild-Card, Promptly Loses

Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - NL-E
3 - AL-E
4 - AL-W
5 - AL-C
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - OAK
4 - CLE
5 - LAA
6 - MIN
7 - CHW
8 - NYY
9 - BAL
10 - TOR
11 - TEX
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - ARI
3 - NYM
4 - HOU
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - MIL
8 - PHI
9 - LAD
10 - PIT
11 - STL
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed BOS in 4 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CLE in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed HOU in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed TAM in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 5 games. ***

Minnesota Fallin'

The Twins are the winners of today's dubious twin honors: Worst in First and #1 Team on the Fall. That is, they are the worst team in first place in baseball and the team most showing signs of cardiac arrest.

Sure, Minnesota is 12th in baseball by win-loss percentage and first in the AL Central, but check out the rest of their vital signs:

- .992 runs scored for every 1 run allowed (#16 overall)
- in first place...in the second-worst division
- #16 in quality wins (location of the game + run ratio versus the rest of baseball)
- #20 in schedule difficulty
- 6-4 over the last ten games...but only ranked 15th over that same period because of four- and five-run losses to the White Sox (ranked #18 overall) and a couple of small wins against Detroit (#25 overall)
- by wins and losses only, the Twins are in the 66th percentile in baseball...but introducing runs scored/allowed and strength of schedule, Minnesota is ranked around 45%

Given the mediocre rankings in all facets of their performance, it comes as no surprise that Minnesota's overall rank is #17 and their playoff rank is #18 (stats specific to predicting future games).

The only bright sign for Minnesota is its upcoming schedule:
- @ Colorado Rockies (#26)
- Texas Rangers (#24)
- @ Detroit Tigers (#25)
- @ Kansas City Royals (#27)

If the Twins can't win three of these series, they're in serious trouble.

Baseball Rankings Now: May 13, 2008; also, Cubs Win!

Another weekend delay, this one caused by bad switches in my neighborhood - but after 4 days of play, the rankings are here. And in the current playoff predictions, the Chicago Cubs not only grab a no. 1 seed in the National League, but triumph over Oakland in 5 games in the 2008 World Series.

Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - NL-E
3 - AL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - OAK
4 - MIN
5 - CLE
6 - CHW
7 - LAA
8 - NYY
9 - BAL
10 - TOR
11 - TEX
12 - DET
13 - SEA
14 - KAN

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - HOU
3 - FLA
4 - ARI
5 - ATL
6 - NYM
7 - MIL
8 - STL
9 - LAD
10 - PHI
11 - PIT
12 - WAS
13 - CIN
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CLE in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ARI over no. 4 seed HOU in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed ARI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 5 games. ***

Baseball Ratings Now: May 9, 2008

Division Rankings
1 - NL-E
2 - NL-C
3 - AL-E
4 - AL-W
5 - AL-C
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - OAK
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - CLE
9 - MIN
10 - BAL
11 - DET
12 - TEX
13 - SEA
14 - KAN

NL Power Ratings
1 - ARI
2 - NYM
3 - ATL
4 - LAD
5 - CHC
6 - FLA
7 - PHI
8 - STL
9 - HOU
10 - WAS
11 - PIT
12 - MIL
13 - COL
14 - CIN
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

World Series Projection: Oakland over Arizona in 5

The Chicago Cubs fall in the playoff rankings and Atlanta rises because of last night's games. In addition, Cleveland edges out the White Sox for the AL Central title.

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 4 seed TOR in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CLE in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed ATL over no. 3 seed CHC in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed BOS in 4 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 2 seed ATL in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed OAK over no. 1 seed ARI in 5 games. ***

Division Rankings
1 - NL-C
2 - NL-E
3 - AL-E
4 - AL-C
5 - AL-W
6 - NL-W

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - OAK
3 - TAM
4 - LAA
5 - TOR
6 - CLE
7 - CHW
8 - MIN
9 - NYY
10 - BAL
11 - DET
12 - TEX
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - ARI
2 - NYM
3 - CHC
4 - ATL
5 - LAD
6 - STL
7 - PHI
8 - HOU
9 - FLA
10 - MIL
11 - PIT
12 - CIN
13 - WAS
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Baseball Rankings Now: May 7, 2008

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - OAK
3 - TAM
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - CLE
9 - BAL
10 - MIN
11 - DET
12 - SEA
13 - TEX
14 - KAN

NL Power Ratings
1 - ARI
2 - CHC
3 - LAD
4 - STL
5 - ATL
6 - NYM
7 - HOU
8 - PHI
9 - MIL
10 - FLA
11 - PIT
12 - WAS
13 - CIN
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - SFO

Cubs Set to Break World Series Curse; Beat Dodgers, D'Backs, Sweep A's

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 4 seed LAA in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 3 seed ATL in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 4 seed LAD in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed ARI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 2 seed CHC over no. 1 seed OAK in 4 games. ***

Here's our rationale for playoff predictions. Seeds are generated by projecting the final record and division placement of all teams in the majors. Alongside the win-loss prediction, each team carries a separate rating called the Playoff Rating. This number is an average of specific statistics that describe how teams fare in the postseason. The playoffs above show each match-up determined by seed (wins and losses) but the winner of each game is determined by playoff rating moderated by historical home field advantage. The number of games for each series is only a fun projection; we don't have nearly enough data to guess that.

Currently, Oakland is second in the AL West, but strong offensive/defensive showings place them above the Angels by September. The current pace gives Oakland 101 wins and Los Angeles 90 wins, but the Angels still have enough moxie to capture the AL wild card.

Boston won't move a whit out of first place and will end up with 96 wins, despite a push by Toronto into second place with 85 wins.

Minnesota owns the AL Central lead right now, thanks to the only above-.500 record in that division. They can't count on that for the entire season, though; the White Sox have enough talent to make significant gains on the Twins. Chicago ends up with 96 wins and the Twins fall to 3rd with 76 wins.

In the National League, Arizona takes the no. 1 seed with 104 wins, best in baseball, remaining in first place in the NL West despite the Dodgers moving close. Los Angeles pulls out 100 wins in the end and takes the wild card spot.

Chicago and St. Louis duel for the Central crown, but their scoring records show teams moving in different directions. The Cards have a great runs-scored v. -allowed ratio (6th-best in the MLB) but it's not enough to sustain their current pace. On the other hand, the Cubs have the best run ratio in baseball and won't show too many losing streaks like that of this past week. Chicago wins 103 games and St. Louis takes 98.

In the NL East, Atlanta rises precipitously from 3rd place into 1st place, due to their offensive power (2nd-best run ratio in baseball), running roughshod over the backs of current leaders Florida and Philadelphia, #17 and #9 in scoring/defending power respectively. Baseball Playoffs Now gives the Braves 100 wins on the season, well above the eventual second-place Phillies (90 wins) and Mets (80 wins).

Divisional Championships
It's really too bad that the Dodgers got seeded against the Cubs. Los Angeles has the 3rd-best playoff rating in major league baseball - but has to play Chicago, the owner of the best playoff rating. Besides, the Cubs will have the 100-years-fermented taste of playoffs in their mouths; let's give them the divisional round.

No. 1 seed Arizona beats Atlanta in 5 games; this is a much more even series than it appears at first glance. The Braves, though 5th best in quality wins, have only played the 28th-hardest schedule. This is somewhat damning evidence until you see that Arizona scored the most quality wins - but against the 29th-hardest schedule. Our Power Rankings show Atlanta in 5th place in the NL, based in part on analysis of previous wins and losses against an easy schedule. But the Playoff Ratings focus much more on how close the games were and on how well the Braves hung with good teams. This stat believes Atlanta is much better than advertised, and that the team will take Arizona all the way to 5 games.

Oakland takes down the White Sox for the exact same reason: two similar teams by record and schedule are separated by how they scored in critical games. Oakland did measurably better in this respect (2nd in baseball v. Chicago's still respectable 7th-best), and thus we award the series win to the A's.

Finally, the least-evenly-matched series pits the Red Sox against the Angels, which Boston takes handily. Los Angeles has won an impressive amount of games, but by unimpressive amounts against a much easier schedule than Boston. This is an easy prediction: Boston in 4 if the Angels get lucky.

League Championships
Baseball Playoffs Now projects two probably controversial winners in the League Championship Series: Oakland beats Boston and the Chicago Cubs overtake Arizona. These are both very closely-matched series and in the case of Oakland, a slight home field advantage is enough to swing stats in the A's favor.

Oakland: 8th in quality wins, 21st hardest schedule, 5th in win-loss analysis (infinite strength-of-schedule calculation), 2nd in score analysis (infinite runs-scored v. -allowed against schedule calculation)
Boston: 4th in quality wins, 15th hardest schedule, 1st in win-loss analysis, 3rd in score analysis

As you can see, Boston holds every trump card except one (Oakland stays closer in runs to better teams), and Oakland has home field advantage. This series is going at least 6 games, and may come down to a fan stealing a fly out or something similarly foolish. We give the edge to Oakland based on pure numbers, but Boston's playoff experience may tell otherwise.

As for the National League:

Chicago Cubs: 3rd in quality wins, 23rd hardest schedule, 6th in win-loss analysis, 1st in score analysis
Arizona: 1st in quality wins, 29th hardest schedule, 2nd in win-loss analysis, 6th in score analysis

Here's why Chicago wins: the statistical average of their quality wins against schedule ranks 3rd in baseball and Arizona ranks 4th, and the Cubs are the MLB's absolute best at scoring well against good teams (no matter if they win or lose) and Arizona is 6th. Despite Arizona's home field advantage, the Cubs advance to the World Series.

World Series
Determining a world champion is, interestingly enough, much easier than picking the league champions. Chicago is simply better than Oakland where it counts:

Oakland: 8th in quality wins, 21st hardest schedule, 5th in win-loss analysis, 2nd in score analysis, 3rd best run ratio
Chicago Cubs: 3rd in quality wins, 23rd hardest schedule, 6th in win-loss analysis, 1st in score analysis, best run ratio

On the surface, the A's and Cubs are similar enough - but when Chicago can smell their first World Series win in a long, long time and they have the talent to succeed, we'll happily give them a sweep.

Oakland Falls to Arizona in '08 World Series

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 4 seed LAA in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 4 seed LAD in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 2 seed CHC in 7 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed ARI over no. 1 seed OAK in 6 games. ***

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - OAK
3 - TAM
4 - NYY
5 - LAA
6 - CHW
7 - TOR
8 - CLE
9 - MIN
10 - BAL
11 - SEA
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - TEX

NL Power Ratings
1 - ARI
2 - CHC
3 - LAD
4 - STL
5 - NYM
6 - ATL
7 - HOU
8 - PHI
9 - MIL
10 - FLA
11 - CIN
12 - WAS
13 - COL
14 - PIT
15 - SFO
16 - SDG

You Don't Want to Play the AL East Right Now

Baseball Playoffs Now releases today a new ranking called Teams to Watch, in essence a compendium of selections from our other statistics that show insight into a team's positive trends.

Qualifications to be a Team to Watch:
a. They cannot have a record in the top 25% in baseball, nor be #1 in their division. Everyone is already looking at those teams with great expectations.
b. They must have scored more runs than allowed.
c. They must have a high underrated value (i.e. have a better record-against-schedule than their current record).
d. Their playoff rating - stats which specifically deal with how teams win in the playoffs - must be in the top half in baseball.
e. They cannot be mired in a bad losing streak.

These are pretty restrictive qualifications, so it makes sense that only five teams can pass muster today:
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. New York Yankees
5. Houston Astros

Atlanta has it all: a mediocre record compared with an efficient team on something of a hot streak. The Braves will move up at least one spot in the NL East, since Florida is showing all the bad signs of a team about to fall, and Atlanta will possibly climb to the top. Their scoring is so good that our playoff predictor places them in the division lead by September.

Tampa, Toronto, and New York (#9, #16, and #10 overall respectively) make up the thundering pack taking up the middle of the AL East. Despite hovering around .500, Baseball Playoffs Now would normally predict climbs for all of these teams - but since they are in the same division, one of them will probably take the fall. Our thoughts: Tampa Bay. The Yanks have excellent quality wins (7th in baseball in record v. schedule), and Toronto can score big (10th in the majors in runs-scored v. -allowed). That leaves the Rays as our AL East dropout - plus Baltimore, #2 on our list of who NOT to pick in the upcoming weeks (first place goes to Florida, the worst team over .500 in the bigs).

Last, the Astros completed a sweep of Milwaukee at home and move on to the wandering Nationals tonight. They're fifth on the watch list because of their scoring power against a really tough NL Central. Baseball Playoffs Now projects that Houston can win 85 games this season, more than the Brewers and enough to get into 3rd place in the division.

Bottom line: Atlanta, New York Yanks, and Toronto are moving up, Tampa Bay and Houston are holding their own, and Florida and Baltimore are about to start losing badly.

The Rockies' Hard Climb

Underrated Teams
1 - COL
2 - ATL
3 - CHW

Overrated Teams
30 - LAA
29 - KAN
28 - FLA

After an Ascension Day hiatus (Christi Himmelfahrt is a national holiday here in Germany), Baseball Playoffs Now is back in action with another edition of baseball's most underrated and overrated teams. All three overrated teams have been covered in recent entries, so we'll focus instead on three under-appreciated squads. This rating derives from each team's Baseball Playoffs Now power rating contrasted with their current record.

3. The White Sox, currently second in the AL Central, are ninth in quality wins against an average strength of schedule. Chicago's margin of victory is in the top 25% of the majors - yet they are still a game under .500. Trailing Minnesota by only 1.5 games, the White Sox have the potential to take the division lead - and quickly. Why? The Twins are the not-so-proud owners of Baseball Playoffs Now's "Worst in First" title, awarded to the lowest-rated team in first place in their division. In fact, BPN projects the White Sox to enter the postseason as a no. 3 seed, having won 90 games to Minnesota's 80.

2. By wins and losses only, the Atlanta Braves (at .500) rank only 17th in the majors. Looking at quality wins and analyses of runs scored and allowed, Atlanta earns 5th in baseball, albeit against the 4th-easiest schedule. By almost all accounts, the Braves are a completely average team - excepting their excellent margin of victory record, 3rd best in baseball. With a runs-scored to -allowed ratio of 1.345 to 1, third only to the power-hitting Diamondbacks and Cubs, we project Atlanta to run roughshod over the NL East, despite the fact that the Braves are currently in fourth place. While Atlanta is rated 6th in the National League (below the Mets), New York has pulled out too many close games to keep up the pace. Look for the Braves to take over.

1. Major League Baseball's most overrated team is the Colorado Rockies. Listing woozily at 12-19, the Rockies have a hard time preventing runs (0.796 runs scored for every 1 run allowed) and have to compete with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks for success in the West. Baseball Playoffs Now only projects Colorado to take 3rd in their division with 63 wins, so don't look for too many fireworks from this team (or a repeat of last season). But the Rockies are badly overrated, thanks to their poor record. Instead, look at their toughest schedule in baseball, an average ability to win close games, a sweep of #2 underrated Atlanta, and bright spots like a 13-5 victory at Arizona (#1-rated team in the big leagues). Even with a 12-19 record, the Rockies have nothing to be ashamed of. Don't be afraid to cheer on this underdog.

Arizona Sweeps World Series

Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 4 seed LAA in 3 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 3 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHC over no. 4 seed LAD in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed OAK over no. 2 seed BOS in 4 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed ARI over no. 2 seed CHC in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed ARI over no. 1 seed OAK in 4 games. ***

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - OAK
3 - TAM
4 - NYY
5 - CHW
6 - LAA
7 - TOR
8 - MIN
9 - CLE
10 - BAL
11 - DET
12 - SEA
13 - KAN
14 - TEX

NL Power Ratings
1 - ARI
2 - CHC
3 - LAD
4 - NYM
5 - STL
6 - ATL
7 - HOU
8 - MIL
9 - PHI
10 - FLA
11 - COL
12 - WAS
13 - PIT
14 - CIN
15 - SFO
16 - SDG