Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Nationals Most Underrated, Diamondbacks Most Overrated

Today's edition of Baseball's Most Underrated and Overrated Teams features Washington and Arizona, respectively. This stat derives from a team's overall rating percentile generated with our custom algorithms versus that team's win-loss percentile on the field. This is not a "directional" statistic; that is, the most underrated team is not expected to begin winning immediately and the most overrated team will probably not start losing. We have the Watch List for that sort of thing. These numbers are simply for additional insight into win-loss percentages.

The Washington Nationals are last in the NL East with a record of 20-26 and score only .838 runs for every 1 allowed. But Washington has played the toughest schedule in Major League Baseball, and over the last 10 games, the Nats have won major series against Pittsburgh and the Mets in New York. This team is only 6 below .500 against baseball's best: Atlanta (#6 overall), Philly (#17), St. Louis (#18), Florida (#14), Mets (#4), Cubs (#1), Pittsburgh (#9), Houston (#12), and Baltimore (#16). The Nationals haven't played any teams in the bottom third of Major League Baseball and have still managed to pull out 20 wins so far.

Similarly, the Arizona Diamondbacks are first in the NL West with a record of 28-16, scoring 1.286 runs for every 1 run allowed. Arizona really is playing spectacularly, but consider that their competition is the 2nd-easiest schedule in the bigs and that their first-place standing is a triumph over the worst division by far. The Diamondbacks' wins come from series against Cincinnati (#19), Colorado (#27), Dodgers (#15), San Francisco (#30), San Diego (#29), Houston (#12), Mets (#4), Philly (#17), Cubs (#1), and Detroit (#26). Even worse, their record against the three teams in the top half of baseball - Houston, Mets, and Cubs - is only 3-6.

Important series coming up for the Nats: Arizona (#5) and Pittsburgh (#9)
Important series coming up for the D'backs: Florida (#14) and Atlanta (#6)

1 comment:

  1. Found your site through Baseball on line. I've added you to my links list. Maybe if we all link up we can help each other get some hits.