New Final Record Prediction Method

Baseball Playoffs Now is all about good power ratings, and how those ratings can predict future performance. We've been using the Pythagorean method to predict future records (runs scored / (runs scored + runs allowed)) and it's been working well. But as a Phillies blog pointed out, a team's win pace has "absolutely nothing" to do with RS/RA. The win pace is simply the team's current winning percentage. Using runs scored and runs allowed is a good way to differentiate teams with similar records, and historically, real-world team records approach their Pythagorean records.

But using pure run differentials is no longer our method, since it ignores a full half of the power ratings. Our ratings are equal parts of wins/losses against infinite strength of schedule and runs scored/allowed against infinite strength of schedule. Therefore, our Final Record Predictions will reflect both of them.

The records below began as Pythagorean records, and you can see the pure Pyth predictions at today's earlier post. After seeing where run differentials place a team, however, we add or subtract games based on a team's simple propensity to win or lose games (ignoring all runs). So Boston stays at 99 wins since it ranks first in baseball with its pure win/loss record against its schedule. But Philadelphia falls 6 games, from 99 wins to 93 wins, because of its 68% W/L rating compared to Boston.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - BOS : 99 - 63
3 - PHI : 93 - 69
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - STL : 88 - 74
8 - LAA : 87 - 75
9 - NYY : 84 - 78
10 - ARI : 83 - 79
11 - ATL : 83 - 79
12 - TOR : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 80 - 82
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - PIT : 79 - 83
21 - MIN : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - HOU : 76 - 86
25 - SFO : 72 - 90
26 - SDG : 71 - 91
27 - KAN : 69 - 93
28 - COL : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 65 - 97
30 - SEA : 60 - 102