Only a short break. Baseball Playoffs Now is moving states, so baseball news will have to take a breather.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Angels Take Home WS Win
Milwaukee drops a game from the National League Championship Series because of their losses in Chicago this week.
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed BOS in 5 games.
No. 2 seed TAM over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed TAM in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 6 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***
Playoff Pace: July 30, 2008
This post is a measure of who's projected to win all divisions plus the wild cards, and how far behind the rest of the teams are. For instance, Tampa Bay is in the AL East lead with 91 wins, but Boston is just a couple percentage points behind and also gains 91 wins. Any team over .500 in this measurement has a shot at the division title or wild card, but as the season draws nearer to the end, start focusing on teams in the .800s or .900s.
AL Division Championship Pace
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (97 - 65)
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (89 - 73)
4 - BOS - 0.9743 (91 - 71)
5 - MIN - 0.8728 (88 - 74)
6 - NYY - 0.6567 (87 - 75)
7 - DET - 0.5363 (83 - 79)
8 - OAK - 0.4896 (82 - 80)
9 - TEX - 0.4604 (81 - 81)
10 - TOR - 0.2915 (83 - 79)
11 - CLE - 0.0549 (77 - 85)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (79 - 83)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
AL Wild Card Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - MIN - 0.8758 (88 - 74)
3 - NYY - 0.8402 (87 - 75)
4 - DET - 0.6842 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6565 (83 - 79)
6 - OAK - 0.6222 (82 - 80)
7 - TEX - 0.5850 (81 - 81)
8 - BAL - 0.5099 (79 - 83)
9 - CLE - 0.4102 (77 - 85)
10 - KAN - 0.3790 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - NYM - 1.0000 (85 - 77)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (82 - 80)
4 - PHI - 0.9925 (85 - 77)
5 - LAD - 0.9731 (81 - 81)
6 - FLA - 0.8441 (81 - 81)
7 - ATL - 0.7288 (78 - 84)
8 - MIL - 0.6630 (86 - 76)
9 - COL - 0.6449 (76 - 86)
10 - STL - 0.5664 (85 - 77)
11 - SFO - 0.2926 (70 - 92)
12 - HOU - 0.0863 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0.0528 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
NL Wild Card Pace
1 - MIL - 1.0000 (86 - 76)
2 - PHI - 0.9548 (85 - 77)
3 - STL - 0.9438 (85 - 77)
4 - LAD - 0.8184 (81 - 81)
5 - FLA - 0.8120 (81 - 81)
6 - ATL - 0.7011 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0.6643 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0.6448 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0.6140 (76 - 86)
10 - COL - 0.6122 (76 - 86)
11 - SFO - 0.3908 (70 - 92)
12 - SDG - 0.2070 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
Toughest Schedule So Far: Royals and Rays
Major League Baseball Strength of Schedule Rankings
1 - KAN - Opponents #3 in wins and #1 in runs scored/allowed
2 - TAM - Opponents #2 in wins and #2 in runs scored/allowed
3 - BAL - Opponents #1 in wins and #3 in runs scored/allowed
4 - BOS - Opponents #4 in wins and #6 in runs scored/allowed
5 - TOR - Opponents #5 in wins and #5 in runs scored/allowed
6 - MIN - Opponents #9 in wins and #4 in runs scored/allowed
7 - CHW - Opponents #8 in wins and #7 in runs scored/allowed
8 - CLE - Opponents #6 in wins and #11 in runs scored/allowed
9 - OAK - Opponents #7 in wins and #14 in runs scored/allowed
10 - SEA - Opponents #10 in wins and #9 in runs scored/allowed
11 - NYY - Opponents #11 in wins and #10 in runs scored/allowed
12 - DET - Opponents #12 in wins and #12 in runs scored/allowed
13 - TEX - Opponents #13 in wins and #13 in runs scored/allowed
14 - LAA - Opponents #14 in wins and #8 in runs scored/allowed
15 - HOU - Opponents #15 in wins and #16 in runs scored/allowed
16 - CIN - Opponents #18 in wins and #15 in runs scored/allowed
17 - PIT - Opponents #16 in wins and #18 in runs scored/allowed
18 - COL - Opponents #20 in wins and #19 in runs scored/allowed
19 - WAS - Opponents #17 in wins and #20 in runs scored/allowed
20 - MIL - Opponents #19 in wins and #21 in runs scored/allowed
21 - SFO - Opponents #21 in wins and #17 in runs scored/allowed
22 - SDG - Opponents #27 in wins and #22 in runs scored/allowed
23 - PHI - Opponents #24 in wins and #23 in runs scored/allowed
24 - ATL - Opponents #23 in wins and #26 in runs scored/allowed
25 - LAD - Opponents #26 in wins and #24 in runs scored/allowed
26 - STL - Opponents #22 in wins and #29 in runs scored/allowed
27 - NYM - Opponents #28 in wins and #25 in runs scored/allowed
28 - CHC - Opponents #25 in wins and #30 in runs scored/allowed
29 - ARI - Opponents #29 in wins and #27 in runs scored/allowed
30 - FLA - Opponents #30 in wins and #28 in runs scored/allowed
Four Teams Projected To Win 90+ Games; Another Can't Break 60 Wins
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - LAA : 97 - 65
2 - CHC : 92 - 70
3 - TAM : 91 - 71
4 - BOS : 91 - 71
5 - CHW : 89 - 73
6 - MIN : 88 - 74
7 - NYY : 87 - 75
8 - MIL : 86 - 76
9 - NYM : 85 - 77
10 - PHI : 85 - 77
11 - STL : 85 - 77
12 - DET : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 83 - 79
14 - OAK : 82 - 80
15 - ARI : 82 - 80
16 - LAD : 81 - 81
17 - FLA : 81 - 81
18 - TEX : 81 - 81
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - ATL : 78 - 84
21 - HOU : 77 - 85
22 - CLE : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 76 - 86
26 - COL : 76 - 86
27 - SFO : 70 - 92
28 - SEA : 68 - 94
29 - SDG : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103
AL East Has Won 56% Of Non-Division Games; NL West Only 42.5%
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.5%
2 - NL - 37.5%
Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.591 ( 149-103 , equals 95.8 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.409 ( 103-149 , equals 66.2 wins over one season)
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 70.4%
3 - AL-W - 60.9%
4 - NL-C - 56.1%
5 - NL-E - 23.1%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.562 ( 178-139 , equals 91.0 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.530 ( 197-175 , equals 85.8 wins over one season)
3 - AL-C - 0.506 ( 158-154 , equals 82.0 wins over one season)
4 - AL-W - 0.505 ( 150-147 , equals 81.8 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.476 ( 156-172 , equals 77.0 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.425 ( 147-199 , equals 68.8 wins over one season)
Interleague Play Records by Division
1 - AL-C - 0.644
2 - AL-E - 0.578
3 - AL-W - 0.542
4 - NL-C - 0.452
5 - NL-E - 0.436
6 - NL-W - 0.333
Baseball Rankings Now: July 30, 2008 -- Detroit Climbs To #8 Overall
AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - MIN
6 - NYY
7 - DET
8 - TOR
9 - TEX
10 - OAK
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - ARI
7 - LAD
8 - FLA
9 - ATL
10 - HOU
11 - COL
12 - PIT
13 - CIN
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Overall Power Rankings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - MIN
6 - CHC
7 - NYY
8 - DET
9 - TOR
10 - MIL
11 - NYM
12 - PHI
13 - TEX
14 - OAK
15 - STL
16 - BAL
17 - ARI
18 - LAD
19 - FLA
20 - CLE
21 - KAN
22 - ATL
23 - HOU
24 - COL
25 - PIT
26 - CIN
27 - SEA
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Angels Can Win 96 Games...Astros Most Balanced Ballclub
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - LAA : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 92 - 70
3 - CHC : 91 - 71
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - NYY : 88 - 74
7 - MIN : 87 - 75
8 - MIL : 87 - 75
9 - NYM : 85 - 77
10 - PHI : 85 - 77
11 - STL : 84 - 78
12 - TOR : 83 - 79
13 - DET : 83 - 79
14 - OAK : 83 - 79
15 - FLA : 82 - 80
16 - ARI : 82 - 80
17 - LAD : 81 - 81
18 - TEX : 81 - 81
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - ATL : 79 - 83
21 - CLE : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - COL : 76 - 86
25 - KAN : 76 - 86
26 - PIT : 76 - 86
27 - SFO : 70 - 92
28 - SEA : 68 - 94
29 - SDG : 66 - 96
30 - WAS : 60 - 102
Balance Rankings
(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)
1 - HOU
2 - LAD
3 - MIL - too dependent on own division
4 - TEX - not good enough at home
5 - FLA
6 - WAS
7 - OAK
8 - SDG - too dependent on own division
9 - TOR - too dependent on own division
10 - NYY
11 - SEA - not good enough at home
12 - LAA - not good enough at home
13 - PHI - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
14 - KAN - not good enough at home
15 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
16 - ARI - too dependent on own division
17 - NYM
18 - CIN
19 - BAL - not good enough in own division
20 - PIT - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
21 - CLE - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
22 - DET - not good enough in own division
23 - SFO - not good enough at home
24 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
25 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - MIN - too dependent on own division
28 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
29 - COL - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
Cubs Now Take Angels To 6 Games In World Series, Can't Close Out LA
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed BOS in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 7 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: July 29, 2008 -- Angels On Top Again
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.6%
2 - NL - 37.4%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - MIN
6 - NYY
7 - CHC
8 - TOR
9 - MIL
10 - DET
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 67.4%
3 - AL-W - 59.7%
4 - NL-C - 52.7%
5 - NL-E - 23.8%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - MIN
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - DET
9 - OAK
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - LAD
9 - ATL
10 - COL
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - PIT
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Monday, July 28, 2008
Los Angeles Angels Win World Series Over Tired Cubs
Movements of note since the last playoff prediction a few weeks ago:
- Boston falls to AL seed no. 2 with 93 wins. The Angels climb two spots and take the top seed with 96 wins.
- The White Sox win 92 games yet fall to seed no. 3, but Tampa retains the wild card with 91 wins.
- The Phillies fall completely out of the playoffs and cede the second NL seed to the New York Mets, who win 86 games this year.
- Milwaukee's 88 wins kick out St. Louis (at 84 wins) for the National League wild card -- and the Brewers make it a close I-94 NL Championship series as well.
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 4 seed MIL over no. 2 seed NYM in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed LAA over no. 2 seed BOS in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed MIL in 7 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed LAA over no. 1 seed CHC in 5 games. ***
Complete American League Dominance
Even the NL Central's 52.4% out-of-division winning percentage can't save them from the fact that they only won 45.2% of their interleague games.
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.6%
2 - NL - 37.4%
Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.591 ( 149-103 , equals 95.8 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.409 ( 103-149 , equals 66.2 wins over one season)
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 64.7%
3 - AL-W - 58.7%
4 - NL-C - 49.0%
5 - NL-E - 23.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.565 ( 178-137 , equals 91.5 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.524 ( 193-175 , equals 85.0 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.505 ( 148-145 , equals 81.8 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.503 ( 156-154 , equals 81.5 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.479 ( 156-170 , equals 77.5 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.427 ( 147-197 , equals 69.2 wins over one season)
Interleague Play Records by Division
1 - AL-C - 0.644
2 - AL-E - 0.578
3 - AL-W - 0.542
4 - NL-C - 0.452
5 - NL-E - 0.436
6 - NL-W - 0.333
Baseball Rankings Now: July 28, 2008 -- Angels Best in Baseball
AL Power Ratings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - NYY
6 - MIN
7 - DET
8 - TOR
9 - OAK
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - MIL
3 - NYM
4 - PHI
5 - STL
6 - ARI
7 - LAD
8 - FLA
9 - ATL
10 - COL
11 - CIN
12 - HOU
13 - PIT
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Overall Power Rankings
1 - LAA
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - TAM
5 - NYY
6 - MIN
7 - CHC
8 - MIL
9 - DET
10 - TOR
11 - OAK
12 - NYM
13 - TEX
14 - PHI
15 - STL
16 - BAL
17 - ARI
18 - LAD
19 - FLA
20 - CLE
21 - ATL
22 - KAN
23 - COL
24 - CIN
25 - HOU
26 - PIT
27 - SEA
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS
Back on Track
Baseball Playoffs Now returns from the Tuscan sun with a long-awaited database and stats update. I caught up on baseball news upon returning home...
Poor National League - an All-Star loss plus sinking further in the interleague battle. No wonder my computer is virtually laughing at any NL team in the rankings.
Here's how I did on the July predictions (using rankings as of July 23, the date of my return, even though this post is only being written five days afterward):
- "Toronto overtakes Baltimore, but can't get any higher than 4th in the AL East." -- Perfect. The Jays are 1.5 games up on the Orioles, but stuck in 4th place 6 games behind the Yankees.
- "Kansas City, tied for last in the Central, earns it by losing at a faster rate than Cleveland." -- Almost, but not quite. Kansas City remains tied for last, but ranked 0.001 above the Indians in win-loss percentage.
- "Philadelphia and Washington anchor the top and bottom of the NL East, but when we return, the central three teams will rank #2 Atlanta, #3 Florida, #4 Mets." -- Ouch! I was way off on the NL East, which ended up seeing the Mets power to first, leading Philly, Florida, Atlanta, and Washington, respectively.
- "Pittsburgh falls behind Houston for last place in the NL Central." -- Only a game off, but Houston still earns last place, a dramatic fall from a month or so ago (2nd in the Central by far).
- "The NL West remains boring and noncompetitive. Arizona will still be in first place and will have a sub-.500 record." -- Spot on. The Diamondbacks' 50-51 record is good enough for first place in the West. No other division has more than 2 teams with fewer than 50 wins. The West has four.
- "Milwaukee leapfrogs St. Louis for the #2 position in the Central and consequently is in the wild card lead. Bratwurst around the nation quiver in fear as Brewer Nation assembles to tailgate. Troubled pitcher Eric Gagne returns to Miller Park -- but only as a Sausage Race runner. Randall Simon attends a game to give Gagne the cathartic thumpin' Milwaukee fans need." -- Tongue-in-cheek but pitch perfect. The Brewers start hitting crazy good after the All-Star break and add CC Sabathia to create a scary pitching corps (at least for the NL). Eric Gagne does indeed return to the team and wins 3 of 5 games. Brewers' late-summer-collapse watch begins in earnest.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Baseball Playoffs Now Hiatus
Baseball Playoffs Now is taking a few weeks' break for a much-needed vacation. We'll be bumming around Europe without the computer power necessary to update you with the best power rankings and playoff predictions. Enjoy the All-Star Game and break, as well as Independence Day and the dog days of summer.
Three cheers for the NL in the All-Star Game -- they need all the help they can get in the World Series.
Finally, as long as Baseball Playoffs Now is in the prediction business, here are the next three or four weeks:
- Toronto overtakes Baltimore, but can't get any higher than 4th in the AL East.
- Kansas City, tied for last in the Central, earns it by losing at a faster rate than Cleveland.
- Philadelphia and Washington anchor the top and bottom of the NL East, but when we return, the central three teams will rank #2 Atlanta, #3 Florida, #4 Mets.
- Pittsburgh falls behind Houston for last place in the NL Central.
- The NL West remains boring and noncompetitive. Arizona will still be in first place and will have a sub-.500 record.
- Milwaukee leapfrogs St. Louis for the #2 position in the Central and consequently is in the wild card lead. Bratwurst around the nation quiver in fear as Brewer Nation assembles to tailgate. Troubled pitcher Eric Gagne returns to Miller Park -- but only as a Sausage Race runner. Randall Simon attends a game to give Gagne the cathartic thumpin' Milwaukee fans need.
Tampa Bay Rays Are World Champions!
Boston and Chicago are knocked off their high perches as wild card Tampa Bay storms in for 7-game victories against the Red Sox, then against the Cubs in the World Series. The Rays are only a half-game back in the toughest division, and have played the toughest schedule in baseball. Tampa certainly earned their championship.
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 6 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***
Home Field Advantage & The Five-Run Rule
Home teams are doing famously well this year. I can't pinpoint a cause like some intrepid accusers, but I can give the numbers:
Home teams: 672-511 (.568)
Away teams: 511-672 (.432)
Home team runs on average: 4.68
Away team runs on average: 4.37
The home team therefore has a 13.6% better chance at winning the ballgame, using 0.31 more runs on average to do so. We've already cited Cy Morong's Historical Trends in Home Field Advantage as a good source of HFA history, and it bears noticing that the average home field advantage is around 10%. Given baseball's long seasons, adding 3.6% more to HFA is equivalent to almost 6 more wins. That's the difference between playing in October and going home.
In other news, teams who have scored 5 runs or more in a ballgame this season have gone 465-90 (.838). If you play in one of the 47% of games in which one team scores at least 5 runs, it better be you. If it's not, you have less than a 20% chance of winning the game.
Tampa Closest To Wild Card By Far, Might Take AL East Anyway
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 96 - 66
3 - TAM : 95 - 67
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - LAA : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - NYY : 85 - 77
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - MIN : 85 - 77
11 - MIL : 84 - 78
12 - ATL : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 82 - 80
14 - BAL : 82 - 80
15 - DET : 81 - 81
16 - TEX : 81 - 81
17 - ARI : 80 - 82
18 - FLA : 80 - 82
19 - NYM : 80 - 82
20 - CLE : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 77 - 85
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 73 - 89
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 65 - 97
29 - SEA : 64 - 98
30 - WAS : 60 - 102
AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
1 - LAA - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0,9565 (89 - 73)
5 - TAM - 0,9366 (95 - 67)
6 - TEX - 0,6317 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0,5740 (85 - 77)
8 - DET - 0,3037 (81 - 81)
9 - NYY - 0,2619 (85 - 77)
10 - CLE - 0,2258 (80 - 82)
11 - TOR - 0,0077 (82 - 80)
12 - BAL - 0,0000 (82 - 80)
12 - KAN - 0,0000 (77 - 85)
12 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)
AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1,0000 (95 - 67)
2 - OAK - 0,8154 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0,6890 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0,6636 (85 - 77)
5 - TOR - 0,5719 (82 - 80)
6 - BAL - 0,5683 (82 - 80)
7 - DET - 0,5434 (81 - 81)
8 - TEX - 0,5385 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0,5088 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0,4083 (77 - 85)
11 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)
NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - PHI - 1,0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1,0000 (80 - 82)
4 - ATL - 0,8525 (83 - 79)
5 - LAD - 0,8275 (78 - 84)
6 - FLA - 0,7531 (80 - 82)
7 - NYM - 0,7455 (80 - 82)
8 - STL - 0,5239 (85 - 77)
9 - SFO - 0,4964 (73 - 89)
10 - MIL - 0,4563 (84 - 78)
11 - COL - 0,1780 (68 - 94)
12 - HOU - 0,1607 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0,1558 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0,0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0,0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)
NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1,0000 (85 - 77)
2 - MIL - 0,9372 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0,9103 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0,8041 (80 - 82)
5 - NYM - 0,7960 (80 - 82)
6 - LAD - 0,7000 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0,6623 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0,6577 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0,5129 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0,4909 (73 - 89)
11 - COL - 0,2898 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0,1774 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)
Baseball Rankings Now: June 27, 2008 -- Nine Of Top Ten Ballclubs American League
Overall Power Rankings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - MIN
8 - NYY
9 - BAL
10 - STL
11 - PHI
12 - MIL
13 - TOR
14 - TEX
15 - DET
16 - CLE
17 - ATL
18 - FLA
19 - KAN
20 - ARI
21 - NYM
22 - HOU
23 - PIT
24 - LAD
25 - CIN
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS
AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - MIN
7 - NYY
8 - BAL
9 - TOR
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - STL
3 - PHI
4 - MIL
5 - ATL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - HOU
10 - PIT
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
The Official Domination By The American League Has Begun
For the first time this season, the AL is not only incredibly strong in power rankings (63% to the NL's 37%), but also holds the top three divisions in Major League Baseball. The National League Central can't even claim that its #2 out-of-division record is a good enough reason for it to be ranked higher than the fourth-best division, since it can't even come close to .500 in interleague play. No AL division is fewer than 4 games above .500 in interleague games, and no NL division is fewer than 8 games below .500. The NL West has lost a full two-thirds of its 69 matches against the AL.
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.0%
2 - NL - 37.0%
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 62.2%
3 - AL-W - 60.9%
4 - NL-C - 59.9%
5 - NL-E - 31.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.579 ( 140-102 , equals 93.7 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.536 ( 149-129 , equals 86.8 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.507 ( 114-111 , equals 82.1 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.498 ( 121-122 , equals 80.7 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.474 ( 117-130 , equals 76.7 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.406 ( 102-149 , equals 65.8 wins over one season)
Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.596 ( 124-84 , equals 96.6 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.404 ( 84-124 , equals 65.4 wins over one season)
by division
1 - AL-C - 0.640
2 - AL-E - 0.603
3 - AL-W - 0.533
4 - NL-C - 0.446
5 - NL-E - 0.431
6 - NL-W - 0.333
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Athletics Chasing Angels -- And Have 19-Rank Balance Advantage
Balance Rankings
(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)
1 - HOU
2 - KAN
3 - LAD
4 - TOR
5 - NYM
6 - OAK - not good enough in own division
7 - CLE
8 - WAS - not good enough at home
9 - MIN
10 - SEA - not good enough at home
11 - NYY - not good enough in own division
12 - CIN - not good enough in own division
13 - STL - not good enough at home
14 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
15 - FLA - too dependent on own division
16 - PHI - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
17 - COL - too dependent on homestands
18 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
19 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
20 - SDG - too dependent on own division
21 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
22 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
23 - BAL - not good enough in own division
24 - DET - not good enough in own division
25 - LAA - not good enough at home
26 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
27 - ARI - too dependent on own division
28 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
29 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
30 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
Phillies Win Divisional Series Over Cards, But Wild Card Rays Take LA For A Ride
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***
AL East Holds Top Two Power Ranks
Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - MIN
9 - PHI
10 - STL
11 - BAL
12 - MIL
13 - TEX
14 - TOR
15 - DET
16 - FLA
17 - ATL
18 - CLE
19 - ARI
20 - KAN
21 - NYM
22 - PIT
23 - HOU
24 - LAD
25 - CIN
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - HOU
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
NL Hurting -- That's All There Is To Say
MLB League Rankings (including strength of schedule)
1 - AL - 61.6%
2 - NL - 38.4%
Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.583 ( 116-83 , equals 94.4 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.417 ( 83-116 , equals 67.6 wins over one season)
MLB Division Rankings (including strength of schedule)
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 63.4%
3 - AL-W - 61.4%
4 - AL-C - 58.4%
5 - NL-E - 33.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.573 ( 137-102 , equals 92.9 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.540 ( 148-126 , equals 87.5 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.507 ( 113-110 , equals 82.1 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.490 ( 117-122 , equals 79.3 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.478 ( 117-128 , equals 77.4 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.411 ( 102-146 , equals 66.6 wins over one season)
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Final Record Predictions and Playoff Pace: June 25, 2008
The American League is pretty linear - that is, the teams' propensity to enter the postseason roughly corresponds to their record - but the National League is not even close. The Dodgers are projected to win 77 games but are #6 in propensity to win a divisional championship because they play in the West, whereas St. Louis will win 87 games but is only #8 on the divisional championship list because of their difficult Central division. The Cardinals, however, can gloat about their top position in the wild card race, where the Dodgers are only #7.
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 98 - 64
2 - BOS : 95 - 67
3 - TAM : 92 - 70
4 - LAA : 92 - 70
5 - CHW : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 90 - 72
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - STL : 87 - 75
9 - MIL : 84 - 78
10 - NYY : 84 - 78
11 - MIN : 83 - 79
12 - ATL : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - TOR : 81 - 81
15 - ARI : 81 - 81
16 - BAL : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 81 - 81
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - CLE : 80 - 82
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 76 - 86
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 72 - 90
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 67 - 95
29 - SEA : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103
AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (95 - 67)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
4 - OAK - 0.9285 (90 - 72)
5 - TAM - 0.7595 (92 - 70)
6 - TEX - 0.5941 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0.4652 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.2712 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.2447 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.2084 (84 - 78)
11 - TOR - 0.0226 (81 - 81)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (81 - 81)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)
AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
2 - OAK - 0.9251 (90 - 72)
3 - NYY - 0.7093 (84 - 78)
4 - MIN - 0.6766 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6112 (81 - 81)
6 - BAL - 0.5993 (81 - 81)
7 - TEX - 0.5920 (81 - 81)
8 - DET - 0.5656 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.5504 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4104 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)
NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8416 (82 - 80)
5 - FLA - 0.8321 (82 - 80)
6 - LAD - 0.7322 (77 - 85)
7 - NYM - 0.7211 (79 - 83)
8 - STL - 0.5365 (87 - 75)
9 - MIL - 0.4461 (84 - 78)
10 - SFO - 0.3823 (72 - 90)
11 - PIT - 0.1872 (78 - 84)
12 - HOU - 0.1270 (76 - 86)
13 - COL - 0.1123 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (67 - 95)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
2 - MIL - 0.9197 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0.8510 (82 - 80)
4 - FLA - 0.8414 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.7292 (79 - 83)
6 - PIT - 0.6896 (78 - 84)
7 - LAD - 0.6674 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6361 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5233 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0.4863 (72 - 90)
11 - COL - 0.3465 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0.2884 (67 - 95)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
Wild Cards Boot Out Angels and Phillies
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 25, 2008
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.0%
2 - NL - 38.0%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - MIN
8 - STL
9 - NYY
10 - BAL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 67.7%
3 - AL-W - 65.9%
4 - AL-C - 58.8%
5 - NL-E - 30.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - MIN
7 - NYY
8 - BAL
9 - TOR
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - STL
3 - MIL
4 - PHI
5 - FLA
6 - ARI
7 - ATL
8 - PIT
9 - HOU
10 - NYM
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Today's Rising and Falling Teams
Ballclub Trend Mapping
Clear Playoff Material
1 - TAM
2 - OAK
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - CHC
A Blast to Watch
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - DET
9 - LAA
10 - BAL
Quickening Our Interest
11 - CLE
12 - KAN
13 - TEX
14 - MIL
15 - TOR
On the Skids -- Yet Strong Core
16 - PHI
17 - ATL
18 - NYM
19 - STL
20 - FLA
Pre-All Star Break Blues
21 - LAD
22 - CIN
23 - ARI
24 - COL
25 - PIT
Not a Chance, Methinks
26 - SEA
27 - HOU
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS
Chicago Cubs Regain World Series Championship Over Would-Be Repeat Red Sox
Also of note, the Angels climb into the no. 2 seed and play in the American League Championship Series.
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 2 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed LAA in 6 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 24, 2008 -- NL Now 4 Of Top 11 Teams
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 60.7%
2 - NL - 39.3%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - PHI
9 - MIN
10 - STL
Bonus Ballclub
11 - MIL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 67.0%
3 - AL-W - 62.6%
4 - AL-C - 58.9%
5 - NL-E - 36.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - LAD
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Monday, June 23, 2008
Playoff Pace: June 23, 2008
Oakland in 2nd place both in division and wild card race ... St. Louis has to pray it gets the wild card since it's far behind in the Central ... Milwaukee 9th in division championship race but 3rd in wild card race (it's possible!) ... Yankees 10th in division championship race but 3rd in wild card race as well ...
AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0.9728 (89 - 73)
5 - TEX - 0.7131 (81 - 81)
6 - TAM - 0.6861 (91 - 71)
7 - MIN - 0.5220 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.4091 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0.3803 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.3211 (85 - 77)
11 - BAL - 0.0255 (80 - 82)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (74 - 88)
12 - TOR - 0.0000 (80 - 82)
AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - OAK - 0.9358 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0.8134 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0.7282 (83 - 79)
5 - TEX - 0.6859 (81 - 81)
6 - DET - 0.6694 (81 - 81)
7 - BAL - 0.6622 (80 - 82)
8 - CLE - 0.6543 (80 - 82)
9 - TOR - 0.6492 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4562 (74 - 88)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
NL Division Championship Pace
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (88 - 74)
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (101 - 61)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8392 (83 - 79)
5 - FLA - 0.8062 (83 - 79)
6 - LAD - 0.7979 (78 - 84)
7 - NYM - 0.7604 (81 - 81)
8 - STL - 0.4203 (86 - 76)
9 - MIL - 0.3162 (83 - 79)
10 - SFO - 0.2616 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.2030 (70 - 92)
12 - PIT - 0.0702 (77 - 85)
13 - HOU - 0.0257 (76 - 86)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (75 - 87)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (60 - 102)
NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (86 - 76)
2 - ATL - 0.9046 (83 - 79)
3 - MIL - 0.8962 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0.8690 (83 - 79)
5 - NYM - 0.8196 (81 - 81)
6 - LAD - 0.7108 (78 - 84)
7 - PIT - 0.6513 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6070 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5814 (75 - 87)
10 - SFO - 0.4267 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.3957 (70 - 92)
12 - SDG - 0.2881 (68 - 94)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (60 - 102)
Angels Take Red Sox For 5-Game Ride In Divisional Series; Fall Short
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
The Angels finally make it into the Divisional Series, beating out Oakland by a game for the West title. Yes, we know that Los Angeles's record has shown their strength for quite a while now, but the Athletics only this past weekend fell below the level of the Angels. Even though the A's series win against Florida was impressive, the Angels were even more so as they swept Philly in Pennsylvania.
By pure run differential, Oakland is by far superior at 1.226 runs scored per 1 run allowed to Los Angeles at 1.043 runs scored. The basic Pythagorean final record prediction places the A's at 93 wins (current record of .547 plus .592 over the remaining games) and the Angels at 91 wins (.605 now plus .519 the rest of the way), giving Oakland the AL West championship. However - and this is a big however - Oakland's play against strength of schedule and just plain win-loss record does not bear out the prediction that they can win 93 games in 2008. Baseball Playoffs Now employs a "gravitate towards the mean" filter to punish teams who have excellent run differentials but mediocre win-loss records, and to reward teams who have poor differentials but mediocre records.
Adding each team's propensity to actually win games - and not just score runs - Oakland loses 4 wins and Los Angeles loses 1 win, placing the A's at 89 wins and the Angels at 90. Hence, Los Angeles wins the division and the right to lose to Boston in the first round of the playoffs.
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***
Who's Afraid Of The National League?
The American League's dominance is borne out in wins and losses as well as statistical analysis. Below you'll find the AL beating up on the NL (approximately 60%-40% in overall ratings [including strength of schedule] and exactly 57.5%-42.5% on the field of play).
Four divisions also prove their overall ratings with the same ranking in pure wins and losses: the AL East, NL Central, AL West, and NL West are ranked #1, #2, #3, and #6, respectively, in both Baseball Playoffs Now's analysis and win-loss rankings. And even though the NL East is marginally better than the AL Central on the field, the Central gets a big boost in the rankings because much of their schedule is made up of other strong American League clubs. The NL East, on the other hand, has no such claim.
Finally, I'd like to point out exactly how far apart 57.5% (the current AL interleague record) is from its NL counterpart. Were the AL a single ballclub, it would be on pace to win over 93 games this season. The National League doesn't clear 69.
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 60.1%
2 - NL - 39.9%
Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0,575 (equals 93,1 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0,425 (equals 68,9 wins over one season)
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 64.9%
3 - AL-W - 58.4%
4 - AL-C - 57.0%
5 - NL-E - 41.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0,570
2 - NL-C - 0,540
3 - AL-W - 0,502
4 - NL-E - 0,487
5 - AL-C - 0,482
6 - NL-W - 0,415
Baseball Rankings Now: June 23, 2008 -- AL Still Strong, But NL Pushes Another Team Into Top Ten
A thrilling series win in Boston propels St. Louis into the Baseball Playoffs Now top ten. It's not quite enough to knock Boston out of first place, but now only three-hundredths of a percentage point separate the Red Sox from the hungry Cubs:
Overall Rating
1 - BOS - 0.9497
2 - CHC - 0.9494
3 - TAM - 0.8962
Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - CHC
3 - TAM
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - PHI
9 - MIN
10 - STL
11 - BAL
12 - MIL
13 - TEX
14 - TOR
15 - DET
16 - FLA
17 - ATL
18 - CLE
19 - NYM
20 - ARI
21 - PIT
22 - LAD
23 - KAN
24 - HOU
25 - CIN
26 - COL
27 - SFO
28 - SDG
29 - SEA
30 - WAS
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - NYM
8 - ARI
9 - PIT
10 - LAD
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Friday, June 20, 2008
Orioles, Tigers Making Their Moves
Ballclub Trend Mapping
Just Try And Stop Us
1 - BOS
2 - CHW
3 - NYY
4 - OAK
5 - TAM
Eyes On The Prize
6 - DET
7 - CHC
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - PHI
Flashes Of Brilliance
11 - MIN
12 - KAN
13 - TOR
14 - TEX
15 - ATL
Maybe...But We'd Rather Not
16 - MIL
17 - LAA
18 - NYM
19 - FLA
20 - COL
Stumbling
21 - LAD
22 - STL
23 - ARI
24 - PIT
25 - SEA
Don't Expect Any Miracles
26 - CIN
27 - SFO
28 - SDG
29 - HOU
30 - WAS
Daily Playoff Prediction: June 20, 2008 -- Boston Wins Another One
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 20, 2008
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.5%
2 - NL - 36.5%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - CHC
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - LAA
8 - PHI
9 - BAL
10 - TOR
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 49.1%
3 - AL-W - 45.1%
4 - NL-C - 41.6%
5 - NL-E - 30.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - NYY
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - TOR
9 - MIN
10 - DET
11 - TEX
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - ATL
5 - STL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - LAD
10 - PIT
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Thursday, June 19, 2008
New Playoff Pace Rankings -- Current Odds For October
To determine division championship pace, we project the final records of every team in baseball, then figure out who's in front and how far behind every other team is. The same is true for the wild card predictions, just with the projected division leaders removed.
These numbers do not mean that Boston, Chicago WS, and Oakland have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Rather, the 1.0000 ratings mean that they hold the strongest projected records (and therefore best predicted chance) and everyone else is measured relative to them.
AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (93 - 69)
1 - OAK - 1.0000 (89 - 73)
4 - LAA - 0.9029 (86 - 76)
5 - TEX - 0.6967 (80 - 82)
6 - TAM - 0.5921 (91 - 71)
7 - DET - 0.4128 (80 - 82)
8 - CLE - 0.3897 (80 - 82)
9 - MIN - 0.3766 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.3163 (86 - 76)
11 - TOR - 0.0275 (81 - 81)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (58 - 104)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (72 - 90)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (80 - 82)
AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - LAA - 0.8522 (86 - 76)
3 - NYY - 0.8473 (86 - 76)
4 - TOR - 0.6873 (81 - 81)
5 - DET - 0.6760 (80 - 82)
6 - BAL - 0.6721 (80 - 82)
7 - CLE - 0.6609 (80 - 82)
8 - TEX - 0.6576 (80 - 82)
9 - MIN - 0.6523 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4056 (72 - 90)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (58 - 104)
NL Division Championship Pace
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (83 - 79)
4 - ATL - 0.7696 (84 - 78)
5 - FLA - 0.7400 (83 - 79)
6 - LAD - 0.7047 (79 - 83)
7 - NYM - 0.6523 (81 - 81)
8 - STL - 0.4673 (85 - 77)
9 - MIL - 0.3341 (82 - 80)
10 - SFO - 0.1759 (71 - 91)
11 - PIT - 0.1084 (77 - 85)
12 - COL - 0.0754 (69 - 93)
13 - HOU - 0.0297 (75 - 87)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (74 - 88)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (62 - 100)
NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (85 - 77)
2 - ATL - 0.9516 (84 - 78)
3 - FLA - 0.9149 (83 - 79)
4 - MIL - 0.8596 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.8066 (81 - 81)
6 - LAD - 0.7102 (79 - 83)
7 - PIT - 0.6218 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.5388 (75 - 87)
9 - CIN - 0.5075 (74 - 88)
10 - SFO - 0.3631 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.2971 (69 - 93)
12 - SDG - 0.2476 (68 - 94)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (62 - 100)
Major League Baseball 2008 Final Four: Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.
*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***
Cubs Holding Second-Most Unbalanced Record
Balance Rankings
(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)
The Cubs sit at #29 (too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division). Here's the breakdown:
Chicago Cubs overall record: 45 - 27 (.625)
Home: 29 - 8 (.784)
Away: 16 - 19 (.457)
Within NL Central: 18 - 15 (.545)
Outside NL Central: 27 - 12 (.692)
A perfectly balanced ballclub would have all four sub-records (home, away, within division, outside division) equal to its overall record. The Cubs have a road record far different from their overall record plus an in-division record somewhat removed from the overall record. The average of these differences is greater than the averages of 28 other baseball teams, meaning that the strength of the Cubs has been subject to location much more than other teams.
1 - HOU
2 - LAD
3 - TOR
4 - SEA
5 - CLE
6 - PHI - not good enough at home
7 - FLA - too dependent on own division
8 - NYM
9 - OAK - not good enough in own division
10 - KAN - not good enough at home
11 - WAS - not good enough at home
12 - NYY - not good enough in own division
13 - STL - not good enough at home
14 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
15 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
16 - CIN - not good enough in own division
17 - COL - not good enough in own division
18 - SDG - too dependent on homestands
19 - MIN - too dependent on own division
20 - BAL - not good enough in own division
21 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
22 - TAM - too dependent on homestands
23 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
24 - LAA - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
25 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
26 - DET - not good enough in own division
27 - ARI - too dependent on own division
28 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
29 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
NL Central Retakes Position As Second-Best Division
NL Central yesterday: Cincinnati lost to the Dodgers, Milwaukee beat Toronto, St. Louis fell to Kansas City, Houston gave up an extra-inning battle to Baltimore, the Cubs lost both the game and Zambrano to Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh couldn't keep up with the White Sox.
All in all, it was a pretty bad day for the NL Central. Yet they retook division place #2, since yesterday's second-place AL West also hit bottom:
A Mets 10th-inning home run beat the Angels, Florida trampled Seattle, Arizona absolutely blew away Oakland by 10 runs, and Texas didn't win at home against Atlanta.
As much as the league rankings show an American League dominance, it's nice to know that the NL is giving licks as well as taking them.
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.3%
2 - NL - 37.7%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - CHC
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - LAA
8 - PHI
9 - TOR
10 - BAL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 49.4%
3 - AL-C - 48.5%
4 - AL-W - 46.7%
5 - NL-E - 39.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - NYY
6 - LAA
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - MIN
10 - DET
11 - TEX
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - MIL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - LAD
11 - CIN
12 - HOU
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Cubs, BoSox Finish Season With 98 Wins
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - BOS : 98 - 64
2 - CHC : 98 - 64
3 - CHW : 93 - 69
4 - TAM : 91 - 71
5 - PHI : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - LAA : 86 - 76
8 - NYY : 86 - 76
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - ATL : 84 - 78
11 - FLA : 83 - 79
12 - ARI : 83 - 79
13 - MIL : 82 - 80
14 - NYM : 81 - 81
15 - TOR : 81 - 81
16 - DET : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 80 - 82
18 - CLE : 80 - 82
19 - TEX : 80 - 82
20 - MIN : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 79 - 83
22 - PIT : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 75 - 87
24 - CIN : 74 - 88
25 - KAN : 72 - 90
26 - SFO : 71 - 91
27 - COL : 69 - 93
28 - SDG : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 62 - 100
30 - SEA : 58 - 104
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Boston Jealous of Gainesville, Takes 2008 WS
If the University of Florida can get a basketball-football-basketball trifecta, then why shouldn't Boston do the same in baseball-basketball-baseball?
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***
American League Sucker-Punches NL, Grabs 64% Of Power Ratings
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.6%
2 - NL - 36.4%
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-W - 56.3%
3 - NL-C - 55.8%
4 - AL-C - 46.8%
5 - NL-E - 39.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Ouch. The AL won 12 of 14 interleague games last night and severely damaged the senior circuit's rankings both in league measures and in the division rankings. The AL West pushed to #2, embarrassing the NL Central who only a few weeks ago was the undisputed leader of divisions. The NL East also felt the blow, reeling towards division rank #5 -- and the East was ranked #2 just twenty days past.
The latest interleague play records are:
AL - 59-42 (.584)
NL - 42-59 (.416) - equivalent to a team winning only 67 games in a regular season
Out-of-division standings:
1. AL East - 118-86 (.578)
2. NL Central - 126-105 (.545)
3. AL West - 98-97 (.503)
4. NL East - 104-106 (.495)
5. AL Central - 94-110 (.461)
6. NL West - 88-124 (.415)
As per the past week or two, the NL Central holds onto the no. 2 division standings in pure wins and losses and the NL East retains the no. 4 position. The reason that the Baseball Playoffs Now rankings stated at the top of this post switch the standings between #2 and #3, and #4 and #5, is that there is a very distinct difference in overall power rankings between AL teams and NL teams. The American League has simply done very well in interleague play, and the division rankings are a secondhand reflection of this record. By wins and losses alone, the NL is a small percentage behind the AL. But by strength of schedule and run differential, the AL increases its lead by a substantial amount.
Baseball Rankings Now: June 18, 2008 -- Crazy Good AL Holds 80% Of Top Ten
Only two NL teams are currently in the top 10. Even Baltimore and Texas made it ahead of St. Louis: Baltimore is over .500 in the toughest division and Texas is at .500 in the second-toughest division. Today Cleveland is also ranked above St. Louis, but the numerical ratings are only 14-hundredths of one percent different and I think the system is just reacting to the AL's dominance by ranking the Indians' schedule that much more difficult. The Cardinals are pretty clearly superior to Cleveland.
Even though Atlanta has been in the top five teams in the National League since the beginning of the week with a series win against the Angels in California, we'll see how long that lasts. The Braves have a 27th-best ranking over the last 10 games (only three wins) and are on track to win only 84 games, according to Baseball Playoffs Now's final record prediction algorithms.
Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - CHC (NL)
6 - LAA
7 - PHI (NL)
8 - NYY
9 - TOR
10 - BAL
=======
11 - TEX
12 - CLE
13 - STL
14 - DET
15 - MIN
16 - ATL
17 - MIL
18 - FLA
19 - PIT
20 - NYM
=======
21 - KAN
22 - ARI
23 - CIN
24 - LAD
25 - HOU
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - CLE
11 - DET
12 - MIN
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - MIL
6 - FLA
7 - PIT
8 - NYM
9 - ARI
10 - CIN
11 - LAD
12 - HOU
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Detroit Tigers #9 In Baseball Upward Trends
Ballclub Trend Mapping
Building on the last post, here are the full trend results. Most trends correspond to current standings, but there are a couple surprises.
Warp Speed
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - BOS
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
Impressive
6 - TAM
7 - NYY
8 - CLE
9 - DET
10 - TOR
Stable and Improving
11 - BAL
12 - ATL
13 - STL
14 - PIT
15 - LAA
Unremarkable
16 - TEX
17 - FLA
18 - MIL
19 - NYM
20 - ARI
Warning Signs
21 - CIN
22 - KAN
23 - MIN
24 - SFO
25 - SDG
Choking to Death
26 - COL
27 - LAD
28 - HOU
29 - WAS
30 - SEA
Yankees, Indians Teams To Watch -- Brewers Slipping
Teams on the Rise
1 NYY
2 CLE
Teams on the Fall
1 MIL
The Teams to Watch ranking is something of an über-metric within Baseball Playoffs Now. First we strip out all teams in 1st, 5th, and 6th places in the division. There is no reason that a 1st place team should be a team on the rise, since everyone already knows they are pretty good. Likewise, there is no reason that a 5th or 6th place team should be a team on the fall, since it's common knowledge that club is having a rough season.
For the same reasons, we strip out the top 8 teams by win-loss percentage for teams on the rise, and the bottom 8 teams by WL% for teams on the fall.
There are four important indicators in Teams to Watch that signal a team's direction: run differential, overall ranking, overall ranking versus win-loss percentage, and trends over the past 10 games. The first two make sure of a team's quality, the third - also known as overrated/underrated teams - is sort of a hidden measure of how a team is doing against public perception, and the fourth keeps this formula current.
Teams on the Rise must have above-average numbers in every single one of those measures, and Teams on the Fall must have below-average numbers in all of those indicators. Only one to five teams qualify for each label at any one time, and we present the top three to you.
The Milwaukee Brewers are 12th in win-loss percentage with a 36-33 record (.522), earning third place in the second-toughest division in baseball. Last month the Brew Crew stunk up the joint and plummeted to last in the division, but a recent surge put them right back in the running. After an interleague fight with old AL Central foe Minnesota, however, Milwaukee is beginning to need life support. Their vital signs:
- 0.957 runs scored for every 1 allowed
- #15 overall ranking, with a rating of 49.6% (relative to the Cubs at 100% and the Mariners at 0%)
- an overrated team, with their 12th-place win-loss percentage too good for their 15th-place ranking
- below-average record over the last 10 games (losing a series at home to the Twins and only going 3-3 against Colorado and Houston, two teams in fifth place)
On the other hand, the Yankees are 10th in win-loss percentage (37-33, .529) and 3rd in the AL East, with promising indicators: 1.055 runs scored for every 1 allowed, #8 overall (combined with a 10th-place win-loss percentage to make them an underrated team), and excellent 7-3 last 10 games (second-best in baseball).
Likewise, the Indians are 20th in WL% (33-37, .471) and 3rd in the AL Central. They score 1.076 runs for every 1 allowed, are #13 overall (much better than their win-loss percentage ranking), and are 8th in baseball over the last 10 games (6-4, with 2-2 away and 4-2 home).
It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Indians are in the top half of the strength of schedule rankings. Since the overall ranking indicator takes into account an infinite strength of schedule, the quality of opponents is a somewhat-large factor in the Teams to Watch measure.
Rays, Jays Fight Toughest Schedules In Baseball
Strength of schedule is calculated by adding wins and losses of each team's opponents, with allowances for home field advantage (currently 14.32%) and history (recent games weighted a bit more than earlier games). Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Seattle, and Cincinnati are around the bottom of their divisions, so it's easy to see why they have tough schedules. But other teams are not so obvious. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the AL East yet has played the toughest schedule in baseball. Not only is the East is the top division by far, but the Rays have played a brutal out-of-division schedule including the Angels, White Sox, and Cardinals. Schedule is an important reason that the Rays are #4 overall and the Blue Jays are #9 overall, even though they are second and last in their division, respectively.
Major League Baseball Strength of Schedule Rankings
1 - TAM
2 - TOR
3 - BAL
4 - SEA
5 - KAN
6 - MIN
7 - CIN
8 - OAK
9 - BOS
10 - NYY
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - PIT
14 - LAA
15 - CHW
16 - TEX
17 - HOU
18 - WAS
19 - MIL
20 - COL
21 - ATL
22 - NYM
23 - LAD
24 - SFO
25 - FLA
26 - SDG
27 - PHI
28 - CHC
29 - STL
30 - ARI
Chicago Cubs Take Back World Series Win From Boston
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 17, 2008 -- Yankees Making Power Grab
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 56.7%
2 - NL - 43.3%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - PHI
4 - TAM
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - LAA
8 - NYY
9 - TOR
10 - STL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 68.6%
3 - NL-E - 53.7%
4 - AL-W - 44.3%
5 - AL-C - 37.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - FLA
6 - MIL
7 - PIT
8 - ARI
9 - NYM
10 - CIN
11 - HOU
12 - LAD
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS
Monday, June 16, 2008
Cleveland Has Most Balanced Record
Why not make this a 7-post day?
Balance Rankings
(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)
1 - CLE
2 - HOU
3 - NYM
4 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
5 - FLA
6 - BAL - not good enough in own division
7 - PHI
8 - LAD
9 - STL - not good enough at home
10 - SDG - too dependent on homestands
11 - COL - not good enough in own division
12 - SEA - too dependent on own division
13 - OAK - not good enough in own division
14 - NYY - not good enough at home
15 - TAM - too dependent on homestands
16 - TOR - not good enough in own division
17 - WAS - not good enough at home
18 - KAN - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
19 - CIN - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
20 - MIL - too dependent on own division
21 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
22 - MIN - too dependent on own division
23 - LAA - not good enough at home
24 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
25 - DET - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
26 - ARI - too dependent on own division
27 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
28 - CHW - too dependent on own division
29 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
Yankees on the Rise, Mets on the Fall
Here's another quick stats buffet for you. The Yankees are on the rise - finally - with the 2nd-best record in the past 10 games, and the Mets are falling with the 26th-best record over the last 10. In addition, the Yankees earned a positive run ratio (1.055 runs scored for every 1 run allowed) and the Mets, though they also have a positive run ratio at 1.011 : 1, fell barely under the average in that metric.
Underrated Teams
1 TOR
2 CHW
3 OAK
Overrated Teams
30 ARI
29 STL
28 FLA
Teams on the Rise
1 NYY
2 CLE
Teams on the Fall
1 NYM
2 FLA
3 MIL
Best Away Clubs
1 LAA
2 STL
3 PHI
Worst Away Clubs
30 ATL
29 SEA
28 COL
Best Home Clubs
1 BOS
2 CHC
3 TAM
Worst Home Clubs
30 SFO
29 SEA
28 WAS
New Final Record Prediction Method
Baseball Playoffs Now is all about good power ratings, and how those ratings can predict future performance. We've been using the Pythagorean method to predict future records (runs scored / (runs scored + runs allowed)) and it's been working well. But as a Phillies blog pointed out, a team's win pace has "absolutely nothing" to do with RS/RA. The win pace is simply the team's current winning percentage. Using runs scored and runs allowed is a good way to differentiate teams with similar records, and historically, real-world team records approach their Pythagorean records.
But using pure run differentials is no longer our method, since it ignores a full half of the power ratings. Our ratings are equal parts of wins/losses against infinite strength of schedule and runs scored/allowed against infinite strength of schedule. Therefore, our Final Record Predictions will reflect both of them.
The records below began as Pythagorean records, and you can see the pure Pyth predictions at today's earlier post. After seeing where run differentials place a team, however, we add or subtract games based on a team's simple propensity to win or lose games (ignoring all runs). So Boston stays at 99 wins since it ranks first in baseball with its pure win/loss record against its schedule. But Philadelphia falls 6 games, from 99 wins to 93 wins, because of its 68% W/L rating compared to Boston.
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - BOS : 99 - 63
3 - PHI : 93 - 69
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - STL : 88 - 74
8 - LAA : 87 - 75
9 - NYY : 84 - 78
10 - ARI : 83 - 79
11 - ATL : 83 - 79
12 - TOR : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 80 - 82
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - PIT : 79 - 83
21 - MIN : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - HOU : 76 - 86
25 - SFO : 72 - 90
26 - SDG : 71 - 91
27 - KAN : 69 - 93
28 - COL : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 65 - 97
30 - SEA : 60 - 102
Can Chicago Win 105 Games?
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 105 - 57
2 - PHI : 99 - 63
3 - BOS : 99 - 63
4 - CHW : 94 - 68
5 - OAK : 93 - 69
6 - STL : 90 - 72
7 - TAM : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 88 - 74
9 - NYY : 85 - 77
10 - ARI : 85 - 77
11 - ATL : 85 - 77
12 - FLA : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 83 - 79
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 80 - 82
17 - TEX : 79 - 83
18 - BAL : 79 - 83
19 - DET : 78 - 84
20 - PIT : 78 - 84
21 - MIN : 76 - 86
22 - LAD : 76 - 86
23 - HOU : 74 - 88
24 - CIN : 73 - 89
25 - SFO : 71 - 91
26 - SDG : 70 - 92
27 - COL : 66 - 96
28 - KAN : 66 - 96
29 - WAS : 64 - 98
30 - SEA : 60 - 102
Boston Red Sox Repeat As World Champions; Cubs Fans Burn City and Massacre Goats
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 16, 2008 -- Cubs Finally Fall From #1 Overall
Baseball-Wide Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - CHC
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - PHI
7 - LAA
8 - NYY
9 - TOR
10 - BAL
11 - STL
12 - CLE
13 - TEX
14 - DET
15 - MIN
16 - ATL
17 - MIL
18 - FLA
19 - PIT
20 - ARI
21 - CIN
22 - NYM
23 - HOU
24 - KAN
25 - LAD
26 - SFO
27 - SDG
28 - COL
29 - SEA
30 - WAS
And for easier reference:
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - MIN
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - MIL
6 - FLA
7 - PIT
8 - ARI
9 - CIN
10 - NYM
11 - HOU
12 - LAD
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS
American League Smashes NL; Now Holds 60% Of Baseball Strength
This weekend's interleague ballgames gave us an excellent picture of how the National League stacks up against the junior circuit. Not only has the American League won approximately 60% of its games against the NL, but it also holds about 60% of the power ratings: a huge change from last week when the AL was at about 53% on both measures. What a difference an interleague weekend makes.
Note also the NL Central's percentage drop from 95% of the AL East's strength to only 64%, and the AL Central's climb to #4 in the division rankings. We now have much more parity between divisions.
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 60.9%
2 - NL - 39.1%
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 64.0%
3 - AL-W - 54.4%
4 - AL-C - 42.7%
5 - NL-E - 41.7%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
Friday, June 13, 2008
A's? Angels? Who Knows?
The Athletics have been the West champions for quite a while now in Baseball Playoffs Now. Their run differential and quality wins have far outstripped the current division leader Angels. But Oakland might not last much longer.
The latest AL Power Rankings have Los Angeles trailing Oakland by only one place:
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
Of even more ominous import, check out their computer model ratings (on a scale from 0.0000 to 1.0000):
OAK: 0.6666
LAA: 0.6659
and final record prediction:
OAK: 90 - 72
LAA: 89 - 73
I'll leave all demonic 666 implications aside, but the bottom line is that Los Angeles is on the brink of eclipsing Oakland in the computer models. Because the models take into account infinite strength of schedule, Los Angeles has taken a while to build up enough good opponents to rival Oakland, and Oakland has choked just enough on their schedule to allow the Angels to catch up. Today's game could throw the entire division championship prediction to Los Angeles.
The same thing happened to Atlanta over the past couple of weeks. A great run differential was smashed by the later-blooming Phillies and a sputtering Braves offense. No prediction lasts forever.
Large Rift Between Two Great Baseball Divisions And Mediocre Followers
I have been more and more surprised over the past few days to see how the Baseball Playoffs Now algorithms have been ranking divisions. Take a look at the current numbers:
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 95.9%
3 - AL-W - 37.4%
4 - NL-E - 29.5%
5 - AL-C - 9.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
The discrepancy between the #2 division and #3 division is frankly startling, and I set out to explore why the formulae think the AL East and NL Central should get all the glory.
Divisions are ranked by averaging the Power Ratings of all teams within the division on a couple different scales. First, let's look at the Power Ratings for some divisions:
AL East (#1 ranked division)
BAL : 0.5125
BOS : 0.8681
NYY : 0.4939
TAM : 0.8476
TOR : 0.6290
NL Central (#2 ranked division)
CHC : 0.9769
CIN : 0.4909
HOU : 0.5185
MIL : 0.6365
PIT : 0.5180
STL : 0.6829
AL West (#3 ranked division)
LAA : 0.6659
OAK : 0.6666
SEA : 0.1034
TEX : 0.4611
NL East (#4 ranked division)
ATL : 0.4621
FLA : 0.4130
NYM : 0.3601
PHI : 0.7772
WAS : 0.0396
Power Ratings are equal measures of a team's pure wins and losses against infinite strength of schedule and a team's runs scored and runs allowed against infinite strength of schedule. They're very accurate and excellent tools for rating the past performance of teams.
But the division ranking system also explores the divisions' records when playing out-of-division games. Here are the quality wins of all divisions when playing outside their division (measured in percentage, where 1.000 is the best and 0.000 is the worst):
AL-E : 0.899
AL-C : 0.000
AL-W : 0.265
NL-E : 0.459
NL-C : 1.000
NL-W : 0.146
The NL Central holds a tenuous lead on this statistic, going 118 - 89 (.570) outside the Central. The AL East owns a record of 104 - 79 (.568), but Baseball Playoffs Now factors in additional numbers to create "quality wins:" home field advantage, run differential, and more weight to recent games. The NL Central widens its lead by doing well in these categories.
Moving down a rung on the out-of-division records, the NL East's mediocre WL% of 91 - 95 (.489) is not enough to hold off the AL West at 89 - 88 (.503), yet quality wins again make the difference. The NL East has been playing well as of late outside the division, and doing so more often outside their home ballparks with larger run differentials. But that's not enough to save the East. Quality wins outside the division only counts for about a third of a division's rating, and the NL East suffers from low Power Ratings in the other two-thirds.
For as many missteps as the AL West has made (Oakland has recently lost series to Toronto and the New York Yankees, Texas fell to Tampa and Cleveland, and Seattle has choked on everything), the NL East kept pace. Washington is the worst team in baseball and the Mets are #22.
Even as the #3 ranked division, the AL West rates only 37.4% on a scale from the AL East (top) to the NL West (bottom). Both the AL West and the NL East have a lot of work to do if they hope to compete with the top two divisions.
White Sox Lose AL Championship to Boston; Cubs Still Win It All
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 7 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 13, 2008 -- Cubs, BoSox, Rays Top Charts
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.4%
2 - NL - 46.6%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - PHI
6 - STL
7 - OAK
8 - LAA
9 - MIL
10 - TOR
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 95.9%
3 - AL-W - 37.4%
4 - NL-E - 29.5%
5 - AL-C - 9.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - TOR
7 - BAL
8 - NYY
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - SEA
14 - KAN
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - ARI
6 - HOU
7 - PIT
8 - CIN
9 - ATL
10 - LAD
11 - FLA
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Cubs Win World Series in 7; Playoff Prediction Methods Explained
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
I'd like to shed some light on how Baseball Playoffs Now predicts the postseason. Our final record predictions generate division placements and the wild card team, based on a history-weighted pythagorean method. Once we know the playoff teams, we turn to a completely different statistic to figure out who are the better teams.
Our Power Rankings are compiled using both pure wins/losses and runs scored/allowed in two separate algorithms, both rated against an infinite strength of schedule matrix. But run differential is the best single predictor of upcoming performance, so Baseball Playoffs Now weights that factor much more heavily when creating a special stat called Playoff Ratings. The only use for this statistic is picking winners in our playoff predictions; we don't publish it as Power Rankings because it is skewed too far away from wins and losses.
Using Eric Seidman's Home Field Advantage article to determine HFA, we give a (small) home field advantage to the proper teams' ratings. The winner of the series is therefore simply the team with the higher rating.
Mathematics, backed up by Seidman's data, also returns the probabilities that a series will extend to 3, 4, or 5 games (in the case of the Divisional Series) or 4, 5, 6, or 7 games (in the case of the League Championship and World Series):
The math: (coin flip for winner [or use historical data, but there is only a very small difference] ^ number of games in series) x number of possible outcomes in which the series lasts that long
Divisional Series:
3 games = 0.5^3 x 2 = 25%
4 games = 0.5^4 x 4 = 25%
5 games = 0.5^5 x 16 = 50%
League/World Series:
4 games = 0.5^4 x 2 = 12.5%
5 games = 0.5^5 x 8 = 25%
6 games = 0.5^6 x 20 = 31.25%
7 games = 0.5^7 x 40 = 31.25%
Using these numbers, we use some fuzzy math to generate the least-scientific prediction of this entire site: series lengths. We figure out the greatest difference in Playoff Rating between teams in the playoffs, then figure out about where the two teams in each series lie in that range. Plugging that percentage into the probabilities above, we can approximate series lengths.
And voilà !
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 7 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 12, 2008 -- LA Angels Climbing
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.4%
2 - NL - 46.6%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - BOS
4 - CHW
5 - PHI
6 - STL
7 - OAK
8 - LAA
9 - TOR
10 - MIL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 96.3%
3 - AL-W - 42.6%
4 - NL-E - 33.7%
5 - AL-C - 8.4%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - TOR
7 - BAL
8 - TEX
9 - NYY
10 - CLE
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - SEA
14 - KAN
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - HOU
6 - PIT
7 - ARI
8 - LAD
9 - ATL
10 - CIN
11 - FLA
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Phillies Drop Back Below 100 Wins, White Sox Catching Up
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - PHI : 99 - 63
3 - CHW : 98 - 64
4 - BOS : 95 - 67
5 - STL : 92 - 70
6 - TAM : 90 - 72
7 - OAK : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 89 - 73
9 - ARI : 88 - 74
10 - TOR : 86 - 76
11 - ATL : 86 - 76
12 - FLA : 84 - 78
13 - LAD : 83 - 79
14 - NYY : 81 - 81
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - CLE : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 80 - 82
18 - HOU : 80 - 82
19 - TEX : 79 - 83
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 77 - 85
22 - CIN : 76 - 86
23 - MIN : 74 - 88
24 - SFO : 74 - 88
25 - DET : 73 - 89
26 - SDG : 66 - 96
27 - COL : 64 - 98
28 - KAN : 63 - 99
29 - WAS : 61 - 101
30 - SEA : 61 - 101
Chicago Teams Continue World Series Domination
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 11, 2008 -- AL East, NL Central Best Divisions By Far
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.2%
2 - NL - 46.8%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - PHI
6 - OAK
7 - TOR
8 - STL
9 - LAA
10 - MIL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 89.3%
3 - NL-E - 33.7%
4 - AL-W - 27.0%
5 - AL-C - 9.3%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - NYY
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - HOU
6 - ARI
7 - CIN
8 - PIT
9 - ATL
10 - LAD
11 - FLA
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Canada, Ohio Today's Most Underrated Teams
Underrated Teams (Baseball Playoffs Now rating v. win-loss record)
1 TOR
2 CIN
3 CLE
Overrated Teams
30 LAA
29 FLA
28 STL
Teams on the Rise
1 CLE
Teams on the Fall
1 MIN
2 FLA
3 TEX
Better Away
1 SFO
2 WAS
3 LAA
Better at Home
30 BOS
29 ATL
28 MIL
Balance Rankings - Cards, Twins Worst
Balance Rankings
(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)
1 - HOU
2 - TAM
3 - KAN
4 - OAK
5 - PIT
6 - SEA
7 - TOR
8 - CLE - too dependent on own division
9 - LAD - too dependent on own division
10 - PHI
11 - BAL - not good enough in own division
12 - SDG
13 - ARI - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
14 - LAA - not good enough at home
15 - NYY
16 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
17 - COL - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
18 - NYM - not good enough in own division
19 - CIN - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
20 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
21 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
22 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
23 - WAS - not good enough at home
24 - FLA - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
25 - SFO - not good enough at home
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
28 - DET - not good enough in own division
29 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
30 - MIN - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
All-Chicago World Series Taken To 6 Games
Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction
American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.
American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.
National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.
*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***
Baseball Rankings Now: June 10, 2008 -- Rays #1 in AL
MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.0%
2 - NL - 47.0%
Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - PHI
6 - OAK
7 - TOR
8 - MIL
9 - LAA
10 - STL
MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 88.4%
3 - NL-E - 40.1%
4 - AL-W - 23.6%
5 - AL-C - 11.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%
AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - CLE
9 - NYY
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA
NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - STL
5 - CIN
6 - PIT
7 - ATL
8 - HOU
9 - ARI
10 - LAD
11 - NYM
12 - FLA
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS
Monday, June 9, 2008
Phillies Move Into 100-Win Club
MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - PHI : 100 - 62
3 - CHW : 98 - 64
4 - BOS : 97 - 65
5 - OAK : 91 - 71
6 - STL : 91 - 71
7 - TAM : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 89 - 73
9 - ARI : 88 - 74
10 - ATL : 88 - 74
11 - TOR : 86 - 76
12 - FLA : 85 - 77
13 - MIL : 82 - 80
14 - LAD : 81 - 81
15 - NYY : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 79 - 83
18 - TEX : 79 - 83
19 - HOU : 78 - 84
20 - CLE : 78 - 84
21 - PIT : 76 - 86
22 - CIN : 76 - 86
23 - MIN : 75 - 87
24 - SFO : 74 - 88
25 - DET : 73 - 89
26 - SDG : 67 - 95
27 - COL : 63 - 99
28 - KAN : 62 - 100
29 - WAS : 60 - 102
30 - SEA : 60 - 102
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