Baseball Playoffs Now Hiatus

Baseball Playoffs Now is taking a few weeks' break for a much-needed vacation. We'll be bumming around Europe without the computer power necessary to update you with the best power rankings and playoff predictions. Enjoy the All-Star Game and break, as well as Independence Day and the dog days of summer.

Three cheers for the NL in the All-Star Game -- they need all the help they can get in the World Series.

Finally, as long as Baseball Playoffs Now is in the prediction business, here are the next three or four weeks:

1. Toronto overtakes Baltimore, but can't get any higher than 4th in the AL East.
2. Kansas City, tied for last in the Central, earns it by losing at a faster rate than Cleveland.
3. Philadelphia and Washington anchor the top and bottom of the NL East, but when we return, the central three teams will rank #2 Atlanta, #3 Florida, #4 Mets.
4. Pittsburgh falls behind Houston for last place in the NL Central.
5. The NL West remains boring and noncompetitive. Arizona will still be in first place and will have a sub-.500 record.
6. Milwaukee leapfrogs St. Louis for the #2 position in the Central and consequently is in the wild card lead. Bratwurst around the nation quiver in fear as Brewer Nation assembles to tailgate. Troubled pitcher Eric Gagne returns to Miller Park -- but only as a Sausage Race runner. Randall Simon attends a game to give Gagne the cathartic thumpin' Milwaukee fans need.

We'll see how these predictions pan out when we return in the last week or so of July. In the meantime, Happy Birthday USA and for the love of all that is good on this Earth, National League, win some games!!!

Tampa Bay Rays Are World Champions!

Boston and Chicago are knocked off their high perches as wild card Tampa Bay storms in for 7-game victories against the Red Sox, then against the Cubs in the World Series. The Rays are only a half-game back in the toughest division, and have played the toughest schedule in baseball. Tampa certainly earned their championship.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 4 seed TAM over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Home Field Advantage & The Five-Run Rule

Home teams are doing famously well this year. I can't pinpoint a cause like some intrepid accusers, but I can give the numbers:

Home teams: 672-511 (.568)
Away teams: 511-672 (.432)
Home team runs on average: 4.68
Away team runs on average: 4.37

The home team therefore has a 13.6% better chance at winning the ballgame, using 0.31 more runs on average to do so. We've already cited Cy Morong's Historical Trends in Home Field Advantage as a good source of HFA history, and it bears noticing that the average home field advantage is around 10%. Given baseball's long seasons, adding 3.6% more to HFA is equivalent to almost 6 more wins. That's the difference between playing in October and going home.

In other news, teams who have scored 5 runs or more in a ballgame this season have gone 465-90 (.838). If you play in one of the 47% of games in which one team scores at least 5 runs, it better be you. If it's not, you have less than a 20% chance of winning the game.

Tampa Closest To Wild Card By Far, Might Take AL East Anyway

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 96 - 66
2 - BOS : 96 - 66
3 - TAM : 95 - 67
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - LAA : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - NYY : 85 - 77
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - MIN : 85 - 77
11 - MIL : 84 - 78
12 - ATL : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 82 - 80
14 - BAL : 82 - 80
15 - DET : 81 - 81
16 - TEX : 81 - 81
17 - ARI : 80 - 82
18 - FLA : 80 - 82
19 - NYM : 80 - 82
20 - CLE : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 78 - 84
22 - HOU : 77 - 85
23 - PIT : 77 - 85
24 - KAN : 77 - 85
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 73 - 89
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 65 - 97
29 - SEA : 64 - 98
30 - WAS : 60 - 102

---

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
1 - LAA - 1,0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0,9565 (89 - 73)
5 - TAM - 0,9366 (95 - 67)
6 - TEX - 0,6317 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0,5740 (85 - 77)
8 - DET - 0,3037 (81 - 81)
9 - NYY - 0,2619 (85 - 77)
10 - CLE - 0,2258 (80 - 82)
11 - TOR - 0,0077 (82 - 80)
12 - BAL - 0,0000 (82 - 80)
12 - KAN - 0,0000 (77 - 85)
12 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1,0000 (95 - 67)
2 - OAK - 0,8154 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0,6890 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0,6636 (85 - 77)
5 - TOR - 0,5719 (82 - 80)
6 - BAL - 0,5683 (82 - 80)
7 - DET - 0,5434 (81 - 81)
8 - TEX - 0,5385 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0,5088 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0,4083 (77 - 85)
11 - SEA - 0,0000 (64 - 98)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1,0000 (96 - 66)
1 - PHI - 1,0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1,0000 (80 - 82)
4 - ATL - 0,8525 (83 - 79)
5 - LAD - 0,8275 (78 - 84)
6 - FLA - 0,7531 (80 - 82)
7 - NYM - 0,7455 (80 - 82)
8 - STL - 0,5239 (85 - 77)
9 - SFO - 0,4964 (73 - 89)
10 - MIL - 0,4563 (84 - 78)
11 - COL - 0,1780 (68 - 94)
12 - HOU - 0,1607 (77 - 85)
13 - PIT - 0,1558 (77 - 85)
14 - CIN - 0,0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0,0000 (65 - 97)
14 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1,0000 (85 - 77)
2 - MIL - 0,9372 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0,9103 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0,8041 (80 - 82)
5 - NYM - 0,7960 (80 - 82)
6 - LAD - 0,7000 (78 - 84)
7 - HOU - 0,6623 (77 - 85)
8 - PIT - 0,6577 (77 - 85)
9 - CIN - 0,5129 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0,4909 (73 - 89)
11 - COL - 0,2898 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0,1774 (65 - 97)
13 - WAS - 0,0000 (60 - 102)

Baseball Rankings Now: June 27, 2008 -- Nine Of Top Ten Ballclubs American League

Overall Power Rankings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - MIN
8 - NYY
9 - BAL
10 - STL
11 - PHI
12 - MIL
13 - TOR
14 - TEX
15 - DET
16 - CLE
17 - ATL
18 - FLA
19 - KAN
20 - ARI
21 - NYM
22 - HOU
23 - PIT
24 - LAD
25 - CIN
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

---

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - MIN
7 - NYY
8 - BAL
9 - TOR
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - STL
3 - PHI
4 - MIL
5 - ATL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - HOU
10 - PIT
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

The Official Domination By The American League Has Begun

For the first time this season, the AL is not only incredibly strong in power rankings (63% to the NL's 37%), but also holds the top three divisions in Major League Baseball.  The National League Central can't even claim that its #2 out-of-division record is a good enough reason for it to be ranked higher than the fourth-best division, since it can't even come close to .500 in interleague play.  No AL division is fewer than 4 games above .500 in interleague games, and no NL division is fewer than 8 games below .500.  The NL West has lost a full two-thirds of its 69 matches against the AL.

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.0%
2 - NL - 37.0%

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 62.2%
3 - AL-W - 60.9%
4 - NL-C - 59.9%
5 - NL-E - 31.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.579 ( 140-102 , equals 93.7 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.536 ( 149-129 , equals 86.8 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.507 ( 114-111 , equals 82.1 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.498 ( 121-122 , equals 80.7 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.474 ( 117-130 , equals 76.7 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.406 ( 102-149 , equals 65.8 wins over one season)

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.596 ( 124-84 , equals 96.6 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.404 ( 84-124 , equals 65.4 wins over one season)
by division
1 - AL-C - 0.640
2 - AL-E - 0.603
3 - AL-W - 0.533
4 - NL-C - 0.446
5 - NL-E - 0.431
6 - NL-W - 0.333

Athletics Chasing Angels -- And Have 19-Rank Balance Advantage

Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

1 - HOU
2 - KAN
3 - LAD
4 - TOR
5 - NYM
6 - OAK - not good enough in own division
7 - CLE
8 - WAS - not good enough at home
9 - MIN
10 - SEA - not good enough at home
11 - NYY - not good enough in own division
12 - CIN - not good enough in own division
13 - STL - not good enough at home
14 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
15 - FLA - too dependent on own division
16 - PHI - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
17 - COL - too dependent on homestands
18 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
19 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
20 - SDG - too dependent on own division
21 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
22 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
23 - BAL - not good enough in own division
24 - DET - not good enough in own division
25 - LAA - not good enough at home
26 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
27 - ARI - too dependent on own division
28 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
29 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
30 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division

Phillies Win Divisional Series Over Cards, But Wild Card Rays Take LA For A Ride

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

AL East Holds Top Two Power Ranks

Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - MIN
9 - PHI
10 - STL
11 - BAL
12 - MIL
13 - TEX
14 - TOR
15 - DET
16 - FLA
17 - ATL
18 - CLE
19 - ARI
20 - KAN
21 - NYM
22 - PIT
23 - HOU
24 - LAD
25 - CIN
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

---

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - HOU
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

NL Hurting -- That's All There Is To Say

MLB League Rankings (including strength of schedule)
1 - AL - 61.6%
2 - NL - 38.4%

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0.583 ( 116-83 , equals 94.4 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0.417 ( 83-116 , equals 67.6 wins over one season)

MLB Division Rankings (including strength of schedule)
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 63.4%
3 - AL-W - 61.4%
4 - AL-C - 58.4%
5 - NL-E - 33.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0.573 ( 137-102 , equals 92.9 wins over one season)
2 - NL-C - 0.540 ( 148-126 , equals 87.5 wins over one season)
3 - AL-W - 0.507 ( 113-110 , equals 82.1 wins over one season)
4 - AL-C - 0.490 ( 117-122 , equals 79.3 wins over one season)
5 - NL-E - 0.478 ( 117-128 , equals 77.4 wins over one season)
6 - NL-W - 0.411 ( 102-146 , equals 66.6 wins over one season)

Final Record Predictions and Playoff Pace: June 25, 2008

The American League is pretty linear - that is, the teams' propensity to enter the postseason roughly corresponds to their record - but the National League is not even close. The Dodgers are projected to win 77 games but are #6 in propensity to win a divisional championship because they play in the West, whereas St. Louis will win 87 games but is only #8 on the divisional championship list because of their difficult Central division. The Cardinals, however, can gloat about their top position in the wild card race, where the Dodgers are only #7.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 98 - 64
2 - BOS : 95 - 67
3 - TAM : 92 - 70
4 - LAA : 92 - 70
5 - CHW : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 90 - 72
7 - PHI : 87 - 75
8 - STL : 87 - 75
9 - MIL : 84 - 78
10 - NYY : 84 - 78
11 - MIN : 83 - 79
12 - ATL : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - TOR : 81 - 81
15 - ARI : 81 - 81
16 - BAL : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 81 - 81
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - CLE : 80 - 82
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 76 - 86
24 - KAN : 76 - 86
25 - CIN : 73 - 89
26 - SFO : 72 - 90
27 - COL : 68 - 94
28 - SDG : 67 - 95
29 - SEA : 65 - 97
30 - WAS : 59 - 103

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (95 - 67)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
4 - OAK - 0.9285 (90 - 72)
5 - TAM - 0.7595 (92 - 70)
6 - TEX - 0.5941 (81 - 81)
7 - MIN - 0.4652 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.2712 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.2447 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.2084 (84 - 78)
11 - TOR - 0.0226 (81 - 81)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (81 - 81)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (76 - 86)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (92 - 70)
2 - OAK - 0.9251 (90 - 72)
3 - NYY - 0.7093 (84 - 78)
4 - MIN - 0.6766 (83 - 79)
5 - TOR - 0.6112 (81 - 81)
6 - BAL - 0.5993 (81 - 81)
7 - TEX - 0.5920 (81 - 81)
8 - DET - 0.5656 (80 - 82)
9 - CLE - 0.5504 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4104 (76 - 86)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (65 - 97)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8416 (82 - 80)
5 - FLA - 0.8321 (82 - 80)
6 - LAD - 0.7322 (77 - 85)
7 - NYM - 0.7211 (79 - 83)
8 - STL - 0.5365 (87 - 75)
9 - MIL - 0.4461 (84 - 78)
10 - SFO - 0.3823 (72 - 90)
11 - PIT - 0.1872 (78 - 84)
12 - HOU - 0.1270 (76 - 86)
13 - COL - 0.1123 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (73 - 89)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (67 - 95)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (87 - 75)
2 - MIL - 0.9197 (84 - 78)
3 - ATL - 0.8510 (82 - 80)
4 - FLA - 0.8414 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.7292 (79 - 83)
6 - PIT - 0.6896 (78 - 84)
7 - LAD - 0.6674 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6361 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5233 (73 - 89)
10 - SFO - 0.4863 (72 - 90)
11 - COL - 0.3465 (68 - 94)
12 - SDG - 0.2884 (67 - 95)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

Wild Cards Boot Out Angels and Phillies

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 4 seed TAM over no. 2 seed LAA in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 4 seed STL over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed TAM in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 25, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.0%
2 - NL - 38.0%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHC
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - MIN
8 - STL
9 - NYY
10 - BAL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 67.7%
3 - AL-W - 65.9%
4 - AL-C - 58.8%
5 - NL-E - 30.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - MIN
7 - NYY
8 - BAL
9 - TOR
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - STL
3 - MIL
4 - PHI
5 - FLA
6 - ARI
7 - ATL
8 - PIT
9 - HOU
10 - NYM
11 - LAD
12 - CIN
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Today's Rising and Falling Teams

Ballclub Trend Mapping

Clear Playoff Material
1 - TAM
2 - OAK
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - CHC

A Blast to Watch
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - DET
9 - LAA
10 - BAL

Quickening Our Interest
11 - CLE
12 - KAN
13 - TEX
14 - MIL
15 - TOR

On the Skids -- Yet Strong Core
16 - PHI
17 - ATL
18 - NYM
19 - STL
20 - FLA

Pre-All Star Break Blues
21 - LAD
22 - CIN
23 - ARI
24 - COL
25 - PIT

Not a Chance, Methinks
26 - SEA
27 - HOU
28 - SFO
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

Chicago Cubs Regain World Series Championship Over Would-Be Repeat Red Sox

Also of note, the Angels climb into the no. 2 seed and play in the American League Championship Series.

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 5 games.
No. 2 seed LAA over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed LAA in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 24, 2008 -- NL Now 4 Of Top 11 Teams

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 60.7%
2 - NL - 39.3%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - PHI
9 - MIN
10 - STL
Bonus Ballclub
11 - MIL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 67.0%
3 - AL-W - 62.6%
4 - AL-C - 58.9%
5 - NL-E - 36.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - LAD
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Playoff Pace: June 23, 2008

Oakland in 2nd place both in division and wild card race ... St. Louis has to pray it gets the wild card since it's far behind in the Central ... Milwaukee 9th in division championship race but 3rd in wild card race (it's possible!) ... Yankees 10th in division championship race but 3rd in wild card race as well ...

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (96 - 66)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - LAA - 1.0000 (90 - 72)
4 - OAK - 0.9728 (89 - 73)
5 - TEX - 0.7131 (81 - 81)
6 - TAM - 0.6861 (91 - 71)
7 - MIN - 0.5220 (83 - 79)
8 - DET - 0.4091 (81 - 81)
9 - CLE - 0.3803 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.3211 (85 - 77)
11 - BAL - 0.0255 (80 - 82)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (59 - 103)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (74 - 88)
12 - TOR - 0.0000 (80 - 82)

AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - OAK - 0.9358 (89 - 73)
3 - NYY - 0.8134 (85 - 77)
4 - MIN - 0.7282 (83 - 79)
5 - TEX - 0.6859 (81 - 81)
6 - DET - 0.6694 (81 - 81)
7 - BAL - 0.6622 (80 - 82)
8 - CLE - 0.6543 (80 - 82)
9 - TOR - 0.6492 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4562 (74 - 88)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (59 - 103)

NL Division Championship Pace
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (88 - 74)
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (101 - 61)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (81 - 81)
4 - ATL - 0.8392 (83 - 79)
5 - FLA - 0.8062 (83 - 79)
6 - LAD - 0.7979 (78 - 84)
7 - NYM - 0.7604 (81 - 81)
8 - STL - 0.4203 (86 - 76)
9 - MIL - 0.3162 (83 - 79)
10 - SFO - 0.2616 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.2030 (70 - 92)
12 - PIT - 0.0702 (77 - 85)
13 - HOU - 0.0257 (76 - 86)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (75 - 87)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (60 - 102)

NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (86 - 76)
2 - ATL - 0.9046 (83 - 79)
3 - MIL - 0.8962 (83 - 79)
4 - FLA - 0.8690 (83 - 79)
5 - NYM - 0.8196 (81 - 81)
6 - LAD - 0.7108 (78 - 84)
7 - PIT - 0.6513 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.6070 (76 - 86)
9 - CIN - 0.5814 (75 - 87)
10 - SFO - 0.4267 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.3957 (70 - 92)
12 - SDG - 0.2881 (68 - 94)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (60 - 102)

Angels Take Red Sox For 5-Game Ride In Divisional Series; Fall Short

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

The Angels finally make it into the Divisional Series, beating out Oakland by a game for the West title. Yes, we know that Los Angeles's record has shown their strength for quite a while now, but the Athletics only this past weekend fell below the level of the Angels. Even though the A's series win against Florida was impressive, the Angels were even more so as they swept Philly in Pennsylvania.

By pure run differential, Oakland is by far superior at 1.226 runs scored per 1 run allowed to Los Angeles at 1.043 runs scored. The basic Pythagorean final record prediction places the A's at 93 wins (current record of .547 plus .592 over the remaining games) and the Angels at 91 wins (.605 now plus .519 the rest of the way), giving Oakland the AL West championship. However - and this is a big however - Oakland's play against strength of schedule and just plain win-loss record does not bear out the prediction that they can win 93 games in 2008. Baseball Playoffs Now employs a "gravitate towards the mean" filter to punish teams who have excellent run differentials but mediocre win-loss records, and to reward teams who have poor differentials but mediocre records.

Adding each team's propensity to actually win games - and not just score runs - Oakland loses 4 wins and Los Angeles loses 1 win, placing the A's at 89 wins and the Angels at 90. Hence, Los Angeles wins the division and the right to lose to Boston in the first round of the playoffs.

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed LAA in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Who's Afraid Of The National League?

The American League's dominance is borne out in wins and losses as well as statistical analysis. Below you'll find the AL beating up on the NL (approximately 60%-40% in overall ratings [including strength of schedule] and exactly 57.5%-42.5% on the field of play).

Four divisions also prove their overall ratings with the same ranking in pure wins and losses: the AL East, NL Central, AL West, and NL West are ranked #1, #2, #3, and #6, respectively, in both Baseball Playoffs Now's analysis and win-loss rankings. And even though the NL East is marginally better than the AL Central on the field, the Central gets a big boost in the rankings because much of their schedule is made up of other strong American League clubs. The NL East, on the other hand, has no such claim.

Finally, I'd like to point out exactly how far apart 57.5% (the current AL interleague record) is from its NL counterpart. Were the AL a single ballclub, it would be on pace to win over 93 games this season. The National League doesn't clear 69.

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 60.1%
2 - NL - 39.9%

Interleague Play Records
1 - AL - 0,575 (equals 93,1 wins over one season)
2 - NL - 0,425 (equals 68,9 wins over one season)

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 64.9%
3 - AL-W - 58.4%
4 - AL-C - 57.0%
5 - NL-E - 41.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Out-of-Division Records
1 - AL-E - 0,570
2 - NL-C - 0,540
3 - AL-W - 0,502
4 - NL-E - 0,487
5 - AL-C - 0,482
6 - NL-W - 0,415

Baseball Rankings Now: June 23, 2008 -- AL Still Strong, But NL Pushes Another Team Into Top Ten

A thrilling series win in Boston propels St. Louis into the Baseball Playoffs Now top ten. It's not quite enough to knock Boston out of first place, but now only three-hundredths of a percentage point separate the Red Sox from the hungry Cubs:

Overall Rating
1 - BOS - 0.9497
2 - CHC - 0.9494
3 - TAM - 0.8962

Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - CHC
3 - TAM
4 - LAA
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - NYY
8 - PHI
9 - MIN
10 - STL
11 - BAL
12 - MIL
13 - TEX
14 - TOR
15 - DET
16 - FLA
17 - ATL
18 - CLE
19 - NYM
20 - ARI
21 - PIT
22 - LAD
23 - KAN
24 - HOU
25 - CIN
26 - COL
27 - SFO
28 - SDG
29 - SEA
30 - WAS

---

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - LAA
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - MIN
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - TOR
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - FLA
6 - ATL
7 - NYM
8 - ARI
9 - PIT
10 - LAD
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Orioles, Tigers Making Their Moves

Ballclub Trend Mapping

Just Try And Stop Us
1 - BOS
2 - CHW
3 - NYY
4 - OAK
5 - TAM

Eyes On The Prize
6 - DET
7 - CHC
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - PHI

Flashes Of Brilliance
11 - MIN
12 - KAN
13 - TOR
14 - TEX
15 - ATL

Maybe...But We'd Rather Not
16 - MIL
17 - LAA
18 - NYM
19 - FLA
20 - COL

Stumbling
21 - LAD
22 - STL
23 - ARI
24 - PIT
25 - SEA

Don't Expect Any Miracles
26 - CIN
27 - SFO
28 - SDG
29 - HOU
30 - WAS

Daily Playoff Prediction: June 20, 2008 -- Boston Wins Another One

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 20, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.5%
2 - NL - 36.5%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - CHC
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - LAA
8 - PHI
9 - BAL
10 - TOR

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-C - 49.1%
3 - AL-W - 45.1%
4 - NL-C - 41.6%
5 - NL-E - 30.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - NYY
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - TOR
9 - MIN
10 - DET
11 - TEX
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - ATL
5 - STL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - LAD
10 - PIT
11 - HOU
12 - CIN
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

New Playoff Pace Rankings -- Current Odds For October

To determine division championship pace, we project the final records of every team in baseball, then figure out who's in front and how far behind every other team is. The same is true for the wild card predictions, just with the projected division leaders removed.

These numbers do not mean that Boston, Chicago WS, and Oakland have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Rather, the 1.0000 ratings mean that they hold the strongest projected records (and therefore best predicted chance) and everyone else is measured relative to them.

AL Division Championship Pace
1 - BOS - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - CHW - 1.0000 (93 - 69)
1 - OAK - 1.0000 (89 - 73)
4 - LAA - 0.9029 (86 - 76)
5 - TEX - 0.6967 (80 - 82)
6 - TAM - 0.5921 (91 - 71)
7 - DET - 0.4128 (80 - 82)
8 - CLE - 0.3897 (80 - 82)
9 - MIN - 0.3766 (80 - 82)
10 - NYY - 0.3163 (86 - 76)
11 - TOR - 0.0275 (81 - 81)
12 - SEA - 0.0000 (58 - 104)
12 - KAN - 0.0000 (72 - 90)
12 - BAL - 0.0000 (80 - 82)


AL Wild Card Pace
1 - TAM - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
2 - LAA - 0.8522 (86 - 76)
3 - NYY - 0.8473 (86 - 76)
4 - TOR - 0.6873 (81 - 81)
5 - DET - 0.6760 (80 - 82)
6 - BAL - 0.6721 (80 - 82)
7 - CLE - 0.6609 (80 - 82)
8 - TEX - 0.6576 (80 - 82)
9 - MIN - 0.6523 (80 - 82)
10 - KAN - 0.4056 (72 - 90)
11 - SEA - 0.0000 (58 - 104)


NL Division Championship Pace
1 - PHI - 1.0000 (91 - 71)
1 - CHC - 1.0000 (98 - 64)
1 - ARI - 1.0000 (83 - 79)
4 - ATL - 0.7696 (84 - 78)
5 - FLA - 0.7400 (83 - 79)
6 - LAD - 0.7047 (79 - 83)
7 - NYM - 0.6523 (81 - 81)
8 - STL - 0.4673 (85 - 77)
9 - MIL - 0.3341 (82 - 80)
10 - SFO - 0.1759 (71 - 91)
11 - PIT - 0.1084 (77 - 85)
12 - COL - 0.0754 (69 - 93)
13 - HOU - 0.0297 (75 - 87)
14 - SDG - 0.0000 (68 - 94)
14 - CIN - 0.0000 (74 - 88)
14 - WAS - 0.0000 (62 - 100)


NL Wild Card Pace
1 - STL - 1.0000 (85 - 77)
2 - ATL - 0.9516 (84 - 78)
3 - FLA - 0.9149 (83 - 79)
4 - MIL - 0.8596 (82 - 80)
5 - NYM - 0.8066 (81 - 81)
6 - LAD - 0.7102 (79 - 83)
7 - PIT - 0.6218 (77 - 85)
8 - HOU - 0.5388 (75 - 87)
9 - CIN - 0.5075 (74 - 88)
10 - SFO - 0.3631 (71 - 91)
11 - COL - 0.2971 (69 - 93)
12 - SDG - 0.2476 (68 - 94)
13 - WAS - 0.0000 (62 - 100)

Major League Baseball 2008 Final Four: Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series Projection***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

Cubs Holding Second-Most Unbalanced Record

Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

The Cubs sit at #29 (too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division). Here's the breakdown:

Chicago Cubs overall record: 45 - 27 (.625)
Home: 29 - 8 (.784)
Away: 16 - 19 (.457)
Within NL Central: 18 - 15 (.545)
Outside NL Central: 27 - 12 (.692)

A perfectly balanced ballclub would have all four sub-records (home, away, within division, outside division) equal to its overall record. The Cubs have a road record far different from their overall record plus an in-division record somewhat removed from the overall record. The average of these differences is greater than the averages of 28 other baseball teams, meaning that the strength of the Cubs has been subject to location much more than other teams.

1 - HOU
2 - LAD
3 - TOR
4 - SEA
5 - CLE
6 - PHI - not good enough at home
7 - FLA - too dependent on own division
8 - NYM
9 - OAK - not good enough in own division
10 - KAN - not good enough at home
11 - WAS - not good enough at home
12 - NYY - not good enough in own division
13 - STL - not good enough at home
14 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
15 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
16 - CIN - not good enough in own division
17 - COL - not good enough in own division
18 - SDG - too dependent on homestands
19 - MIN - too dependent on own division
20 - BAL - not good enough in own division
21 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
22 - TAM - too dependent on homestands
23 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
24 - LAA - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
25 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
26 - DET - not good enough in own division
27 - ARI - too dependent on own division
28 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
29 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division

NL Central Retakes Position As Second-Best Division

NL Central yesterday: Cincinnati lost to the Dodgers, Milwaukee beat Toronto, St. Louis fell to Kansas City, Houston gave up an extra-inning battle to Baltimore, the Cubs lost both the game and Zambrano to Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh couldn't keep up with the White Sox.

All in all, it was a pretty bad day for the NL Central. Yet they retook division place #2, since yesterday's second-place AL West also hit bottom:

A Mets 10th-inning home run beat the Angels, Florida trampled Seattle, Arizona absolutely blew away Oakland by 10 runs, and Texas didn't win at home against Atlanta.

As much as the league rankings show an American League dominance, it's nice to know that the NL is giving licks as well as taking them.

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 62.3%
2 - NL - 37.7%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - CHC
5 - OAK
6 - NYY
7 - LAA
8 - PHI
9 - TOR
10 - BAL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 49.4%
3 - AL-C - 48.5%
4 - AL-W - 46.7%
5 - NL-E - 39.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - NYY
6 - LAA
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - MIN
10 - DET
11 - TEX
12 - CLE
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - MIL
6 - FLA
7 - ARI
8 - NYM
9 - PIT
10 - LAD
11 - CIN
12 - HOU
13 - COL
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Cubs, BoSox Finish Season With 98 Wins

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - BOS : 98 - 64
2 - CHC : 98 - 64
3 - CHW : 93 - 69
4 - TAM : 91 - 71
5 - PHI : 91 - 71
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - LAA : 86 - 76
8 - NYY : 86 - 76
9 - STL : 85 - 77
10 - ATL : 84 - 78
11 - FLA : 83 - 79
12 - ARI : 83 - 79
13 - MIL : 82 - 80
14 - NYM : 81 - 81
15 - TOR : 81 - 81
16 - DET : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 80 - 82
18 - CLE : 80 - 82
19 - TEX : 80 - 82
20 - MIN : 80 - 82
21 - LAD : 79 - 83
22 - PIT : 77 - 85
23 - HOU : 75 - 87
24 - CIN : 74 - 88
25 - KAN : 72 - 90
26 - SFO : 71 - 91
27 - COL : 69 - 93
28 - SDG : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 62 - 100
30 - SEA : 58 - 104

Boston Jealous of Gainesville, Takes 2008 WS

If the University of Florida can get a basketball-football-basketball trifecta, then why shouldn't Boston do the same in baseball-basketball-baseball?

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 6 games. ***

American League Sucker-Punches NL, Grabs 64% Of Power Ratings

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 63.6%
2 - NL - 36.4%

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - AL-W - 56.3%
3 - NL-C - 55.8%
4 - AL-C - 46.8%
5 - NL-E - 39.2%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

Ouch. The AL won 12 of 14 interleague games last night and severely damaged the senior circuit's rankings both in league measures and in the division rankings. The AL West pushed to #2, embarrassing the NL Central who only a few weeks ago was the undisputed leader of divisions. The NL East also felt the blow, reeling towards division rank #5 -- and the East was ranked #2 just twenty days past.

The latest interleague play records are:
AL - 59-42 (.584)
NL - 42-59 (.416) - equivalent to a team winning only 67 games in a regular season

Out-of-division standings:
1. AL East - 118-86 (.578)
2. NL Central - 126-105 (.545)
3. AL West - 98-97 (.503)
4. NL East - 104-106 (.495)
5. AL Central - 94-110 (.461)
6. NL West - 88-124 (.415)

As per the past week or two, the NL Central holds onto the no. 2 division standings in pure wins and losses and the NL East retains the no. 4 position. The reason that the Baseball Playoffs Now rankings stated at the top of this post switch the standings between #2 and #3, and #4 and #5, is that there is a very distinct difference in overall power rankings between AL teams and NL teams. The American League has simply done very well in interleague play, and the division rankings are a secondhand reflection of this record. By wins and losses alone, the NL is a small percentage behind the AL. But by strength of schedule and run differential, the AL increases its lead by a substantial amount.

Baseball Rankings Now: June 18, 2008 -- Crazy Good AL Holds 80% Of Top Ten

Only two NL teams are currently in the top 10. Even Baltimore and Texas made it ahead of St. Louis: Baltimore is over .500 in the toughest division and Texas is at .500 in the second-toughest division. Today Cleveland is also ranked above St. Louis, but the numerical ratings are only 14-hundredths of one percent different and I think the system is just reacting to the AL's dominance by ranking the Indians' schedule that much more difficult. The Cardinals are pretty clearly superior to Cleveland.

Even though Atlanta has been in the top five teams in the National League since the beginning of the week with a series win against the Angels in California, we'll see how long that lasts. The Braves have a 27th-best ranking over the last 10 games (only three wins) and are on track to win only 84 games, according to Baseball Playoffs Now's final record prediction algorithms.

Overall Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - CHC (NL)
6 - LAA
7 - PHI (NL)
8 - NYY
9 - TOR
10 - BAL
=======
11 - TEX
12 - CLE
13 - STL
14 - DET
15 - MIN
16 - ATL
17 - MIL
18 - FLA
19 - PIT
20 - NYM
=======
21 - KAN
22 - ARI
23 - CIN
24 - LAD
25 - HOU
26 - SFO
27 - COL
28 - SEA
29 - SDG
30 - WAS

---

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - TEX
10 - CLE
11 - DET
12 - MIN
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - MIL
6 - FLA
7 - PIT
8 - NYM
9 - ARI
10 - CIN
11 - LAD
12 - HOU
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Detroit Tigers #9 In Baseball Upward Trends

Ballclub Trend Mapping

Building on the last post, here are the full trend results. Most trends correspond to current standings, but there are a couple surprises.

Warp Speed
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - BOS
4 - CHW
5 - OAK

Impressive
6 - TAM
7 - NYY
8 - CLE
9 - DET
10 - TOR

Stable and Improving
11 - BAL
12 - ATL
13 - STL
14 - PIT
15 - LAA

Unremarkable
16 - TEX
17 - FLA
18 - MIL
19 - NYM
20 - ARI

Warning Signs
21 - CIN
22 - KAN
23 - MIN
24 - SFO
25 - SDG

Choking to Death
26 - COL
27 - LAD
28 - HOU
29 - WAS
30 - SEA

Yankees, Indians Teams To Watch -- Brewers Slipping

Teams on the Rise
1 NYY
2 CLE

Teams on the Fall
1 MIL

The Teams to Watch ranking is something of an über-metric within Baseball Playoffs Now. First we strip out all teams in 1st, 5th, and 6th places in the division. There is no reason that a 1st place team should be a team on the rise, since everyone already knows they are pretty good. Likewise, there is no reason that a 5th or 6th place team should be a team on the fall, since it's common knowledge that club is having a rough season.

For the same reasons, we strip out the top 8 teams by win-loss percentage for teams on the rise, and the bottom 8 teams by WL% for teams on the fall.

There are four important indicators in Teams to Watch that signal a team's direction: run differential, overall ranking, overall ranking versus win-loss percentage, and trends over the past 10 games. The first two make sure of a team's quality, the third - also known as overrated/underrated teams - is sort of a hidden measure of how a team is doing against public perception, and the fourth keeps this formula current.

Teams on the Rise must have above-average numbers in every single one of those measures, and Teams on the Fall must have below-average numbers in all of those indicators. Only one to five teams qualify for each label at any one time, and we present the top three to you.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 12th in win-loss percentage with a 36-33 record (.522), earning third place in the second-toughest division in baseball. Last month the Brew Crew stunk up the joint and plummeted to last in the division, but a recent surge put them right back in the running. After an interleague fight with old AL Central foe Minnesota, however, Milwaukee is beginning to need life support. Their vital signs:

- 0.957 runs scored for every 1 allowed
- #15 overall ranking, with a rating of 49.6% (relative to the Cubs at 100% and the Mariners at 0%)
- an overrated team, with their 12th-place win-loss percentage too good for their 15th-place ranking
- below-average record over the last 10 games (losing a series at home to the Twins and only going 3-3 against Colorado and Houston, two teams in fifth place)

On the other hand, the Yankees are 10th in win-loss percentage (37-33, .529) and 3rd in the AL East, with promising indicators: 1.055 runs scored for every 1 allowed, #8 overall (combined with a 10th-place win-loss percentage to make them an underrated team), and excellent 7-3 last 10 games (second-best in baseball).

Likewise, the Indians are 20th in WL% (33-37, .471) and 3rd in the AL Central. They score 1.076 runs for every 1 allowed, are #13 overall (much better than their win-loss percentage ranking), and are 8th in baseball over the last 10 games (6-4, with 2-2 away and 4-2 home).

It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Indians are in the top half of the strength of schedule rankings. Since the overall ranking indicator takes into account an infinite strength of schedule, the quality of opponents is a somewhat-large factor in the Teams to Watch measure.

Rays, Jays Fight Toughest Schedules In Baseball

Strength of schedule is calculated by adding wins and losses of each team's opponents, with allowances for home field advantage (currently 14.32%) and history (recent games weighted a bit more than earlier games). Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Seattle, and Cincinnati are around the bottom of their divisions, so it's easy to see why they have tough schedules. But other teams are not so obvious. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the AL East yet has played the toughest schedule in baseball. Not only is the East is the top division by far, but the Rays have played a brutal out-of-division schedule including the Angels, White Sox, and Cardinals. Schedule is an important reason that the Rays are #4 overall and the Blue Jays are #9 overall, even though they are second and last in their division, respectively.

Major League Baseball Strength of Schedule Rankings
1 - TAM
2 - TOR
3 - BAL
4 - SEA
5 - KAN
6 - MIN
7 - CIN
8 - OAK
9 - BOS
10 - NYY
11 - DET
12 - CLE
13 - PIT
14 - LAA
15 - CHW
16 - TEX
17 - HOU
18 - WAS
19 - MIL
20 - COL
21 - ATL
22 - NYM
23 - LAD
24 - SFO
25 - FLA
26 - SDG
27 - PHI
28 - CHC
29 - STL
30 - ARI

Chicago Cubs Take Back World Series Win From Boston

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 7 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 17, 2008 -- Yankees Making Power Grab

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 56.7%
2 - NL - 43.3%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - PHI
4 - TAM
5 - CHW
6 - OAK
7 - LAA
8 - NYY
9 - TOR
10 - STL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 68.6%
3 - NL-E - 53.7%
4 - AL-W - 44.3%
5 - AL-C - 37.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - FLA
6 - MIL
7 - PIT
8 - ARI
9 - NYM
10 - CIN
11 - HOU
12 - LAD
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS

Cleveland Has Most Balanced Record

Why not make this a 7-post day?

Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

1 - CLE
2 - HOU
3 - NYM
4 - PIT - too dependent on homestands
5 - FLA
6 - BAL - not good enough in own division
7 - PHI
8 - LAD
9 - STL - not good enough at home
10 - SDG - too dependent on homestands
11 - COL - not good enough in own division
12 - SEA - too dependent on own division
13 - OAK - not good enough in own division
14 - NYY - not good enough at home
15 - TAM - too dependent on homestands
16 - TOR - not good enough in own division
17 - WAS - not good enough at home
18 - KAN - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
19 - CIN - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
20 - MIL - too dependent on own division
21 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
22 - MIN - too dependent on own division
23 - LAA - not good enough at home
24 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
25 - DET - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
26 - ARI - too dependent on own division
27 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
28 - CHW - too dependent on own division
29 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
30 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division

Yankees on the Rise, Mets on the Fall

Here's another quick stats buffet for you. The Yankees are on the rise - finally - with the 2nd-best record in the past 10 games, and the Mets are falling with the 26th-best record over the last 10. In addition, the Yankees earned a positive run ratio (1.055 runs scored for every 1 run allowed) and the Mets, though they also have a positive run ratio at 1.011 : 1, fell barely under the average in that metric.

Underrated Teams
1 TOR
2 CHW
3 OAK

Overrated Teams
30 ARI
29 STL
28 FLA

---

Teams on the Rise
1 NYY
2 CLE

Teams on the Fall
1 NYM
2 FLA
3 MIL

---

Best Away Clubs
1 LAA
2 STL
3 PHI

Worst Away Clubs
30 ATL
29 SEA
28 COL

---

Best Home Clubs
1 BOS
2 CHC
3 TAM

Worst Home Clubs
30 SFO
29 SEA
28 WAS

New Final Record Prediction Method

Baseball Playoffs Now is all about good power ratings, and how those ratings can predict future performance. We've been using the Pythagorean method to predict future records (runs scored / (runs scored + runs allowed)) and it's been working well. But as a Phillies blog pointed out, a team's win pace has "absolutely nothing" to do with RS/RA. The win pace is simply the team's current winning percentage. Using runs scored and runs allowed is a good way to differentiate teams with similar records, and historically, real-world team records approach their Pythagorean records.

But using pure run differentials is no longer our method, since it ignores a full half of the power ratings. Our ratings are equal parts of wins/losses against infinite strength of schedule and runs scored/allowed against infinite strength of schedule. Therefore, our Final Record Predictions will reflect both of them.

The records below began as Pythagorean records, and you can see the pure Pyth predictions at today's earlier post. After seeing where run differentials place a team, however, we add or subtract games based on a team's simple propensity to win or lose games (ignoring all runs). So Boston stays at 99 wins since it ranks first in baseball with its pure win/loss record against its schedule. But Philadelphia falls 6 games, from 99 wins to 93 wins, because of its 68% W/L rating compared to Boston.

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - BOS : 99 - 63
3 - PHI : 93 - 69
4 - CHW : 90 - 72
5 - TAM : 90 - 72
6 - OAK : 89 - 73
7 - STL : 88 - 74
8 - LAA : 87 - 75
9 - NYY : 84 - 78
10 - ARI : 83 - 79
11 - ATL : 83 - 79
12 - TOR : 82 - 80
13 - FLA : 82 - 80
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 81 - 81
17 - TEX : 80 - 82
18 - DET : 80 - 82
19 - BAL : 79 - 83
20 - PIT : 79 - 83
21 - MIN : 78 - 84
22 - LAD : 77 - 85
23 - CIN : 76 - 86
24 - HOU : 76 - 86
25 - SFO : 72 - 90
26 - SDG : 71 - 91
27 - KAN : 69 - 93
28 - COL : 68 - 94
29 - WAS : 65 - 97
30 - SEA : 60 - 102

Can Chicago Win 105 Games?

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 105 - 57
2 - PHI : 99 - 63
3 - BOS : 99 - 63
4 - CHW : 94 - 68
5 - OAK : 93 - 69
6 - STL : 90 - 72
7 - TAM : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 88 - 74
9 - NYY : 85 - 77
10 - ARI : 85 - 77
11 - ATL : 85 - 77
12 - FLA : 83 - 79
13 - TOR : 83 - 79
14 - CLE : 82 - 80
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 80 - 82
17 - TEX : 79 - 83
18 - BAL : 79 - 83
19 - DET : 78 - 84
20 - PIT : 78 - 84
21 - MIN : 76 - 86
22 - LAD : 76 - 86
23 - HOU : 74 - 88
24 - CIN : 73 - 89
25 - SFO : 71 - 91
26 - SDG : 70 - 92
27 - COL : 66 - 96
28 - KAN : 66 - 96
29 - WAS : 64 - 98
30 - SEA : 60 - 102

Boston Red Sox Repeat As World Champions; Cubs Fans Burn City and Massacre Goats

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 5 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 6 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed BOS over no. 1 seed CHC in 7 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 16, 2008 -- Cubs Finally Fall From #1 Overall

Baseball-Wide Power Rankings
1 - BOS
2 - CHC
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - PHI
7 - LAA
8 - NYY
9 - TOR
10 - BAL
11 - STL
12 - CLE
13 - TEX
14 - DET
15 - MIN
16 - ATL
17 - MIL
18 - FLA
19 - PIT
20 - ARI
21 - CIN
22 - NYM
23 - HOU
24 - KAN
25 - LAD
26 - SFO
27 - SDG
28 - COL
29 - SEA
30 - WAS

And for easier reference:

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - NYY
7 - TOR
8 - BAL
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - DET
12 - MIN
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - ATL
5 - MIL
6 - FLA
7 - PIT
8 - ARI
9 - CIN
10 - NYM
11 - HOU
12 - LAD
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS

American League Smashes NL; Now Holds 60% Of Baseball Strength

This weekend's interleague ballgames gave us an excellent picture of how the National League stacks up against the junior circuit. Not only has the American League won approximately 60% of its games against the NL, but it also holds about 60% of the power ratings: a huge change from last week when the AL was at about 53% on both measures. What a difference an interleague weekend makes.

Note also the NL Central's percentage drop from 95% of the AL East's strength to only 64%, and the AL Central's climb to #4 in the division rankings. We now have much more parity between divisions.

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 60.9%
2 - NL - 39.1%

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 64.0%
3 - AL-W - 54.4%
4 - AL-C - 42.7%
5 - NL-E - 41.7%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

A's? Angels? Who Knows?

The Athletics have been the West champions for quite a while now in Baseball Playoffs Now. Their run differential and quality wins have far outstripped the current division leader Angels. But Oakland might not last much longer.

The latest AL Power Rankings have Los Angeles trailing Oakland by only one place:

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA

Of even more ominous import, check out their computer model ratings (on a scale from 0.0000 to 1.0000):

OAK: 0.6666
LAA: 0.6659

and final record prediction:

OAK: 90 - 72
LAA: 89 - 73

I'll leave all demonic 666 implications aside, but the bottom line is that Los Angeles is on the brink of eclipsing Oakland in the computer models. Because the models take into account infinite strength of schedule, Los Angeles has taken a while to build up enough good opponents to rival Oakland, and Oakland has choked just enough on their schedule to allow the Angels to catch up. Today's game could throw the entire division championship prediction to Los Angeles.

The same thing happened to Atlanta over the past couple of weeks. A great run differential was smashed by the later-blooming Phillies and a sputtering Braves offense. No prediction lasts forever.

Large Rift Between Two Great Baseball Divisions And Mediocre Followers

I have been more and more surprised over the past few days to see how the Baseball Playoffs Now algorithms have been ranking divisions. Take a look at the current numbers:

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 95.9%
3 - AL-W - 37.4%
4 - NL-E - 29.5%
5 - AL-C - 9.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

The discrepancy between the #2 division and #3 division is frankly startling, and I set out to explore why the formulae think the AL East and NL Central should get all the glory.

Divisions are ranked by averaging the Power Ratings of all teams within the division on a couple different scales. First, let's look at the Power Ratings for some divisions:

AL East (#1 ranked division)
BAL : 0.5125
BOS : 0.8681
NYY : 0.4939
TAM : 0.8476
TOR : 0.6290

NL Central (#2 ranked division)
CHC : 0.9769
CIN : 0.4909
HOU : 0.5185
MIL : 0.6365
PIT : 0.5180
STL : 0.6829

AL West (#3 ranked division)
LAA : 0.6659
OAK : 0.6666
SEA : 0.1034
TEX : 0.4611

NL East (#4 ranked division)
ATL : 0.4621
FLA : 0.4130
NYM : 0.3601
PHI : 0.7772
WAS : 0.0396

Power Ratings are equal measures of a team's pure wins and losses against infinite strength of schedule and a team's runs scored and runs allowed against infinite strength of schedule. They're very accurate and excellent tools for rating the past performance of teams.

But the division ranking system also explores the divisions' records when playing out-of-division games. Here are the quality wins of all divisions when playing outside their division (measured in percentage, where 1.000 is the best and 0.000 is the worst):

AL-E : 0.899
AL-C : 0.000
AL-W : 0.265
NL-E : 0.459
NL-C : 1.000
NL-W : 0.146

The NL Central holds a tenuous lead on this statistic, going 118 - 89 (.570) outside the Central. The AL East owns a record of 104 - 79 (.568), but Baseball Playoffs Now factors in additional numbers to create "quality wins:" home field advantage, run differential, and more weight to recent games. The NL Central widens its lead by doing well in these categories.

Moving down a rung on the out-of-division records, the NL East's mediocre WL% of 91 - 95 (.489) is not enough to hold off the AL West at 89 - 88 (.503), yet quality wins again make the difference. The NL East has been playing well as of late outside the division, and doing so more often outside their home ballparks with larger run differentials. But that's not enough to save the East. Quality wins outside the division only counts for about a third of a division's rating, and the NL East suffers from low Power Ratings in the other two-thirds.

For as many missteps as the AL West has made (Oakland has recently lost series to Toronto and the New York Yankees, Texas fell to Tampa and Cleveland, and Seattle has choked on everything), the NL East kept pace. Washington is the worst team in baseball and the Mets are #22.

Even as the #3 ranked division, the AL West rates only 37.4% on a scale from the AL East (top) to the NL West (bottom). Both the AL West and the NL East have a lot of work to do if they hope to compete with the top two divisions.

White Sox Lose AL Championship to Boston; Cubs Still Win It All

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 7 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 13, 2008 -- Cubs, BoSox, Rays Top Charts

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.4%
2 - NL - 46.6%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - CHW
5 - PHI
6 - STL
7 - OAK
8 - LAA
9 - MIL
10 - TOR

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 95.9%
3 - AL-W - 37.4%
4 - NL-E - 29.5%
5 - AL-C - 9.0%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - TOR
7 - BAL
8 - NYY
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - SEA
14 - KAN

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - ARI
6 - HOU
7 - PIT
8 - CIN
9 - ATL
10 - LAD
11 - FLA
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS

Cubs Win World Series in 7; Playoff Prediction Methods Explained

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

I'd like to shed some light on how Baseball Playoffs Now predicts the postseason. Our final record predictions generate division placements and the wild card team, based on a history-weighted pythagorean method. Once we know the playoff teams, we turn to a completely different statistic to figure out who are the better teams.

Our Power Rankings are compiled using both pure wins/losses and runs scored/allowed in two separate algorithms, both rated against an infinite strength of schedule matrix. But run differential is the best single predictor of upcoming performance, so Baseball Playoffs Now weights that factor much more heavily when creating a special stat called Playoff Ratings. The only use for this statistic is picking winners in our playoff predictions; we don't publish it as Power Rankings because it is skewed too far away from wins and losses.

Using Eric Seidman's Home Field Advantage article to determine HFA, we give a (small) home field advantage to the proper teams' ratings. The winner of the series is therefore simply the team with the higher rating.

Mathematics, backed up by Seidman's data, also returns the probabilities that a series will extend to 3, 4, or 5 games (in the case of the Divisional Series) or 4, 5, 6, or 7 games (in the case of the League Championship and World Series):

The math: (coin flip for winner [or use historical data, but there is only a very small difference] ^ number of games in series) x number of possible outcomes in which the series lasts that long

Divisional Series:
3 games = 0.5^3 x 2 = 25%
4 games = 0.5^4 x 4 = 25%
5 games = 0.5^5 x 16 = 50%

League/World Series:
4 games = 0.5^4 x 2 = 12.5%
5 games = 0.5^5 x 8 = 25%
6 games = 0.5^6 x 20 = 31.25%
7 games = 0.5^7 x 40 = 31.25%

Using these numbers, we use some fuzzy math to generate the least-scientific prediction of this entire site: series lengths. We figure out the greatest difference in Playoff Rating between teams in the playoffs, then figure out about where the two teams in each series lie in that range. Plugging that percentage into the probabilities above, we can approximate series lengths.

And voilà!

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 7 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 12, 2008 -- LA Angels Climbing

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.4%
2 - NL - 46.6%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - BOS
4 - CHW
5 - PHI
6 - STL
7 - OAK
8 - LAA
9 - TOR
10 - MIL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 96.3%
3 - AL-W - 42.6%
4 - NL-E - 33.7%
5 - AL-C - 8.4%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - BOS
3 - CHW
4 - OAK
5 - LAA
6 - TOR
7 - BAL
8 - TEX
9 - NYY
10 - CLE
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - SEA
14 - KAN

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - HOU
6 - PIT
7 - ARI
8 - LAD
9 - ATL
10 - CIN
11 - FLA
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Phillies Drop Back Below 100 Wins, White Sox Catching Up

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - PHI : 99 - 63
3 - CHW : 98 - 64
4 - BOS : 95 - 67
5 - STL : 92 - 70
6 - TAM : 90 - 72
7 - OAK : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 89 - 73
9 - ARI : 88 - 74
10 - TOR : 86 - 76
11 - ATL : 86 - 76
12 - FLA : 84 - 78
13 - LAD : 83 - 79
14 - NYY : 81 - 81
15 - MIL : 81 - 81
16 - CLE : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 80 - 82
18 - HOU : 80 - 82
19 - TEX : 79 - 83
20 - NYM : 79 - 83
21 - PIT : 77 - 85
22 - CIN : 76 - 86
23 - MIN : 74 - 88
24 - SFO : 74 - 88
25 - DET : 73 - 89
26 - SDG : 66 - 96
27 - COL : 64 - 98
28 - KAN : 63 - 99
29 - WAS : 61 - 101
30 - SEA : 61 - 101

Chicago Teams Continue World Series Domination

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 11, 2008 -- AL East, NL Central Best Divisions By Far

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.2%
2 - NL - 46.8%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - PHI
6 - OAK
7 - TOR
8 - STL
9 - LAA
10 - MIL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 89.3%
3 - NL-E - 33.7%
4 - AL-W - 27.0%
5 - AL-C - 9.3%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - NYY
9 - CLE
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - STL
4 - MIL
5 - HOU
6 - ARI
7 - CIN
8 - PIT
9 - ATL
10 - LAD
11 - FLA
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - COL
15 - SDG
16 - WAS

Canada, Ohio Today's Most Underrated Teams

Underrated Teams (Baseball Playoffs Now rating v. win-loss record)
1 TOR
2 CIN
3 CLE

Overrated Teams
30 LAA
29 FLA
28 STL

---

Teams on the Rise
1 CLE

Teams on the Fall
1 MIN
2 FLA
3 TEX

---

Better Away
1 SFO
2 WAS
3 LAA

Better at Home
30 BOS
29 ATL
28 MIL

Balance Rankings - Cards, Twins Worst

Balance Rankings

(Measure of perfect balance between home/away records & in-division/out-of-division records -- and not at all reflective of how well a team is doing in the standings.)

1 - HOU
2 - TAM
3 - KAN
4 - OAK
5 - PIT
6 - SEA
7 - TOR
8 - CLE - too dependent on own division
9 - LAD - too dependent on own division
10 - PHI
11 - BAL - not good enough in own division
12 - SDG
13 - ARI - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
14 - LAA - not good enough at home
15 - NYY
16 - TEX - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
17 - COL - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
18 - NYM - not good enough in own division
19 - CIN - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
20 - CHW - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
21 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
22 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
23 - WAS - not good enough at home
24 - FLA - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
25 - SFO - not good enough at home
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
28 - DET - not good enough in own division
29 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
30 - MIN - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division

All-Chicago World Series Taken To 6 Games

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 10, 2008 -- Rays #1 in AL

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.0%
2 - NL - 47.0%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - TAM
3 - CHW
4 - BOS
5 - PHI
6 - OAK
7 - TOR
8 - MIL
9 - LAA
10 - STL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 88.4%
3 - NL-E - 40.1%
4 - AL-W - 23.6%
5 - AL-C - 11.9%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - TAM
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - OAK
5 - TOR
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - CLE
9 - NYY
10 - TEX
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - STL
5 - CIN
6 - PIT
7 - ATL
8 - HOU
9 - ARI
10 - LAD
11 - NYM
12 - FLA
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS

Phillies Move Into 100-Win Club

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 103 - 59
2 - PHI : 100 - 62
3 - CHW : 98 - 64
4 - BOS : 97 - 65
5 - OAK : 91 - 71
6 - STL : 91 - 71
7 - TAM : 90 - 72
8 - LAA : 89 - 73
9 - ARI : 88 - 74
10 - ATL : 88 - 74
11 - TOR : 86 - 76
12 - FLA : 85 - 77
13 - MIL : 82 - 80
14 - LAD : 81 - 81
15 - NYY : 81 - 81
16 - NYM : 80 - 82
17 - BAL : 79 - 83
18 - TEX : 79 - 83
19 - HOU : 78 - 84
20 - CLE : 78 - 84
21 - PIT : 76 - 86
22 - CIN : 76 - 86
23 - MIN : 75 - 87
24 - SFO : 74 - 88
25 - DET : 73 - 89
26 - SDG : 67 - 95
27 - COL : 63 - 99
28 - KAN : 62 - 100
29 - WAS : 60 - 102
30 - SEA : 60 - 102

Cards Take NL Wild Card; Chicago over Boston in AL Championship Series

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.
No. 2 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 3 seed ARI in 3 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 4 seed STL in 3 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHW over no. 2 seed BOS in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed CHW in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 9, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 53.0%
2 - NL - 47.0%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - CHW
3 - BOS
4 - TAM
5 - PHI
6 - TOR
7 - OAK
8 - LAA
9 - MIL
10 - STL

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 83.4%
3 - NL-E - 47.8%
4 - AL-W - 25.3%
5 - AL-C - 11.8%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - CHW
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - BAL
8 - NYY
9 - TEX
10 - CLE
11 - MIN
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - STL
5 - ATL
6 - HOU
7 - PIT
8 - ARI
9 - CIN
10 - FLA
11 - LAD
12 - NYM
13 - SFO
14 - SDG
15 - COL
16 - WAS

Soccer (and Euro 2008) No Match For Baseball

I had an interesting discussion today with my German colleagues, who firmly believe that baseball is far more boring than soccer could ever be. We all realize that the best game is what you grow up with, so there can be no true resolution to this question. But I did throw out the following truth:

The average soccer game features 2.67 total goals scored over 90 minutes of play (but in reality, about 2 hours in front of the TV).

The average baseball game this season featured just over 9 runs total (4.75 runs for the home team plus 4.29 away; stats calculated on my own computer). The average game lasts 2:52 (but we'll say three hours for simplicity).

Soccer, therefore, offers the fan 1.33 goals per hour. By comparison, baseball's average scoring is 3 runs per hour -- a 2.25x advantage for America's pastime. So while the Euro Cup 2008 is interesting because of its rabid fans and playoff format, I still can't bring myself to watch the games like the Germans do. Luckily, my colleagues and I have both come to accept it.

Los Angeles Angels Kick Tampa Out Of Wild Card - Then Fall In 3 Games To BoSox

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 4 seed LAA in 3 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 3 seed OAK in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 5 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Baseball Ratings Now: June 6, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.6%
2 - NL - 47.4%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - OAK
6 - PHI
7 - CHW
8 - MIL
9 - ATL
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 93.9%
3 - NL-E - 76.0%
4 - AL-W - 41.5%
5 - AL-C - 34.4%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - OAK
5 - CHW
6 - LAA
7 - NYY
8 - TEX
9 - BAL
10 - MIN
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - ATL
5 - STL
6 - PIT
7 - HOU
8 - NYM
9 - CIN
10 - FLA
11 - ARI
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - SDG
16 - COL

Stats Buffet: June 5, 2008

Underrated Teams
1 TOR
2 PIT
3 CLE

Overrated Teams
30 LAA
29 STL
28 FLA

---

Best in First Place
1 CHC
2 BOS
3 CHW

Worst in First Place
6 ARI
5 LAA
4 PHI

---

Better Away
1 WAS
2 MIN
3 SFO

Better at Home
30 ATL
29 BOS
28 MIL

---

Teams on the Rise
1 TOR
2 OAK
3 CLE

Teams on the Fall
30 TEX

---

Most Balanced Clubs (what is this?)
1 CHW
2 CLE
3 KAN

Least Balanced Clubs
30 MIN
29 STL
28 WAS

Baseball-Wide Power Rankings, Final Record Predictions

Overall Rank
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - OAK
6 - CHW
7 - PHI
8 - MIL
9 - ATL
10 - LAA
11 - STL
12 - PIT
13 - NYM
14 - CIN
15 - HOU
16 - FLA
17 - CLE
18 - MIN
19 - NYY
20 - ARI
21 - TEX
22 - BAL
23 - LAD
24 - DET
25 - WAS
26 - SFO
27 - KAN
28 - COL
29 - SDG
30 - SEA

MLB Final Record Predictions
1 - CHC : 105 - 57
2 - PHI : 97 - 65
3 - BOS : 95 - 67
4 - OAK : 92 - 70
5 - CHW : 92 - 70
6 - ATL : 91 - 71
7 - STL : 90 - 72
8 - TAM : 90 - 72
9 - LAA : 89 - 73
10 - TOR : 89 - 73
11 - ARI : 88 - 74
12 - FLA : 85 - 77
13 - MIL : 84 - 78
14 - NYM : 83 - 79
15 - MIN : 82 - 80
16 - CLE : 81 - 81
17 - LAD : 80 - 82
18 - HOU : 79 - 83
19 - NYY : 79 - 83
20 - TEX : 79 - 83
21 - CIN : 77 - 85
22 - BAL : 76 - 86
23 - PIT : 76 - 86
24 - DET : 72 - 90
25 - SFO : 69 - 93
26 - WAS : 64 - 98
27 - SDG : 63 - 99
28 - KAN : 63 - 99
29 - SEA : 60 - 102
30 - COL : 60 - 102

Red Sox Creeping Up on Cubs -- Enough to Win World Series?

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed CHW in 4 games.
No. 2 seed OAK over no. 4 seed TAM in 4 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed OAK in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 4 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 6 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 5, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.5%
2 - NL - 47.5%

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 94.7%
3 - NL-E - 76.3%
4 - AL-W - 38.7%
5 - AL-C - 38.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - OAK
5 - CHW
6 - LAA
7 - CLE
8 - MIN
9 - NYY
10 - TEX
11 - BAL
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - MIL
4 - ATL
5 - STL
6 - PIT
7 - NYM
8 - CIN
9 - HOU
10 - FLA
11 - ARI
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

Symptom: Uneven Play; Disease: Unbalanced Club

Our illuminating new Balance Ranking measures how much teams rely on certain parts of the season. If homestands or away series are the primary cause of a team's record, they fall in this ranking. In the same manner, if divisional play or out-of-division play figures too highly in what makes a squad tick, then we penalize them. The highest-rated teams are those who have perfect balance between home and away records, and in-division and out-of-division records.

The Balance Rankings are no measure of success, as the Kansas City Royals (#1 in the list) can tell you. Yet playing the #2 White Sox or #3 Athletics will become much more scary, knowing that they can win anytime, anywhere. On the other hand, a non AL-Central team playing Minnesota in the Twin Cities can take heart.

Below we detail the symptoms of each team's "unbalance disease." And kudos to the Royals, who apparently figured out a way to lose to everyone everywhere, making them the most balanced team today.

Balance Rankings
1 - KAN
2 - CHW
3 - OAK
4 - SEA
5 - HOU
6 - SDG
7 - CLE - too dependent on homestands
8 - TOR
9 - LAD - too dependent on own division
10 - ARI - too dependent on own division
11 - COL
12 - PIT - not good enough at home
13 - BAL - not good enough in own division
14 - PHI - too dependent on homestands
15 - NYY - not good enough in own division
16 - MIL - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
17 - NYM - not good enough in own division
18 - TEX - too dependent on own division
19 - TAM - too dependent on homestands - too dependent on own division
20 - CIN - too dependent on homestands
21 - LAA - not good enough at home
22 - ATL - too dependent on homestands
23 - DET - not good enough in own division
24 - FLA - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
25 - SFO - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division
26 - CHC - too dependent on homestands - not good enough in own division
27 - BOS - too dependent on homestands
28 - WAS - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
29 - STL - not good enough at home - not good enough in own division
30 - MIN - not good enough at home - too dependent on own division

Never Mind, AL West - You Win

Further to the news of yesterday, in which the AL West choked away its lead over the AL Central:

I wrote, "In other words, the AL Central is better because it has the power to match the West's best teams - yet its weakest link is not nearly as poor as the West's worst."

That statement is no longer true. There is still a suspicious difference between the West's best and worst teams, enough to create a 10% difference between the divisions in that part of Baseball Playoffs Now's division rankings. But the Central lost that last hope last night as Cleveland lost to Texas, Detroit lost to Oakland, and Minnesota lost to Baltimore. Of the AL Central teams, only the White Sox won yesterday, and that was over fellow division member Kansas City.

As of now, the AL Central isn't skating by on the measure of divisional cohesion. Even though Seattle lost again and there continues to be a growing divide between the Western teams, that statistic - meant to be a sort of tiebreaker between divisions - has been overpowered by interdivisional play.

Blue Jays Fly Higher Than Angels

I just came across an interesting series by Sport Crack called Powerless Rankings, and I wanted to publicize my response to his latest rankings:

SportCrack
Worst: Rockies, then Royals, Mariners, Padres, and Tigers
Best: Cubs, then Rays, Angels, Phillies, Red Sox

Baseball Playoffs Now response
"The Powerless Rankings look good, though Detroit deserves a tiny bit more credit for playing the 12th-hardest schedule in the majors and playing better than half of baseball over the past ten games. I'd stick San Francisco there instead, but it's really a tossup.

I'm also impressed by the Cubs - Rays - Phillies - Red Sox picks, but I thoroughly disagree with your Angels #3 ranking. I'd place them around tenth in the league; their wins in very close games against sub-par opponents (22nd-hardest schedule) don't speak very well to their long-term viability. The Angels will win about 88 games - and lose the division to the A's by 2 games with no chance at the wild card.

Instead, give it up for the Toronto Blue Jays. They have consistently high numbers: 8th in quality wins, 9th-hardest schedule, best in baseball over the last 10 games, 4th overall in computer models against infinite-depth-of-schedule (that is, taking into account their opponents' opponents' opponents ad infinitum).

Baseball Playoffs Now Power Rankings
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - PHI

Runners-up: White Sox, A's, Braves, Brewers, Angels"

Cubs Continue Stranglehold on World Series Prediction

Major League Baseball Playoff Prediction

American League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 3 seed OAK in 4 games.
No. 2 seed CHW over no. 4 seed TAM in 5 games.

National League Divisional Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 4 seed ATL in 4 games.
No. 2 seed PHI over no. 3 seed ARI in 4 games.

American League Championship Series
No. 1 seed BOS over no. 2 seed CHW in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
No. 1 seed CHC over no. 2 seed PHI in 5 games.

*** World Series ***
*** No. 1 seed CHC over no. 1 seed BOS in 5 games. ***

Baseball Rankings Now: June 4, 2008

MLB League Rankings
1 - AL - 52.2%
2 - NL - 47.8%

Baseball's Top Ten Ballclubs
1 - CHC
2 - BOS
3 - TAM
4 - TOR
5 - PHI
6 - CHW
7 - OAK
8 - ATL
9 - MIL
10 - LAA

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100.0%
2 - NL-C - 91.3%
3 - NL-E - 74.7%
4 - AL-W - 37.4%
5 - AL-C - 33.6%
6 - NL-W - 0.0%

AL Power Ratings
1 - BOS
2 - TAM
3 - TOR
4 - CHW
5 - OAK
6 - LAA
7 - TEX
8 - MIN
9 - NYY
10 - BAL
11 - CLE
12 - DET
13 - KAN
14 - SEA

NL Power Ratings
1 - CHC
2 - PHI
3 - ATL
4 - MIL
5 - STL
6 - HOU
7 - PIT
8 - NYM
9 - ARI
10 - CIN
11 - FLA
12 - LAD
13 - WAS
14 - SFO
15 - COL
16 - SDG

NL Central Rebounds; AL West Chokes

We're back to status quo. The NL Central had faltered for a few days, falling behind the NL East to 3rd place among the divisions, and the AL West had moved from 5th place to 4th over the slumping AL Central.

Neither move lasted more than a week. Today's division rankings are back to their expected levels.

MLB Division Rankings
1 - AL-E - 100,0%
2 - NL-C - 85,7%
3 - NL-E - 77,1%
4 - AL-C - 35,1%
5 - AL-W - 32,0%
6 - NL-W - 0,0%

Measuring quality wins over the past 10 games, the teams in the NL Central have ranked an average of 7th place in the majors while the NL East teams ranked an average of 16th place.

The American League is a bit more complicated. The AL West has scored slightly better than the Central over the past 10 games (an average of 18th place on average versus 18.6th place on average for the AL Central), yet the West has fallen in our rankings. The reason is that when averaging the Baseball Playoffs Now rankings of each team in a division to produce the division's average rating, we use multiple types of averages.

Normal averages do not reflect the general tendency of a certain group of numbers. An arithmetic mean (normal average) can be skewed by either an unusually high or low number in the group, or it could fail to recognize the difference between a group of numbers that are very close in value and a group of numbers very disparate in value.

The latter problem applies to the AL Central - AL West division rankings. The Central's average ranking is 46.89% and the West's average ranking is 47.12%, so on the surface, the West is doing a bit better.

But using a function called the geometric mean, we see vast differences in the two divisions. The Central's geometric mean is 42.17% and the West's geometric mean is 32.82%, because the West's teams are far more spread out in their strengths than the Central's:

AL Central
CHW - 0.7714
CLE - 0.4897
DET - 0.3838
KAN - 0.1754
MIN - 0.5242

AL West
LAA - 0.6142
OAK - 0.7369
SEA - 0.0534
TEX - 0.4806

You will notice that the Central is grouped pretty securely around both 47% and 42%, their arithmetic and geometric means, respectively. But the West has huge differences between the top team(s) and the bottom team, which means that this division on the whole is somewhat weaker than the Central. In other words, the AL Central is better because it has the power to match the West's best teams - yet its weakest link is not nearly as poor as the West's worst.