Chicago Cubs Win 103 Games in 2008

To predict the final record of all baseball teams, we use a modified Smyth/Patriot method to find the most probable number of wins in the remainder of the season based on previous runs scored - runs allowed ratios.

That is, the Milwaukee Brewers currently have a .471 win-loss record over 51 games (or 31.48% of the season). Their history-adjusted run ratio is 0.887 runs scored for every 1 run allowed (223.578 runs scored to 251.930 runs allowed), to which Smyth/Patriot returns an expected future win/loss record of .444.

51 prior games of .471 baseball plus 111 future games of .444 baseball equals a final record of .452, or 73 wins out of 162 ball games.

This is one of the few not completely homegrown statistics on Baseball Playoffs Now, and this site is indebted to Bill James and the later Smyth/Patriot adjustments for their work.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC - 103 - 59
2 - ARI - 98 - 64
3 - OAK - 95 - 67
4 - ATL - 95 - 67
5 - TAM - 94 - 68
6 - PHI - 94 - 68
7 - CHW - 94 - 68
8 - BOS - 93 - 69
9 - STL - 91 - 71
10 - FLA - 90 - 72
11 - LAA - 88 - 74
12 - TOR - 86 - 76
13 - LAD - 85 - 77
14 - HOU - 85 - 77
15 - CLE - 81 - 81
16 - NYY - 79 - 83
17 - NYM - 79 - 83
18 - BAL - 79 - 83
19 - TEX - 78 - 84
20 - MIN - 77 - 85
21 - PIT - 75 - 87
22 - DET - 73 - 89
23 - MIL - 73 - 89
24 - CIN - 72 - 90
25 - WAS - 67 - 95
26 - SFO - 63 - 99
27 - KAN - 63 - 99
28 - COL - 63 - 99
29 - SEA - 59 - 103
30 - SDG - 58 - 104